Saturday, March 7, 2015
OK, so the important thing is gold ex-USD.
So look at this:
With all the horror of yesterday, it only barely broke below the SMA(50). And that's mostly because the Americans were puking gold -3SD later in the day, because all they see is the US dollar price.
And here's the weekly:
You can probably ignore the short-term EMA on this chart because it doesn't mean too much.
But if gold ex-USD can stay above 5.10 for the next couple months, this would set up a cup and handle pattern that targets... um... some significantly higher figure ex-USD.
Which will make the rest of the world pay attention even if Wall Street Whitey doesn't.
Gold in CAD ended the week at $1495. Quit being an American for just a second and think about that.
Friday, March 6, 2015
A GUY MAKES TINY EDIBLE PANCAKES USING TINY KITCHEN UTENSILS: you won't believe what you need to know next!
This man is taking Japan by storm.
Or whatever I guess.
at 8:00 AM
New Deal Demoncrat - drilling down past the headline numbers. He points out:
Average Weekly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: unchanged at $20.80, up 1.6%YoY. (Note: you may be reading elsewhere that wages went up. They are citing average wages for all private jobs. I use wages for nonsupervisory personnel, to come closer to the situation for ordinary workers.)
And a 1.6% yoy from last February, whose weather sucked more than this year's remember, with zero gains from January, means that wage inflation still isn't an issue, which means no there's not going to be a Fed rate hike in June.
The more leading numbers in the report tell us about where the economy is likely to be a few months from now. These were mixed with a downside bias, basically taking back their gains in January.
So as noted Q1 GDP still is expected to suck when it comes out.
But you white-ass honky hedge fund clowns go ahead and keep your algos programmed to trade on the headline number. It's not going to hurt you, you still get your 2% & 20%.
This is the important bit of news for this morning:
US dollar makes a +3SD upmove on a good jobs number. I doubt it stays there.
And as for gold:
The damage came from the US dollar move. As for the ex-US price of gold, it's still not looking bad.
Algos puke, it's what they do.
Oh also US regional banks have exploded higher, but they're still banging on the resistance line.
OK, power supply is fixed, but it was a bit of a bitch: damn thing gets wedged over the CPU fan, and who the hell decided you needed an extra 4-pin connector on the motherboard?
Anyway, back to giving you all the news you're never interested in reading anyway:
New Deal Demoncrat - durable goods is a useful long leading indicator. And it looks fine right now.
Calculated Risk - hints of real wage increases. What would be a lot nicer is if we saw a secular shift in the American power structure, back towards labour and away from the capitalist class. Because that was the driver of American growth from the 50s onward.
Brett Steenbarger - measuring market sentiment with the index put-call ratio. Which is a completely different thing from the equity put-call ratio.
This post was scheduled weeks ahead of time, but I'm assuming that junior miners puked like crazy by now and are back to their old sucking.
So here's the Yeah Yeah Yeahs reminding you just how low a junior mining stock can go:
Thursday, March 5, 2015
Daniela Daniela Daniela! And a bunch of other people too but it's hard to get as worked up about them
Here's Daniela Cambone interviewing Martin Murenbeeld:
He talks about his gold price models and how he post-hoc doctors them, and how he doesn't see anything wrong with that, especially the idea that the Crimea situation added $20 to the gold price which is funny cos who the fuck buys gold because of Crimea and which of them are going to buy more gold because of Donetsk?
But he does say that he and the people he hangs out with thinks now is a good time to get back into miners, which is significant cos that's the mainstream there.
Here's Daniela Cambone interviewing Jeffrey Christian:
He injects some reality in the blather about "manipulation". And he thinks the gold price will quiet down for the next few months. Rather sensible fellow.
And here's Daniela Cambone interviewing The Cookie Monster:
And for some silly reason he thinks that declining primary gold production won't do anything to the price of gold.
BNN - An hour with the Cookie Monster! The phones just blow up when Cookie is there, so they say!
Just from memory, he calls Dalradian a top pick, and thinks there's no reason to sell B2Gold right now.
He also thinks we've hit peak gold production, and we're well past peak discovery, and he's always talked about how we're now mining far more gold than we're discovering. So next time you meet him, ask him what he thinks the gold price will be 2-5 years from now because of this situation.
Well, is it a bottoming pattern?
Here's a hint:
Gold's been starting to inch up again ex-us.
I dunno, that looks good to me....
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
PDAC - Tuesday afternoon PDAC investor forum schedule. There's The Clive, ready to take your questions today at 2:40 PM.
I will give a shiny one-ounce silver coin to the person who goes to this session and manages to ask Clive a question prefaced with any of the following:
1. "Please don't hit me, but...";
2. "Before you stumble out of here in a drunken stupor and attack someone again, I'd like to ask...";
3. "I have a two-part question. Firstly, how does it feel when Dan 'The Hammer' Earle smacks you down like the pussy bitch you are, and secondly...".
Recorded proof required, and yes dammit I'll happily post it here.
GDX's action, turning back from the Boll mean but then staying supported at the SMA(50), is positive. Damn I look at that action of the past few days and it's so tempting.
I know it's PDAC and we're supposed to dump and not come back til June. Then again, whoever's left in the gold miner market also knows this, and is probably dumping, and yet this is all the damage it can do to the chart?
GLD has popped above the EMA(6) which governed the Jan-Feb downtrend, which if you'll remember is a 50% retrace of the January gold ex-USD pop. It's also riding the Nov-Feb uptrend support line, and if you see a higher low that's doing a good job of not breaking down then it might just be a good price point to buy, right?
Hard to tell what to do. But the charts are showing me opportunities and I like that.
Three charts, check the last candle on each:
Sure looks like high-yield wants to roll over.
Yet shorting the near month volatility doesn't look that bad... though maybe that's just cos the XIV trade just spent six months getting slaughtered, so maybe the XIV speculators have all left for the next big thing.
Though at the same time, TLT and UUP still aren't showing strength.
This would be a very annoying market if I didn't already have a ton of profit booked. As it stands, I'd really love another 5% "crash" so I can go back to a heavy leveraged-long position and make more money.
People really want to know who he is! Here's a search from Dow Jones:
|click to unsmallicize|
So why would someone from Dow Jones & Company want to put themselves in danger just to find out who Otto Rock is?
Especially when they should be asking who I am. That's the question on everyone's mind nowadays: I'm that fuckin' up-and-comer whose blog shakes the balls of Bay Street and puts the panty-piddling Wall Street bloggers to shame. White-ass honky Nazi cracker tries to block me in all the company internet filters cos he can't handle my truth gettin' out but my secret following of anti-capitalist warriors just switches to myownmarketnarrative.blogspot.mx or .ua or .ch, or they follow me on their own smartphone, just to sit on my every fucking word yo.
Cos I be the homey that called the January gold pop, and I be the homey that called Blackberry, and still all the bitches be hatin' but here I am still slappin' my thing down.
And the fat pasty White-ass honky crackers like Josh Brown and Barry Ritholtz? I don't follow them bitches, yo. They be fuckin' livejournal, but me I'm that next shit that your girlfriend is beggin' for. Whole fuckin' internet be hangin' off my dick by springtime and WSJ just wishes their Nazi racist asses could participate but I don't go on the down-low with fucking Reaganite race-war bitches.
So sure, keep googling "Who is Otto Rock". Nice to see the homeboy getting some attention. But don't you bitches forget he's a candle, but I'm the infinite blackness behind it.
IT TAKES A NATION OF MILLIONS TO HOLD ME BACK
IKN - Wall Street Journal asks his opinion on something. Which tells you exactly how many gold market experts the WSJ has in their rolodex.
Monday, March 2, 2015
Here's some news:
New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. He says Q1 GDP will be a terrible reading. Thankfully that'll be a backward-looking indicator when it's released. Though hopefully we can get another 5% puke out of it.
Gavyn Davies - reasons to piddle your frilly little pink panties. He rehashes all the crap you can hear on CNBC and read at BI, and even includes the statement "as Warren Buffett says" which is always a clear giveaway that the article will be a pile of steaming bullshit.
Liz Ann Sonders - in fact I went out and bought me some extra frilly little pink panties so I don't run out during my ongoing piddling. She also makes the error of extrapolating from where we are this minute, instead of looking at where we might be heading.
All this, and then today Nasdaq hit 5000. When the VSPs are freaking out over their own obvious mistakes, it's a great time to be long.
What the heck is Canaccord doing buying up every single share of Minera IRL?
After the Feb spike-n-puke I bought scads of shares at 6 cents, probably because I secretly want to destroy all the gains I made in the market in January.
But lo and behold, Canaccord has been buying every single share: first by sitting on the bid, and today by even hitting the ask once in a while.
I guess instead of asking "why the hell is Canaccord trying to corner the market in IRL", I should instead ask "why the hell is Dundee puking all these shares and where the hell are they coming from anyway", since it's Dundee who's been selling to them all this time.
Is this just a market maker switchover?
Oh well... it's a 25% win for me if I can dump at 7.5 cents, or then again maybe I want to hold because god forbid some news might actually come out of this dog someday.
Dammit all it just keeps going up doesn't it:
And dumbass me, I bought a whole pile of this thinking it was Burberry.
Ha ha, no, just kidding.
It's kinda freaky that in my first 2 months of this year I've turned around about an 8% profit on my total capital on closed trades, with another 3% still on the table. Maybe I should be unemployed more often! I almost don't want to go to university, since that might get in the way of trading.
Then again, it might make me trade less, which I still have to learn to do if I want to make more money on my trades. Things have been easy, but that 8% could have been 20% if I'd just held trades longer.
See, there's an appropriate time to protect your gains, but there's also an appropriate time to be ultra-aggressive. The problem is that a few months of a tough market (or a few years in the case of miners) can make you inappropriately conservative, and I just have to get that into my head.
Anyway, today I have to address a lingering problem with my power supply, and am wondering what do:
1. Buy a new ATX supply. No big deal, $40-$50, but installing it is a bit of a bitch. I really hate having to connect the motherboard, because the connector is so far in there and I don't want to have to remove the video card and HDs just to reach it.
2. Buy the new ATX supply and also a new 64-bit OS. I'm still running a 32-bit Vista, which means my Civ 4 with ROM mod and gigantic map crashes after the gamefile gets a certain size because it needs >3GB. Problem is, I am very frightened of the work involved in upgrading my OS: I always think it'll fuck everything up, or at a minimum that I'll have to reinstall utterly evarrrything.
3. Buy a new computer. Thing is this one seems to only be 6 years old, and that's a little too early.