Saturday, January 24, 2015

Some weekend news

Here's some weekend reading:

Bespoke - EPS and sales this quarter. Quote:
As you can see in the chart, compared to prior quarters over the past few years, the current earnings beat rate is somewhat mediocre, but the revenue beat rate is relatively strong. Investors like to see strong top line numbers because they're less easy for companies to fudge, so it's a positive sign that revenues have held up well so far this season.
So y u selling, Whitey?

Brett Steenbarger - tracking sentiment via buy and sell programs. Seems the market should go up from here:
At market lows, sell programs diminish while buy programs continue to fire. That creates a situation in which buying pressure spikes early in a market cycle. (Note that this is what has happened recently in the wake of the ECB action). As a market rise matures, sell programs begin to exceed buy programs and we see the balance between the two top out ahead of price. The recent significant expansion of program buying suggests that we should see upside momentum from recent central bank actions.
The magic part is, does the market really have any way to arb away this indicator? Interesting thought!

der Spargel - German companies sold chemical weapons equipment to Assad for decades. And Merkel doesn't care, because the weapons manufacturers are her biggest supporters. And yet fascists like Timothy Ash criticize the Mediterranean states for corruption and sociamalism? I guess that shows he doesn't care about good and evil, just about unfettered capitalism. So why does he think his words have any importance?

FT Alphaville - European sovereign debt hypocrisy. Let's explain exactly how selfish and greedy the Germans really are:
SPIEGEL ONLINE: The Germany of today is considered the embodiment of stability. How many times has Germany become insolvent in the past?

Ritschl: That depends on how you do the math. During the past century alone, though, at least three times. After the first default during the 1930s, the US gave Germany a “haircut” in 1953, reducing its debt problem to practically nothing. Germany has been in a very good position ever since, even as other Europeans were forced to endure the burdens of World War II and the consequences of the German occupation. Germany even had a period of non-payment in 1990.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Really? A default?

Ritschl: Yes, then-Chancellor Helmut Kohl refused at the time to implement changes to the London Agreement on German External Debts of 1953. Under the terms of the agreement, in the event of a reunification, the issue of German reparations payments from World War II would be newly regulated. The only demand made was that a small remaining sum be paid, but we’re talking about minimal sums here. With the exception of compensation paid out to forced laborers, Germany did not pay any reparations after 1990 — and neither did it pay off the loans and occupation costs it pressed out of the countries it had occupied during World War II. Not to the Greeks, either.
Though you shouldn't expect the Germans to actually admit any of this. They seem to have learned how to forget the more inconvenient parts of their history. Or at least they can explain it all away by asserting that it's really somebody else's fault.

BBC - German court rules that men can pee while standing. Piddling in the standing position is no longer verboten. Yeah, I only included this link because I particularly hate the Germans today. - Cookie Monster says "don't buy crap". Ha ha! Too late!

Friday, January 23, 2015

Market commentary

Well, the US markets are skyrocketing in foreign currencies, but still rangebound in USD. Time to be unhedged USD I guess, eh?

I'm a little spooked by today's weakness in the regional banks and strength of TLT. So while $VIX is downish, that's maybe because the big money is just certain of where it wants to be next, which means new positions are being taken, most of which will ultimately be wrong.

I could imagine gold being weak for a few days, what with OpEx next week and new currency crosses now interesting to the hedge funds: maybe a new round of people will go short gold over the next couple days?

So I guess I'll just step away from the computer and let that roast cook for a while.

Timothy Ash, fascist liar and right-wing plutocratic propagandist from Standard Bank

FT beyond brics - Europe: more right-wing lies from Standard Bank. A rehash of the right-wing neocon lies that have driven Europe into depression:

Europe is in the worst state it has been in at any point in the entire post WWII era.

Really? Worse than the inflation of the 1970s? The era of the fascist juntas in Spain and Greece? The RAF and Red Brigade insurgencies? The chaos of the collapse of Bretton Woods? The long task of rebuilding Europe after WWII? Worse than all those?

And it's the fault of the evil central bankers stealing German money to give to lazy, swarthy Mediterraneans, right?

Europeans (Brits included) don’t work hard enough and pay themselves too much, at the same time expecting too much from the state while generally being reluctant to pay up in taxes.

So you want Europe to go the way of the Americans? With rampant homelessness, legions of poor locked up in prisons or gunned down by police, the working poor unable to afford shelter or medical care?

Um, do the sovereign citizens of Europe get to vote on this subject? Or do you want to impose it from above?

And what do you think they have been voting for over the past 50 years? And given the violence of past revolutions and communist insurgencies in Europe, don't you think a little bit of social welfare is a small price to pay to keep your plutocrat buddies alive and in power?

How did we get here? With the global financial crisis we initially saw deep recession driven arguably by global factors, accompanied by the collapse of Icelandic, British, Irish, Spanish, Portuguese, Greek, even German, Austrian, Latvian and then Cypriot, Slovenian and eventually Bulgarian banks.

You got there, you fascist pig, because Europe held its rates down artificially low to help Germany's economy struggle through reunification. But that cheap German money flooded into peripheral real estate markets, causing a massive real estate bubble.

The proper tack should have been to keep Europe's rates realistic and let the fucking Germans starve for 20 years. Because that's exactly what they now want to visit upon the rest of Europe.

Recovery has been weak, reflective of weak banks, weak demand for credit because of weak growth prospects, high unemployment, and limited scope for counter-cyclical fiscal policies due to concerns over debt sustainability.

Really? Is the market really all that concerned about debt sustainability? Right now Italy's 10-year yield is 1.53%, and Spain's is 1.51%. Is that reflective of concern? Or are you just repeating the tired lies of the plutocratic rentier class, who are clamouring for a higher interest rate to base rents on while also demanding that they don't pay taxes to fund that rent?

Adding to the mix is the fact that Europe has perhaps the weakest group of political leaders for generations, the only exception lying in the experience and political weight of Angela Merkel in Germany – now perhaps the one great hope for the continent.

Wow, you sure love the Germans, don't you? And what has Merkel's response to the crisis been? More austerity. She's only the "one great hope" for crushing the periphery and subjugating it under the jackboot of German supremacy.

Merkel's so great that she almost made Draghi quit his job last month. Here's the one guy who has the slightest clue about economics, and she wants to drive him out of his job and replace him with - who? Weidmann? Whose only qualification is being "wrong, but German"?

A strong leader is a bad thing when they use their strength to drive a continent into the dirt. Check your history books. What you want is sensible leaders, and Merkel's not one of them.

Overshadowing it all is the not insignificant prospect of a large-scale war in Ukraine, which threatens to become the largest European conflict since the Balkan wars.

And Merkel's response to the Ukrainian conflict has been to cozy up to the fascist Russian kleptocratic state, in order to protect her plutocratic buddies who ten years ago happily went into business with the Russian mafia.

But of course she can do that, because if there ever is a full scale war, there's no way we'll ever see German soldiers putting their lives on the line to protect Ukraine. Once again it'll probably be Canadians getting gunned down to protect the innocent, while the fat German bastards sit back and make their fortunes selling arms to the other side.

We can argue all we like about whether Europe went too far in terms of deepening and enlargement.

You guys loved EZ enlargement when it meant cheap German money flooding into Bucharest and buying up all the real estate, leaving the Romanians essentially homeless while German rentiers made a fortune flipping properties back and forth.

Now, all of a sudden, you have a problem?

Perhaps the move to a single currency was a naïve and ultimately dangerous political project.

Canada has a single currency, and we do well. But we automatically redistribute funds from rich provinces to poor provinces, in order to balance money flows and ensure the country's economy can continue to function.

But Canada can do that because we don't hew to a racist ideology which asserts that some Canadians are morally and ethically inferior to others just because of where they come from. Even Harper isn't that evil.

Friday videos: Thrushes again

This is more New York noisecore than it is shoegaze, but whatever:

Thursday, January 22, 2015

So... what's with this gold fixation anyway?

So I was looking up the Saudi Royal family, and came across a short video of Prince Alwaleed bin Talal's luxury A380:

The king of Saudi Arabia just died

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia just passed away. His son Salman will succeed him.

Price of gold didn't take any notice btw.

Market update

Well, whatever the hell happened today, the market has suddenly decided that it's cool again to buy regional banks, small-caps, and railways. It's as if suddenly the apocalypse got rescheduled.

$VIX is dropping hard, almost as if someone's decided that they don't need to own a shit-ton of downside puts anymore.

And nobody seems to care about oil still going down.

Funny nuff, gold and silver are still up, but I think the market got the memo about what a bad idea it is to own self-diluting miners because GDX is going nowhere. Even B2Clive is collapsing - they must be talking about buying out another company with paper again.

Anyway, tonight's fried chicken night!

Wow, way to screw over your shareholders, Romarco

I had this stock on my radar because Ron Stewart from Dundee Clarus wherever reccied it on The Gold Report.

Check this out:

CMJ - Romarco announces $300M bought deal financing. Quote:

Romarco Minerals Inc. ("Issuer" or "Company") (TSX:R) has announced today that it has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters led by BMO Capital Markets and Cormark Securities Inc., under which the underwriters have agreed to buy on a bought deal basis 517,300,000 common shares (the "Common Shares"), at a price of $0.58 per Common Share for gross proceeds of $300,034,000 (the "Offering"). The Company has granted the Underwriters an option, exercisable at the offering price for a period of 30 days following the closing of the Offering, to purchase up to an additional 15% of the Offering to cover over-allotments, if any.

Jesus guys, you only had 725M shares outstanding to begin with. Way to dilute the fuck out of your shareholders.

Well, at least we can be certain that the people who recently joined the goldbug world are learning their lessons early.

UPDATE: What's the lesson? The lesson is, if you own a junior that's not flush with cash, you should puke it immediately because they're going to pump you in the ass any second now. Because Canaccord and Cormark and BMO are the only ones allowed to make money in this game, not you.

Does the worrying VIX trendline break today?

Everything is looking up today, because the EZ has decided on an only somewhat disappointing QE.

Won't work btw because Germany still doesn't want to participate in an internal revaluation to get intra-EZ money flows balanced, but whatever.

So what's going to happen with $VIX today?

That red line is what's been worrying me for the past 2 months.

Let's hope it gets broken to the downside today.

Especially since I'm short $VIX again.

Gold's hit $1300 again, bitches

Oh and PS gold just hit $1300 again.

So if this holds, all you got was a 1-day retest of $1290. Despite what your best technical analyst pulled out of his ass yesterday.

Problem with amateur TA on a move like this is that you don't recognize how strong a move this is unless you pay attention to the 3 most important technical indicators: price, volume, and time.

Poll's progress

I direct your attention again to the poll on the right of the webpage.

As of now, exactly half of respondents think that gold will end the year over $1400. As well, the vast majority seem certain that gold will end the year over $1300.

Why is this? Are people just getting lulled into overconfidence by January's action in gold? Or do you people think the deflationary spiral will worsen, or negative real yields are a permanent thing, or the US dollar will reverse and go back down?

Or is it just that my blog is followed by insane goldbugs, despite my best efforts to the contrary?

Or have I really been that persuasive in my commentary?

Frankly, even though I think gold will continue to move strongly in February, I'm not sure at all about what happens the rest of the year: in fact, I think the deflation hysteria will evaporate soon, the way it always has these past few years. TLT is near the upper limit of its long-term trend channel, so it's probably about to reverse and go down.

Anyway, poll closes in a few days so get your votes in if you haven't already. Vote early! Vote often!

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

IKN's coverage of B2Gold over the last 24 hours


IKN - Oh look, big volume spike in B2gold. Almost as if there was good news in the pipeline.

Then this morning,

IKN - B2gold's knockout 4Q production numbers. Almost as if that pop in the share price yesterday was somehow justified. By, y'know, a pending piece of good news.

This makes me say two things:

1. Where can I sign up for the B2gold insider information newsletter?*

2. Thanks to IKN for flagging the production numbers, on his blog even, so I could buy more B2 this morning at a pre-leak price.

* - Y'know, guys, you're not supposed to save your pending quarterlies news release data on your server in unencrypted form.

The PM smackdown missed a spot

Yeah, so gold got smacked down all the way to $1190 this morning!

Sorry... did I say $1190? I meant $1290.

So here's why you watch the silver chart, okay?

I guess everyone's been slam-selling gold this morning cos of the ECB decision that's been leaked out.

Problem is they aren't slam-selling silver too.

So I guess the underlying gold situation is still fine, we're just seeing a $10 drop from this morning because a few people trading gold on news have cut bait.

Gold's not broken til silver is.

From this morning's BNN newsletter

Gold $1304 bitches!

I finally got subbed to BNN's morning newsletter, and what do I read?:

Also, according to Ed Yardeni, just fyi, he notes that “the commodity super-cycle is dead. We’re still doing the autopsy to determine the cause of the death.” He notes that he isn’t convinced that a new secular bull market in gold is making a comeback. Gold tends to track the tend of industrial commodity prices which are weaker so far this year.

Three points:

1. Wait, gold tracks industrial commodity prices now? I thought gold tends to track the 10s/2s? Or the TIPS yield? Or geopolitical risk? How's about you give us a little regression analysis to back up your assertion with a correlation factor, Ed? I mean, if it's got nothing to do with that little thing called supply and demand.

2. Who's Ed Yardeni anyway? Oh - a guy with a blog. Wow. Hey, BNN, how about you start quoting my little ignorant meaningless blog too? Or am I just not at the same level as a guy who pulls baseless assertions out of his ignorant honky ass?

3. If Yardeni is still in there with Ritholtz and Josh Brown, doubting the advance in gold, then gold still has a long way to go before it starts to see any resistance.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Frank Holmes gets suckered by Gundlach's worthless chart

And here's Vanessa Collette giving Frank Holmes some rope and watching him hang himself:

Right at the start he pulls up Jeffrey Gundlach's dooooom chart and asserts that the US market has never gone up seven years in a row.

So in other words, Frank Holmes is just another hayseed sucker who got taken by Gundlach's worthless chart. Let's quote that blog just to make sure you all get it this time:

However, a quick check of the history books will remind everyone that the market was up 8 straight years from 1982-1989 and then was also up 9 straight years from 1991-1999. Below are the 2 separate streaks. You will also notice that there was only 1 down year of -3.06% in 1990 that actually stopped it from being 18 straight years.

You can just ignore the fucking chart, Holmes. Because Gundlach has proven he's so fucking stupid that he doesn't even know how to select a representative data set. Quit reading idiots. Quit getting your news from Business Insider. Quit parroting crap from Reuters. Do some thinking for yourself for once.

In the rest of the interview apparently he talks about gold having gone parabolic in other currencies, but you don't have to listen because he's just proven that he blindly parrots whatever he reads on the internet.

Vanessa Collette interviews The Cookie Monster

Here's Cookie:

He makes an interesting point - the deeper the deposit is, the more likely it's a sulphide. Always good to remember weathering.

And Vanessa tries to introduce all the budding new goldbugs to the concept of selling your fucking shitty miner when it's going down.

BNN with the Globe and Mail's Brian Milner on oil's effect on fascist dictators (incl. Harper)

BNN - Brian Milner on whether oil's plunge will destroy the world's petrofascists. He notes that it's going to be a very tough time for all those dictators in the world who based their power on high oil prices, such as Stephen Harper.

Like I said (before Milner, ahem), this next election will hopefully mark the end of Prime Minister Pedosmile Sweatervest's reign. And I doubt The Anointed One will have a problem forming a coalition with the NDP.

Speaking of which, this Cullen kid from the NDP looks like a brawler. If he's even allowed to get his point across in Canada's great bastion of reactionary fascism the National Post, then he's got substance.

OTTO ROCK SELLS OUT, GOES FULL CASEY: here's what you need to know

Mineweb - why IKN loves him some gold. And Casey. He gets a reprint at Mineweb, and thus becomes the new hero of goldbugs worldwide. Quote:
On this subject I’m in complete agreement with the most hardcore goldbug you’d care to mention. I’m two-thumbs-up with all the libertarian-leaning monetary thinkers and self-styled gurus. Jim Sinclair? Yup. That King guy whose first name eludes me that runs King World News? Count me in. Doug Casey? Yep, he’s always been right on this. On other things we disagree, but on this one Casey’s been constantly and consistently correct for decades.
Oh my. Just wait til the Caseydroids show up at your blog and see your true Bolivaran socialist anti-imperialist colours! Quick, write a post about the economic success of the Evo Morales administration, before it's too late!

Anyway, I'd like to remind the people in the press that I'm the guy who called the massive pop in gold. Me.

Krugman reminds us again about the odious racism of the Germans

The Krugginator - about that suffering French economy.... Because everyone's so completely bought in to Aryan racist economic theory, he's got to point it out to us again:

This is the week we’re supposed to hear the ECB’s plan for monetary expansion; the German media are already howling, with Bild warning that Draghi’s expected actions will reduce the pressure for reform in “crisis-hit countries such as Spain, Greece, Italy, or France.” Above are European long-term interest rates as of close of business yesterday.

So, first of all, look at “crisis-hit” France; investors are so worried about France that they won’t hold its bonds unless offered, um, 0.64 percent, the lowest rate in history. But never mind — everyone knows that the French must be in crisis, because they still believe in social insurance, and besides, they’re French.

Notice also that crisis-hit Spain is now paying a lower interest rate than Britain. It’s surely a higher interest rate in real terms, because Spain faces the prospect of years of deflation. But this should — but won’t — put an end to all the talk about how low British rates are the reward for austerity, and so on.

The only crisis in the Eurozone is that Germany still refuses to do what it takes to balance money flows within the ECU, thus forcing internal devaluation in the periphery.

This is the neighbour you people picked, Europe.

Dalradian: to da moon, Alice?


Still going up, still on volume. And if Goldcorp will pay $440M for Probe Mines, what will someone pay for Curraghinalt?

The problem, as our lad in Peru reminded me yesterday, is the 10 million or so 90 cent warrants coming due on February 19th. That's supposed to mean a share price overhang, right?

Then again, warrants in the money only really means that DNA gets a $9M cash injection. And at this moment the market might feel that DNA will provide them with value for money on that $9M. Warrants becoming cash only looks bad when the market thinks that money will be wasted - drilling when all hope in the gold price has been lost, keeping the lights on through a 15-year secular bear market in commodities, and so on.

Yes, warrant holders could dump their stocks and hold the warrants, but I think they already dumped the stocks a few months ago, don't you?

So if you were a junior gold investor with both shares and warrants, and you saw gold skyrocketing higher ($1291.90 at this moment) and development plays getting bought out because (as Cookie notes) the majors are running out of reserves, would you dump your DNA shares right now, or keep them?

So maybe overhang is only a problem when gold miners suck™. But since gold miners are totally awesome now™, the overhang mysteriously disappears?

So maybe the $1.08 target gets hit.

Oh, uh... but that Kaminak post reminded me to check the weekly....

Uh... and a print of $1.08 then activates the big 18-month W pattern, which targets about $2.

I mean, if you believe in that TA bullshit.

Kaminak Gold: major breakout approacheth

Eric Coffin apparently likes Kaminak Gold, which is funny cos I respect him and I had thought KAM was worthless.

Anyway, here's KAM's chart:

$1.00 or so is a multi-year resistance level. So if you think gold is going up from here, and Eric Coffin knows what he's talking about, then KAM will positively assplode right about now.

They way, y'know, gold just did.

Target? Something insanely stupid. $1.60 off just the latest cup, or $2.20 off the November 2013 low. I can forgive you for laughing your ass off at that.

Disclosure: bot 3000 after the original post but before adding the target price. Will add more if it goes up, if for no other reason than to have a reason to be mad at Coffin when the inevitable collapse comes. Cos the guy's just too damn likeable right now.

Some Tuesday news

Gold tickled $1290 this morning. Where is that Jeffrey Currie when you need him? We need to get him to assplain why he didn't foresee worldwide deflation, the Euro QE, and the Swiss depeg.

Cos right now his prediction is looking like it should have been prefaced with "if all things continue on the way they are right now, here's what comes out of my ass"; and that's not the quality of analysis you'd demand from a paid employee of Goldman Sachs, is it?

Anyway, here's the news:

Tim Duy - the Fed will probably take a dovish turn. I'd agree. The Fed aren't blind: they saw Trichet's single rate rise in 2011 send the Eurozone back into depression, and their job description involves not fucking up the US like Trichet fucked up the EZ.

Wall Street Rant - Doubleline data fail, the stock market has gone up for 7 years in a row and more. Jeffrey Gundlach is such a moron that he can't even look at his data to see if he's wrong, and the Financial Times bloggers are such morons that they don't bother to fact-check the assertions of some hedge fund talking head. It takes a blogger to smack these bitches down. A blogger. And this one hardly ever even posts.

That's how undependable the lamestream media is.

FT Alphaville - a current account surplus? In India? It's more likely than you think. There goes another source of downward pressure on the gold price.

The Gold Report - interview with Eric Coffin. He's right about this:
The real danger for the euro would occur should Greece prosper following a massive devaluation of its currency. Then countries like Italy, with much bigger debt loads, would want out as well, and the euro might be finished.
And that's what might well happen. But he's wrong about this:
Putin clearly likes bullion. The Russian central bank has bought a lot of it in the last two to three years. There's a certain logic to a gold-backed ruble because the ruble is now effectively a petrodollar, and the oil price collapse has been disastrous for Russia.
Russia's only been buying their own mines' gold, and only because the sanctions mean the gold can't reach the world market. Russia can't have a gold-backed ruble, because then every Russian will trade in their worthless rubles for gold bullion and the central bank will go bust. - Goldcorp pays $440M for Probe Mines. So does the recent pop in the gold price signify an end to the doldrums enough that the queue can be cleared, and all the low-cost developers (AKG, PG, DNA) will now quickly get bought out? That would be nice. - most money pumped into gold ETFs since 2012. Net inflows of 22 tons, or 25% of demand. This is how a pop in the gold price can happen. Pray, do continue, Whitey!

IKN - why I own gold. Long essay from this week's IKN, and I agree 100% that physical gold is an asset without counterparty risk (more or less). It's only one of many reasons that people own gold (including Asians), but it's a reason that people tend to forget (except Asians). Until, say, the Yellowstone supervolcano blows up.

And, I might add, in that sense it's okay for gold to have a carrying cost - that makes it just like insurance, which it is.

Reuters - Pope says ban on birth control doesn't mean to breed like rabbits dammit! Considering he's the Pope, why does he still hold to an outdated, incorrect interpretation of the story of Onan that belies an abject ignorance of basic OT/Jewish theology? Because he must be basing the ban on birth control on the story of Onan, because God's commandment in Genesis 9:7 clearly demands that people breed like rabbits.

Sorry Pope, you had a good run there with all the caring about the poor stuff, but now you've just proven you're as much of an ignorant dogmatic asshat as every other pope. For fuck's sake, this bullshit rule should go the way of opposition to heliocentrism, or fish on Fridays.

New poll over at the right (corrected)

New poll over at the right.

What will the price of gold be at the end of 2015?

You have a week to vote.

Monday, January 19, 2015

The ticker that keeps on giving

IKN - CUM shot its recovery percentages.

Though I would personally have used:

IKN - CUM all over the place with their recoveries


IKN - CUM hits the ceiling for production

or even 

IKN - Scotia keeps pumping steaming wads of CUM onto their clients.

PS I now await my huge surge in traffic.

THE BIG SECRET: gold was going up before the Franc depeg

I'm sick and tired of hearing about gold going up because of the Swiss depeg.

Here's a chart:

The depeg was little more than a blip in the grand scheme of things. What's making gold go up is that it's spent so long being down that nobody can force it down any more.

Some Monday reading

I'm not going to buy any more miners today, because frankly they'll just get sold back down tomorrow by idiot Americans who don't even realize that gold has gone up 10% this year.

So here's some stuff for you:

BBC - richest 1% will soon own more than the rest of the world combined. It's nice that the media's getting all worked up about inequality, but it's not as if the mewling sycophantic bastards will ever do anything about it. You're still reporting on David Cameron as if he's not a retarded buffoon who read all he knows about economics from the back of a cereal box.

Until you start reporting the truth, you filth in the lamestream media are nothing but lapdogs of the worldwide kleptocratic class.

FT beyond brics - India faces a massive education challenge. Erp! Jim O'Neill looks like a right git in his India call when you read this:
By 2030, the economies of India and China together may contribute 65 per cent of global GDP and be home to the majority of the world’s working age population. India alone will possess the world’s biggest pool of potential employees.

But the giddy predictions of future growth seem more fragile when it is considered that this potential labour force is dependent on education systems that often fail to teach basic skills.

India has the largest number of illiterate adults of any country globally. Teacher absenteeism is the third highest in the world, and many teachers lack basic training. Some 12.8m young Indians enter the work force each year and, without adequate skills, will often struggle to find employment.
I'd agree that 1.3 billion ignorant, illiterate peasants is not a good base upon which to build growth, because there's only so much productivity you can get out of them.

Bloomberg - an utterly useless article on the impact of the advance in A-shares. Every single "prediction" includes a "would", "could" or "may": therefore, the entire article is nothing but baseless speculation from someone who has his head stuck up his own ass.

Seriously, people: a sentence like "the money sucked into the share market may exacerbate competition for funding" is wasting my fucking time because an economist who spends a few hours looking at the data could tell you exactly what the impact will or won't be.

Bloomberg, go fuck yourself and quit wasting my fucking time with baseless speculation. If Dorris Chen, Jim Antos, Lu Ting, Rainy Yuan, Judy Zhang and Liu Changjiang presented data and models, please tell us about them: if instead they just ignorantly made shit up, tell us that they just ignorantly made shit up. I'm tired of the press reporting baseless speculation as news. - Sharps Pixley calls for $1321 average gold this year. Pft. Pussies. I'll call $1400. People are still blaming the rise in gold on the Swiss central bank decision, when in reality it's been going up since the first day of the year. As long as they all remain blind to the truth, gold will keep going up.

Bloomberg - hey, didja hear China still needs metals? Then again, Rio Tinto has already flagged bauxite and copper as high-demand metals for China next decade, so I think we can assume they'll destroy those markets the way they destroyed the iron ore market:
“You can’t build a refrigerator without putting in our commodities, you can’t build a washing machine, you can’t build a car,” Sam Walsh, Rio Tinto’s chief executive officer, told investors at a Dec. 4 seminar in London.
And you can't make money on a metal once Rio Tinto decides to wade in and build a bunch of low-cost supermines to corner the market.

i09 - 80% of Americans support mandatory labelling of foods containing DNA. Personally, I stick to a diet of good old fashioned glucose, salt, and ethyl alcohol. No pesky DNA there!

Sunday, January 18, 2015

Some Sunday evening news

Here's a bit more reading for ya:

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Rail in particular still looks fantastic, despite the supposed imminent collapse of oil transport. Summary:
One year ago we had decided weakness in some long leading indicators, especially housing and corporate profits. This looks like it has finally spread into some of the coincident indicators. I don't see any actual negative results, just a backing off from Q2 and Q3 strong growth. Aside from that, the recent story of global weakness, but an advancing positive US economy remains the case. With the return of federal, state, and local government spending, and a big tailwind from low gas prices, I expect that to remain the case.
I would expect that there'd be some bad numbers regionally in the next while if the oil patch has to wind down, by the way.

Liz-Ann Sonders - talking down the guy with the gun to his head. Some sense for you:
Traditionally, volatility has increased in the period leading up to an initial Fed rate hike, so investors may need to keep their seatbelts buckled for a while.
The implications of oil’s crash are starting to be felt; with multiple corporate layoffs and falling rig counts recently announced by several key energy companies. But the supply reduction may not occur quite as quickly as some believe. The costs of production being quoted for various sites in the United States generally include fixed and variable costs. But fixed costs are also known as sunk costs, meaning they’re not recoverable, so the decision to stop pumping oil is likely being made based on variable costs, which are likely lower than published costs.
We remain optimistic that the bull market for US stocks will remain intact in 2015, but the early increase in volatility seems likely to persist. Investors should be cautious not to be whipsawed by the sharp moves in the market and focus on the longer term perspective.
So quit piddling yourself cos Liz is getting sick of changing your diapers.

Calculated Risk - how do you predict the next recession? For those of you who are concerned with the wharrgarbl emanating from the Russian propagandists and Republican retards. Quote:
I think the most likely cause of the next recession will be Fed tightening to combat inflation sometime in the future - and residential investment (housing starts, new home sales) will probably turn down well in advance of the recession. In other words, I expect the next recession to be a more normal economic downturn - and I don't expect a recession for a few years.
Don't ignore the sensible truth.

Brett Steenbarger - three market measures and what they're telling us. He still thinks this is a rangebound move and the US market will go back up. It's a sensible opinion, but nobody ever said the market had to act sensibly.

Calculated Risk - the reason homebuilders got whacked. Seems everybody was assuming they'd have fat margins forever, but the reality is that eventually prices have to come down to balance demand to the massive supply. Econ 101, bitches.

FT Alphaville - Switzerland's problem isn't a strong currency but anemic consumption. And the Franc depeg fixes this.

Mickeyman agrees that gold is going to the moon

World Complex - gold x USDX. Actually he doesn't agree with me, he thinks gold has to slow down.

I think, since gold spent a year at an idiotic below-production-cost price getting beaten up by idiot White people who think its price has anything whatsoever to do with TIPS or the yield curve, instead of supply and demand, and who consequently thought they were so damn clever spending two months piling into long-USD-short-gold positions this fall, means that it has to skyrocket now.

They were all wrong, and now they must suffer maximum pain for being wrong. This is an ironclad law of the market. Until they all get out of their short positions, gold must continue to go up.

Barry Ritholtz must suffer horribly and publicly for the ignorance and arrogance of his position, and his wailing and gnashing of teeth must equal that of the goldbugs over the past 2 years, before this gold pop stops.

This is how a market works.