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Tuesday, February 16, 2016

GDP is what, now?



GDPNow - this week's 1Q16 forecast. Um, it looks like this:


That's 2.7%, above the blue chip consensus even, which means all the stupid recession blather should be going away a few weeks from now.

So what's everything else looking like?

New Deal Demoncrat - new hires makes a new high. Which means new hires failed to peak, which means the US is still in an expansion. Even means Janet might be right after all that there is an acceleration coming in wage inflation.

New Deal Demoncrat - indicators continue to get less worse. USD especially has swung from bad to neutral. Which means an end to Lael's exogenous tightening.

Calculated Risk - LA port traffic hits record in January. Um, that's a good thing too, isn't it?

Or, of course, you could believe the blather of the doomers.


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