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Friday, January 29, 2016

Friday evening news


The crackhead trade is now gone with Kuroda's negative rates, the oil trade is gone with news of Saudi Arabia talking to Iran about production costs, and thus correlation will start uncorrelating. All we need now is for word-salad doomer newsletter writers to prepare another narrative for when $SPX sails thru 2000.

I'm sure whatever they dream up, they'll remind us they were right all along. Just don't look at last year's model portfolio return.

With that, here's some news:

New Deal Demoncrat - Q4 GDP positives. Proprietors' income and median wages both increased.

Calculated Risk - Q4 GDP investment. And thus we see there can't be a recession coming because residential investment leads.

Tim Duy - FOMC recap. His prediction as to what data will bring a tightening in March, and which will make the Fed hold off. I guess the decision gets a little easier if oil stops dropping and the USD stops appreciating.

Andrew Batson - is China's slowdown really so hard to understand? His take:
It’s not like it’s a secret. From about 2003 to about 2010 China had the biggest construction boom of modern times and probably in all of human history. Then in 2011-12 the construction boom ended. That’s it. Really, that’s all you need to know.
The end.

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