Friday, November 13, 2015
BBC - Oisin Tymon denies he's Irish, admits he's a lazy cunt.
Apparently Jeremy Clarkson called him a "lazy Irish cunt" before love-tapping him in the face and making him go boo hoo like a little fucking girl.
So now the lazy Irish cunt who couldn't make sure Jazza was fed after a long day of Top Gear is now suing him for "racial discrimination".
Oisin, perhaps he didn't punch you for being Irish.
Perhaps he punched you for being a lazy cunt.
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
I'll be offline-ish til Thursday afternoon, studying.
In the meantime, enjoy yourself with some multiple choice tests from Mankiw's Intermediate Macro!:
Chapter 4 test
another Chapter 4 test
Chapter 9 test
Chapter 10 test
Chapter 11 test
an IS-LM test it seems
Because the Mankiw test bank is only so large and I really need to ace this test.
This post will self-destruct eventually.
at 5:32 PM
Here's a bit of stuff:
Gavyn Davies - ring the bell on the end of the deflation scare. The cold, uncaring data says that global industrial production is now rebounding, inflation rates in the advanced countries have stopped falling, inflation expectations in the markets have started to rise again, and goddammit will you all stop worrying about China.
New Deal Demoncrat - forecasting the 2016 economy. He goes into detail about the WLIs and his own LLIs, and links to a few earlier posts of his that are useful. As he notes, all of the long leading indicators but one are positive right now, so 2016 should be smooth sailing, so Whitey should quit piddling his frilly little pink panties.
John Quiggin - are recessions abnormal? Basically wonkish article for economics students. Put simply, classical economics does most definitely use an economy in equilibrium as its critical assumption, but in reality economic equilibrium never happens anywhere ever. Thus, classical economics is wrong.
Bron Suchecki - on Indian gold monetization. He reiterates a very important point that people seem to be ignoring:
As Jayant Bhandari observed in his Precious Metals Investment Symposium presentation, India is a negative-yielding economy, with nominal yields on property and stocks below the 10 year government bond (even cows return -6% assuming zero labour costs). In such an environment, a zero-yielding asset like gold is better than a negative yielding asset.Or more imply, it takes a very stupid investor to accept a negative real yield from an EM country that is going naked long EM currency short gold. I mean, how many EM currencies have appreciated against gold? I mean, ever?
The Indian government’s gold monetisation schemes, however, are more about addressing the symptom rather than the disease, which is the lack of trust in “payback”. Jayant says that high levels of corruption, superstition and irrationality in India “discourages accumulation of financial and intellectual capital”. But dealing with that, I guess, is a lot harder than trying to hoodwink “its population to take a leap of faith on the trust front”.
Why do I say hoodwink? Firstly, as I discussed in this post, the lending of any physical gold deposited in the schemes will have a one-off impact on throttling Indian gold imports. Secondly, as discussed in this post, the other uses the Government of India says it will make of the gold and the way it will run its Sovereign Gold Bonds Scheme mean that the government is simply going naked short gold in Rupees, as they themselves acknowledge in this press release:
“the risk of increase in gold price that will be borne by the government” and they “will not be hedged and all risks associated with gold price and currency will be borne by GoI”.
With that sort of risky behaviour from their own government, who really is stoopid – those holding physical gold or those trusting the government schemes?
Monday, November 9, 2015
New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators.
Housing, M1 & M2, tax withholding, gasoline usage all indicate the US economy is currently doing great.
Dammit school is annoying. A micro test this afternoon, then a macro test on Thursday. And I have to really study for macro, because I'm still not really getting IS-LM theory.
But I also have to complete a Polisci essay by next week. And the way I do essays is by taking loads of notes, compiling them into a single huge file of 10000 words or so, and then attempting to order them to see if a thesis comes out. Which is very inefficient, but it's the way I do things, I'm a holistic thinker.
Anyway, I can't link to NDD's weekly indicators, because he fucked up his URL and it seems xe.com isn't working anyway. But here's a couple charts:
I was getting suspicious of VIX's action last week so I cashed out on a few positions. Seems now it wants to spend a bit of time above its EMA(10). I doubt we'll get another volatility spike like August's, and I'm sure the rest of the market is fearing that.
And with $VIX going up, $SPX decides to roll over. does it just go down to 2040? No reason to expect more doom than that, except we just touched RSI=70 and have now gone MACD down, and Wall Street Whitey would certainly love to take those two facts as a signal to piddle his frilly little pink panties again.