Wednesday, January 20, 2016


Here's some charts for you.

First, this past weekend's update to GDPNow:

This has been tanking for a while. However, the past two winters also came with highly anomalous winter quarter GDP readings, so I'd really just take this as proof that the Fed still hasn't figured out how they're fucking up their seasonal adjustments.

Nevertheless, Wall Street Whitey will look at the GDPNow reading as yet another indicator of recession and reason to sell the universe. So I guess the selling continues til spring. Put GDPNow in your hotlinks.

And here's the S&P500:

It's bullshit and silly, but this is the right hand side of a broken H&S, it actually does have volume and deformation on the right side so it does count as a valid H&S, and thus I guess Wall Street Whitey has no choice but to sell it down to 1500 because technical analysis works that way.

And here's $VIX:

A slow crawl up in $VIX since Xmas looks ominous, because if things really break this could pop to something nuts like 80. In which case maybe we see another August disconnect, where you can buy QQQ for 15% less than its underlying index.

And the $VIX term structure is inverted 6 months out. That shows fear too.

So, the overall market sentiment is best summarized by Bender and Parallel-Universe Bender:

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