Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Some Toosday Noos

I'm sure Janet will move the market one way or another tomorrow. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if she asserts that

1) equity market pantypiddling by coked-up narcissistic psychopaths is none of her concern,
2) the jobs market is holding up well and she expects increasing wage inflation soon (though her own Fed staff have published papers explaining that wage inflation does not feed through to headline inflation), and
3) forward GDP indicators are turning up after the traditional winter sag, so therefore
4) she can't rule out a March rate hike.

Tim Duy knows more about this than me, and he seems to agree right now.

Big deal. It'll happen when it happens. In the meantime, I'm happy to sit back and watch the market get even farther behind the curve.

So here's some news:

Tim Duy - solid jobs report keeps Fed in play. As an aside, he has a recession pencilled in for 2018. He thinks the Fed goes too far with its hikes. Well, even if that's the case, the result will be more a Volcker recession than a 2008-style banking system collapse.

WSJ - what's behind January's strong wage growth. January is the time of year you get your piddly 3% raise. And also the time of year that your company's CEO banks his $50M bonus. Then again, the Fed knows this.

Antonio Fatas - this isn't the 2016 recession you're looking for.

Marc to Market - thoughts on Chinese capital flows. More depth than you get from Business Insider.

WaPo - Jared Bernstein posits a full employment productivity multiplier. Seems most of the interesting stuff that we should be studying in macroeconomics has been hidden in the Solow Residual.

der Spargel - Russia's propaganda war with Germany. And they're fighting a similar war in the USA, except there their allies are Ron Paul, Zerohedge, and the goldbug brigade.

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