It's the home stretch at university, and I seem to have mostly recovered from the lung infection.
Meanwhile, here's two news:
New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators, now with more indicators. His verdict:
The neutral to negative US$, and the surge in new orders in the regional Fed indexes, are evidence that the shallow industrial recession should be bottoming soon, and the positive turn in steel production augurs well also. Rail, however, is a solid negative. Gallup spending also argues that consumers are spending some of their gas savings. This is good news for the short term.I'd ask how much he's expecting 2010 behaviour from 2016. We're in a different part of the expansion now, so shouldn't interest rates be doing something different than they did before?
The problem is now with 2 of the long leading indicators. Interest rates have failed to make new lows for a long enough time to be counted a negative in the longer term forecast, although they are close enough to those lows to be positive for the shorter term "now-cast." Additionally, the very positive weekly housing metrics are not correlating well with the stalled monthly housing measures.
Reuters - California lawmakers reach $15 minimum wage deal. Ermagerd! Think of all the unemployment this is going to cause, according to all undergraduate economics!