Friday, March 11, 2016
Well, that's annoying. I was pretty sure SPY was going to break down and do a retrace of some of its recent advance, either on Euro disappointment or in fear of a March rate hike. But this morning, the premarket is threatening a gap-up above the March 4 high, which would be a very bullish buy signal.
Well, we'll see what happens. I still need to study for my Micro exam tonight, and then I have all weekend to study for my Macro exam (which is on a basic intertemporal microfoundations model, so that's complicated enough), and then next week I still think the Fed has a nearly-50/50 chance of raising rates which should make the market piddle its panties real good if people are still being as silly as they were last month.
So I may as well sit tight on my small position and see what happens. An explosive pop should not be in the cards for the next few days, I reckon.
In the meantime, here's a bit of news:
Calculated Risk - energy expenditures as percent of consumer spending. Hint: they've gone down. And the only people suffering from this are the people who've spent the last decade living off the market rent generated by an artificially high oil price: oil companies, Arab kleptocrats, Russian kleptocrats, and rabid neocons. The world is better off without all of them, so don't shed a tear.
New Deal Demoncrat - updating the midcycle indicators. We're past the midpoint, but I'd ask him whether all that means is that we're on the tightening end of the cycle. Because... um... we knew that already.
WaPo - blather about the size of Draghi's bazooka. If you're looking for where the next ultracollapse is going to happen, look at Europe. The way to drag Europe out of depression is through fiscal support, not these insane monetary measures; all he's doing is giving Germany more scope for budget cuts, thus facilitating depression economics. But I guess Draghi wants to keep pushing on that string? Maybe someone's promised him a cushy job at the IMF if he just obeys Schauble?