Friday, March 4, 2016


Morning! There's some good reading out there today. Why don't you have a gander for yourself?

St. Louis Fed - is the US due for another recession? Tl;dr answer: No. Longer answer: quit piddling your frilly pink panties, you hedge fund cokeheads.

Calculated Risk - ISM non-manufacturing decreased in Feb. But it's still okay.

New Deal Demoncrat - ISM manufacturing says slowdown still has a way to go. He says this because new orders hasn't yet ticked up enough. Quote:
For me to be confident that this slowdown was ending, I would want to see new orders spike to at least 54. They didn't do that. That doesn't mean that I expect things to get worse. In fact there are encouraging signs in things like steel production and rial shipments that we may have bottomed. The failure of new orders to pick up means at least that we aren't out of the woods yet.
Ain't it nice when someone else follows the economy for you? That is, ain't it nice when someone who has some clue what he's talking about follows the economy for you?

Bespoke - health care is the only sector still below its 50-day. So if you're following any media that's still running piddle-pants stories, you can unsubscribe from them forever.

The Kruggatolah - Europe stalls. Quote:
What’s going on? Basically, “morning in euroland” — such as it was — reflected one-time developments that are now in the rear-view mirror.

First, there was the stabilization of financial markets after Draghi’s “whatever it takes”.

Then there was the end of ever-intensifying austerity, removing a big drag on growth[.]

Finally, there was a boost from the weakening of the euro (which I would attribute to market perception that Europe will stay weak indefinitely)[.]

All that is now past, so Europe can return to its normal state, which sure looks like secular stagnation.
Basically, what he's saying is that any uptick you ever saw in Europe this past year was little more than a snapback from policy-induced collapse.

der Spargel - German budget battle begins over refugees.  The article authors obviously know more about economics than Wolfgang Schauble, because they understand that spending on refugee integration is an investment in future growth, and it's eminently affordable when Germany can borrow at negative real rates; while Schauble feels he has to fund settlement (wait for it) through (wait for it) cutbacks in the rest of the budget (really no surprise there, was it).

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