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Thursday, February 18, 2016

And some interesting evening news

Tim Duy the science guy - FOMC minutes and more.  Quote:
The Fed may be turning toward my long-favored policy position - the best chance they have of lifting off from the zero bound is letting the economy run hot enough that inflation becomes a genuine concern. That means following the cycle, not trying to lead it.
Which would be nice, since that'd mean Kruggers can dust off his DAD/DAS notes and lecture us some more about the significance of generating expected inflation in a deflationary environment: i-sub-e is an important thing, and maybe part of the negative-rates problem is just that expected inflation hasn't existed? I mean, except for the lunatic fringe, and even Republican hedge fund cokeheads have given up on that now.

Duy thinks this ultimately turns out bad as the Fed eventually find themselves falling behind the curve on inflation and responding with fast rate hikes to cause a Volcker recession.

I still don't think there will be any inflation. Except for inflation-expectations-inflation. There's too much money in the world trying to lend, and nobody's left who can borrow anymore. Except, y'know, governments, and it's not as if they're ever going to bother even meeting depreciation costs on public capital ever again, much less spending when they can borrow billions for 10 years at under 1.8% nominal.

Because that's communism.

Polemic's Pains - short-squeeze or base, or both? Well, Gary Wordsalad's 1750 S&P target hasn't been reached yet, and the goldbugs are crowing about how the Saviour's second coming is finally nigh, so I'd say this is the base, and the panty-piddling should be done shortly. And here's some wisdom for the idiots:
Now I am a great fan of charts but there comes a point where a chart is no longer relevant because it is of somewhere else and not where you are. Sure, 2008 patterns can be overlaid and extrapolated but they are not of these parts. 2008 was completely different. The banking system had frozen up and economies were collapsing. Now of course if you wish to follow that chart whilst we have no problem or anticipated problem of money transmission (shhh now in the cheap seats. We don’t), nor do we have a collapsing economy despite the markets trying to tell us we should, you can. But US data is far from recessionary and it doesn’t look as though Europe is in trouble either. Certainly not to the extent that would justify modelling the current markets on 2008. Following the chart of 2008 is like trying to navigate London using a GPS loaded with the Shanghai road map from 1946.
Too bad that idiots are exactly the sort of people who will never read wisdom because they're too busy linking their shitty blogs to the Ludwig von Mises Institute.

AP - IS faces budget crunch. The mass-murdering Islamic child-raping lunatics in Syria and Iraq have had to cut salaries, and while sure some of it might be due to American bombing (and not Russian bombing, which mostly targets the nefarious deeds of Doctors Without Borders), another big contributor has been the collapse in oil prices.

Which is funny, no? Ain't it really funny that all of the most despicable subhuman enemies of freedom in the world (e.g. Russia, Iran, Islamic mass murdering child rapists, the Republican party, Alberta) can be brought down just by a drop in the price of oil? Now it turns out they were just a bunch of fucking devolved mongrel-races all along, and they simply confused sheer luck in resource endowments with intellectual superiority.

I dunno, to me that's funny.

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