In your opinion, what does this blog need more of?

Friday, January 16, 2015

USD-GOLD CORRELATION: the only chart that matters now


And a shout out to my homey Mickey Fulp who got me to pay attention with his excellent writeup showing a correlation of -.96 between gold and USD back in late November, which really got me to pay attention.

Cos it's impossible to correlate gold and USD -0.96 unless nearly the whole market involves shorting gold in US dollars.

Well, check out this chart y'all:


Look at late November. Gold was correlated close to -1 with USD, but also with Euros.

Now look at this month. Gold has switched to a +0.8 correlation with US dollar.

Not only that, it's moving to a positive correlation with Euros.

That means all those white-ass honkeys who were shorting the hell out of gold in late November are now going long.


What does that lying shapeshifter Barry Ritholtz have to say about this? Has he missed out?

I'm sure him and his Bilderberg Masonic masters are going to slam it back down at some point... but til then it's a party, bitches!


THE GOLD CHART THAT WHITEY DOESN'T WANT YOU TO SEE


Again, sorry to keep pounding on this, but I said it was significant when I identified the possible trend, and it still is, and Wall Street Whitey don't want you to see this cos Wall Street Whitey's been hating on gold for two thousand years now, bitches.

Check this:


What this chart's saying is gold has gone up 10% this month.

It just hasn't gone up in Whitey's cracker-ass "dollars" is all. But in the rest of the world they can see the truth, and they're already on board, bitches, and they're sailing away while Whitey's cracker ass is still telling you lies.

Now let me show you what time it is, boyee:



What this chart's telling your powder-white punk ass is that in Europe, gold is now worth just as much as it was in May 2013 before that genocidal white racist motherfucker gave it that second slam to stomp it into the dirt.

That would be the same as Wall Street Whitey paying US$1400 for gold today.

Let that sink in, bitches: gold is selling for US$1400 right now in the Eurozone.

No it's not really, cos whitey's US dollar is lying to you, and it's lying to me, but in the EZ they've got the straight dope on gold, and so it's up 10% this month. But Whitey doesn't want you to know that there's this whole other country called Europe, cos he wants to keep you down.

Let Chuck D and Griff explain it:



Believe the hype, bitches! This is the sequel! And this time, Wall Street Whitey can't stop us, cos gold's going straight to the moon!


Some morning reading


Gold hit $1275. Where's Jeffrey Currie? He still works at Goldman, doesn't he?

Here's the news:


Calculated Risk - OMG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION COLLAPSED. OMG this sounds horbl!:
At 106.5 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in December was 4.9 percent above its level of a year earlier. For the fourth quarter of 2014 as a whole, industrial production advanced at an annual rate of 5.6 percent, with widespread gains among the major market and industry groups.
Yes! Let's concentrate on a +/-50% accuracy single-digit reading for December! Sell! Sell!


Medium.com - the myth of the German saver. Germans are big on racial mythology, aren't they? Quote:
Despite the flood of stories suggesting Germans are a very special breed of people who invest their money in a particularly conservative fashion, it turns out the Germans are basically regular people who invest their money in pretty much the same fashion as the average European.
But don't tell Germans they're nobody special or you won't be able to predict what they'll do next.


Reuters - Chinese funds linked to copper dive. Seems the Mongol horde has been raiding the commodity space for a while now.


Conversable Economist - don't expect oil to bounce back, cheese. Quote:
First, investments in energy production, once they are made, often have some element of sunk costs. Lots of investments in greater supply of energy have been made in the last 10 years or so as oil prices rose rapidly--not just investments in oil, but in many forms of energy production including renewables, and in forms of energy conservation like cars that get higher gas mileage. Those investments are now in place, and remain in place even when oil prices fall. This is part of the reason why the fall in oil prices that happened back in the 1980s persisted for about 15 years: past investments were locked-in. It suggests that the current drop in oil prices may persist for a few years, too.
I for one welcome our new low oil price regime.


The upcoming meeting with Davros


So apparently all the world leaders are getting together next week for a meeting with some guy named Davros?

I googled him, he seems like the type of guy to get things done.

Anyway, considering how much the stupid white people are piddling themselves right now about the danger of an imminent worldwide deflationary collapse (in the US, in Europe, now even in China, blah blah blah), do you think that the world leaders might come up with something co-ordinated to do about it at this big important upcoming meeting?

Or do you instead think that your favourite idiot pundit on TV is smarter than the leaders of the world?


THE ONLY GOLD CHARTS THAT MATTER


These are the only gold charts that matter right now, despite what Wall Street Whitey might tell you.

First, gold in Euros:

Wonder if GLD is seeing any inflows....


ETF.com - top 10 ETFs in share creation. The data is for last week, but according to them GLD saw $16.96M of inflows, which is a bit over 3 tons of gold.

This week the price action's been more exciting, so maybe we'll see higher inflows. You'd think so, anyway.

And thus a bit of gold supply suddenly turns into a bit of gold demand.

Even 10 tons a week across bullion ETFs isn't great, but at least it's 500t/y of physical off the table, and that's definitely something positive.

What's Ritholtz's take on this, anyone know?


Friday videos: The Joy Formidable and a duststorm in Wales


Here's The Joy Formidable again:



I'm especially interested in how much it cost to make a duststorm in Wales for this video.

Fuck guys, kids are starving in the world.

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Verdmont Capital makes a ballsy and/or crazy call, hard to tell


Verdmont Capital - hey ho, RBC is a short.

Ouch.

I don't know the guys at Verdmont, so I don't know if they're Canadian or not. But given the assumption that RBC's position is weak because oil is collapsing, I have to shake my head.

In Canada, for those of you not in the know, we essentially have 5 national banks (RBC, TD/Canada Trust, BMO, CIBC and Bank of Nova Scotia - I wouldn't count National or Caisse). They've always made money, and it's because they essentially control the government. We've always put up with it.

Far as I'm concerned, if the tar sands are dead, the banks will move on to something else. Did you guys call a short on RBC when mining collapsed? How'd that work out?

And then they say this:

It is very difficult to measure the indirect impact that natural resources has on the Canadian economy. Think of all the auxiliary business that results from activity associated with natural resource development, production and transportation. This would feed through to many different sectors of the economy like trucking and transport, various industrials, engineering companies, construction companies, law firms, housing and financial service companies; to name only a few.

Guys, did you try Wikipedia?

The Canadian economy in 2012, composed of the industries below, had a relative weighting by value of GDP:

12.34 Real estate and rental and leasing
10.86 Manufacturing
07.96 Mining quarrying and oil or gas extraction
07.03 Health care and social assistance
06.90 Public administration
06.55 Finance and insurance
05.41 Wholesale trade
05.41 Retail trade
05.38 Educational services
05.21 Professional scientific and technical services
04.20 Transportation and warehousing
03.31 Information and cultural industries
02.58 Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services
02.46 Utilities
02.10 Accommodation and food services
02.04 Other services (except public administration)
01.59 Agriculture forestry fishing and hunting
00.76 Management of companies and enterprises
00.75 Arts entertainment and recreation

Tar sands is only a small slice of "mining quarrying and oil or gas extraction". And when you look at where oil is in the country, that'll give you an idea as to its impact on our economy. Answer: fuck Alberta anyway.

Canada's seen collapses in the resource industry before. Have a look at the entire 1990s, for example. The banks have always gone up.

Now I'd agree (and hope) the collapse in oil is going to destroy Alberta: as already noted, with oil at $30-$40, I'd expect Alberta to run a $15 billion deficit, which will literally destroy the province. That's mainly because it's run by fruitcake right-wingers who have already cut tax revenue to the bone because of the past resource windfall and, now faced with a deficit, will know of no way to deal with it except to cut services.

How do you cut $15 billion in spending out of a $38 billion budget? You don't, they're fucked, end of story.

But as for the rest of Canada, that 8% in "mining, quarrying and oil or gas extraction" happens to a large extent in parts of the country that are quite used to having depressed economies, and which (sorry, guys) nobody else in the country gives a shit about. Go visit Kirkland Lake or Timmins and ask the people there about hard times. It's not going to hit urban central Canada, whose manufacturing industry (that 10.86% up there) is going to be laughing with reduced input costs.

Plus lower fuel costs will help the consumer: not as much as you'd hope cos of our high gas tax, but it's still being noticed.

Guys, Canadian manufacturing and central Canada have been suffering for a decade now, as the tar sands hollowed out the national economy with the help of an Alberta-loving Toronto-hating federal government. Yet the banks have still made money; factor that into your analysis before you short RBC.

As for your real estate argument, that might have some heft to it. There'll certainly be a real estate crash in Alberta (thank god) - we're hearing rumblings already. Certainly the Newfies will all be moving back home, happier and richer. But I don't see how that can possibly affect real estate in Toronto or Vancouver or Montreal. We'll see: certainly a cooling of those markets is a positive.

It'll be interesting btw to see what happens to wages in the broader (not oil, they do other things too) Alberta economy. You'd think service wages would go down, except that's where you find most of the migrants and they might all be leaving now.

And your rate argument is swell, but it applies to US banks as well, and you might be over-reacting to a short and recent move in rates that shouldn't necessarily be expected over the longer term. Rates change.

And then there's this:

Have a walk down Bay Street in Toronto one morning. People are absolutely miserable after their 3 hour commute to their very quiet trading floors. Were it not for their gallon sized cups of Starbucks coffee, these people appear as if they might fall over or be swept away by a stiff breeze.

OK, so you have been to Canada then? Look, people who work on Bay Street might look miserable, but it's because they're fucking hateful cunts it's been a nasty winter. Um... and they're all underground, you won't be seeing them or anyone else walking down Bay Street. The last they see of sunlight in their day is at Union Station.

Hey, you guys are the investment people and I just write a blog. Maybe your call will be a good one. But frankly, I think if you're looking for a good short in the Canadian market right now, there are much better places to look than the banking sector.


GET JEFFREY CURRIE ON THE HORN


Where the hell is Jeffrey Currie?

Cos his $1050 gold price target is looking worse and worse.

Could perhaps some of his clients phone him up and ask him what gives?


This is how gold looks at this second


This is gold:


This is gold ex-US:


Any questions?

Funny thing about round numbers


Well, this is weird.

 QQQ keeps bouncing at $100. Bounced again this morning, in fact.



And SPY keeps bouncing at $200. Again, like this morning so it did.

Of course, both those charts make you ask if maybe this third bounce is the last one before a major failure.

But wow, that silly round numbers theory for stocks does seem to show up at spoooky times, eh?

Let's hope my own "the third time always resolves the other way" theory is proven wrong this time.


Hey, I just made IKN $380


IKN - ha ha Isabella Kaminska sucks I just made $380 on bitcoin. Dude saw the FT mockery of buttcoin and decided to fliptrade it, and made $380.

Well, at least someone's making money off my expert advice....


CSX CEO: QUIT SELLING TRANSPORTS YOU MORONS


Reuters - CSX says hurray for low oil prices, now quit puking our stock. Here's the CEO's failed attempt to inject a smidgen of reason into the stupid US stock market:
"By and large, this (lower oil prices) is a good thing for the economy, for CSX and for our customers," Michael Ward told Reuters in an interview. "It will put more money in consumers' pockets and we will pass on less in fuel surcharges to our customers, which will put more money in theirs."

Late on Tuesday, CSX reported fourth-quarter earnings that met Wall Street expectations and Ward said the railroad expects every quarter in 2015 to be "sequentially better than the one preceding it."

The railroad has also said it will raise prices above the rate of inflation this year as demand continues to rise.

Despite the 50 percent drop in the price of oil since the summer, CSX reported a fourth-quarter increase in crude oil and other shipments. Ward said that during the quarter the railroad handled three and a half trains a day carrying fuel from the Bakken shale formation in North Dakota to refineries in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

CSX's CEO said as long as oil stays above $30 to $35 a barrel producers can continue to make money on existing wells and the railroad does not anticipate any short-term drop in Bakken fuel heading to East Coast refineries.
And the result?


Sigh....

Well, is Norfolk Southern still getting puked?



Sigh....


And as for copper....


Reuters - copper's plunge. On the one hand you get this:
While copper's fortunes have largely tracked those of China for the past decade, this week's meltdown appears more rooted in a conflation of bearish factors: a flight by Chinese hedge funds from commodities; fears about oil-related contagion; and a seasonal dip in demand ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year.

The plunge was "driven by investor panic rather than the sudden deterioration in fundamentals and, as such, it could be swiftly reversed," said Capital Economics chief global economist Julian Jessop.
Well that is insightful commentary.

Of course, "investor panic" driven by "fears about oil-related contagion" can also mean that copper begins a short fast slide to $2 as the speculative premium gets wrung out, the way it was with oil. But the Chinese investor bit is insightful and interesting.

On the other hand the article also gives you this:
"They don't call it "Dr. Copper" for nothing," said Jeffrey Gundlach, co-founder of DoubleLine Capital, which oversees $64 billion in assets under management. "The drop in copper simultaneous with the collapse in crude oil can only be interpreted as an indication of slowing global growth."
You fucking moron, Gundlach.

For those of you not clued in, "can only be interpreted as" is code for "I have no fucking clue and am just pulling theories out of my ass, but since I'm Jeff Gundlach everyone's going to ignore the shitstain on it and take it as some great insight from an investing genius. Throwing in a mention of 'Doctor Copper' will only make my uninformed bullshitting more palatable to the lamestream media, who will think I'm some sort of expert on the subject because I use an overtired, meaningless meme that they've heard of."


Dear Julian Jessop:

You might get paid only a fraction of what Jeff Gundlach makes, but at least you can go to sleep smug in the knowledge that your one quote in this article made you look ten times smarter than him.


GOLD SKYROCKETS: here's what you need to ask yourself


Well, gold flew up to $1260, dropped back to $1250, and is now trading at $1255. Why? Should this change my point of view on a gold miner retrace? Or is it just a silly knee-jerk capitulation? Well, let's check the news and see:


Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Michael Shaoul and Ron Stewart


BNN - Michael Shaoul likes gold now. And he laughs at the pain in the oil industry. By the way, BNN, could you please get rid of all those fucking scripts on your page? I'm not going to shut down my script blocking just for your shitty website.

The Gold Report - Ron Stewart on gold takeover targets. Hey Ron, you sure get around, don't you? First Dundee, then Clarus, and now Macquarie? Anyway, he gives out a whole list of companies he likes, and Brent Cook is happy to be seen in public with him, so go read him.

And speaking of which, here's Mott the Hoople's keyboardist covering Ron Stewart's big hit from the 70s:

Miners probably thinking about a retrace


GDX:


Miners going down while gold goes up doesn't make me feel good, and neither do two red candles in a row.

I've seen some gold stocks look like they're breaking down, so I got out of the miners. In any case, I feel the bullshit in SPY has to be over sometime, so I'm cashing up to go long US markets.


Have you been following zinc and lead?


Kitco - base metals prices.

Yeah we know copper's been pooping its lungs out so hard that it'll be lucky to have any bones left.

But holy shit, zinc $0.93 and lead $0.79?


COPPER GETS ANNIHILATED, BITCOIN GETS ANNIHILATED: here's what you need to know


Well, let's see if the S&P can crash through 2000 today. The US indices are still in the bottom of an upward channel, so it'd be a good time to buy if only they didn't go down from here.

Anyway, here's the news:


Bloomberg - $4T peak in China's foreign reserves pave way for stimulus. China's fed up collecting foreign reserves, so they're going to loosen stuff up now.


Reuters - China December trade data: ur readin it rong. Quote:
Exports in December rose 9.7 percent from a year earlier in dollar-denominated terms, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Tuesday, handily beating a Reuters poll by nearly three full percentage points.

Imports dropped by only 2.4 percent, where analysts' consensus was for a far steeper decline of 7.4 percent.

[...]

The smaller fall in imports than in November was largely due to a resurgence in commodity purchases, and Zheng noted sliding prices had been a net benefit for the country by reducing import costs. China posted a trade surplus of $49.6 billion for the month, smaller than November's record $54.5 billion.

China imported 30.37 million tonnes of crude oil in December, or 7.15 million barrels per day (bpd), topping the 7 million bpd mark for the first time, customs data showed, as the world's largest oil importer took advantage of slumping global prices to fill its strategic reserves.

It also purchased a record high volume of iron ore.
Amazes me how people continue to apply the fanciful Republican political narrative of "our economy is collapsing because Obama" to China, as if the Chinese leadership don't know what they're doing. I guess people really do believe that China is just a state in the USA.


Mining.com - copper price ANNIHILATED. By the way, Frik Els points out something that most of the talking heads in the lamestream media have been ignoring about China's recent "dismal" "horrible" import numbers:
Copper import volumes grew by 6% last year to reach a new annual record of 11.8 million tonnes, while iron ore imports at 932.5 million tonnes for the year were up by 13.8% compared to 2013, also an all-time high.
I.e., Chinese export numbers have been fantastic: their import numbers are down not because of "weakening of consumer demand", but because the commodities they import have crashed in price. Volumes are still high. Quit piddling yourselves over China.


Mining.com - oh god Cookie likes your anium now. Though to be fair, he does say
I'm not interested in any uranium exploration. There are enough uranium deposits sitting out there that are ready to go if the price rises. If you really want to play the uranium market, buy companies with decent resources or reserves near good infrastructure in a known province. I'm not going to go to Peru or Niger looking for uranium; it just doesn't make sense. We have plenty in the U.S., Canada and Australia.
Which does make sense.


IKN - ha ha Buttcoin goes to $190. And related to that,


FT Alphaville - do you have a finance degree from the University of Buttcoin? An utterly merciless attack on the clowns who advocated for Buttcoin all these years. Just one of the six educational points:
5) Bitcoin illustrates beautifully that it’s the country and/or civil society system which puts the value into currency, not the currency which puts the value into the system. On that basis, we learn that any system that is resource dependent, badly managed, unproductive and sustains itself only by offering safe harbour to criminals and tax dodgers is unlikely to be sustainable. Apply that logic to Bitcoin, and you quickly realise, if Bitcoin was a country it would be probably be a failed state.
Well, libertarians have yet another Somalia to look up to now, and it's just a mouseclick away! Spend your buttoins before the value goes to $0.00, boys!

Retail sales and screaming like a fruitcake


Retail sales came in OMG DOWN 0.9%! The clowns at CNBC were screaming like fruitcakes this morning.

So here's your real analysis;

Calculated Risk - retail sales numbers. Quote:
On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.2% from December 2013. Sales in November were revised down from an increase of +0.7% to +0.4%.
So yoy still sees growth.

And what about ex-gasoline?
Retail and Food service sales ex-gasoline increased by 5.5% on a YoY basis (3.2% for all retail sales).
So quit freaking out like a little fruitcake, Liesman.

US market will probably still tank for a while, cos that's what it seems it wants to do right now.


Tuesday, January 13, 2015

SOON THE DOLPHINS WILL KILL US ALL: here's what you need to know


OK, this is weird. Dolphins blowing air rings and playing with them.



They are learning at a geometric rate. Soon they will kill us all.

And you thought we had to fear Skynet.


Dalradian's off to the races


Here:


Green line is the neckline of an inverted head & shoulders. The right side is badly shaped, so it's not a good pattern, but DNA has still broken through that neckline on volume, and I like things going up on volume.

With a neckline of $0.72 and a bottom of $0.48, the linear chart target would be 96 cents.

But if you calculate it logarithmically, the target is actually $1.08.

I'll take the latter SWAG cos I now have $5k at $0.77 and a further $1k of next month's 90 cent warrants, what the hell was I thinking.

Who knows how this turns out? Well, DNA seems to be getting chased right now in the L2, and with volume, so why not? For some reason, people are buying developers - AKG's still strong and even Premier doesn't stink now.


Speaking of which, I'm now less scared about market distortion thru XIV


Speaking of which, I'm now less scared about market distortion thru XIV.

I realized that, if it really was distorting the US equity market, the critics would be able to present futures volume data to back up their point, and yet they haven't.

Look. If the XIV ETF operates by selling short the first and second month $VIX futures, then it's only doing something that CBOE participants could have been doing already for years, right?

If a XIV buy-and-hold strategy was making 5x the profit of a SPY position til June last year, then that means that before XIV existed, the traders could also have made 5x the profit of SPY simply by using the same strategy as XIV.

And if they could have done that 10 years ago, then they must have already been doing it.

And if they did, then the market would already have quickly adapted to eliminate that advantage, because there's not supposed to be any such thing as a trading method that is allowed to consistently beat a passive index strategy.

So the existence of XIV adds nothing new to the market, except an influx of new capital via retail participation in the ETF. That might make the near-month $VIX futures fly around a bit more than they did before, since it's retail and not just futures traders now, but that adds volatility to the US market and that's something we can trade. Big whoop.

XIV as a buy-and-hold should probably be dead by now, and the chart seems to suggest that it died last June or so. But I don't see anymore how XIV could cause chaos in US equities: whatever the market could have done before to wipe out a short-the-near-month-CBOE-$VIX-futures advantage, it can do today.


An example of spoooky TA


Wanna see something spoooky?

Here's a chart of XIV with a lot of stuff taken out:


The Bollinger mean is the dotted blue line between the two solid blue lines.

I find it very spoooky that XIV didn't manage to break above the Bollinger mean on five different days in December, and that it also turned back from the Bollinger mean last week.

That's the thing about TA: you see spoooky stuff happen quite a lot.

Who knows, maybe there was an algo programmed to short XIV at the Bollinger mean?


Tuesday morning news


That previous post should lure 'em all in like catnip.

Now here's the news:


BI - old age and stretched valuations have never caused a bull market to end, evarrr. Sure, but the market can futz around for 6 months doing nothing while people realize this.


Calculated Risk - the recovery in US heavy truck sales. Therefore sell the S&P, I guess.


Gavyn Davies - the global deflation shock. It's all kinda weird. There's the good deflation of collapsing commodity prices, and that'll help consumers. But there's also the structural deflation in the EZ, and that's bad for US exporters. But on top of that, now the emerging markets are going to see lower consumer inflation, so as long as they ain't oil producers they might buck the EM structural bear trend! Quote:
In fact, headline inflation in the eurozone has already fallen to -0.2 per cent in December 2014, and it is now likely to track at about -0.4 per cent for much of 2015, returning to around 0.8 per cent in early 2016. This assumes that ex energy inflation tracks at around 0.5 per cent, close to where it has been in recent months. Unlike in the US, “bad” deflation has been taking hold in the eurozone since 2013 (see the blue line in the graph). The great concern for the ECB is that good deflation will now unhinge price expectations, making bad deflation even worse.

What will be the impact of this decline in US and eurozone inflation on the global economic outlook? After much debate, a consensus is now emerging that the decline in price inflation, with wage inflation remaining roughly unchanged, will result in a major boost to real consumers’ expenditure in the developed economies.

According to J.P. Morgan, this is already clearly visible in the data, with real retail sales in the developed economies now growing at an annualised rate above 3 per cent. Growth in real consumers’ expenditure should touch 5 per cent in the US in coming quarters, and it may reach 2 per cent in the eurozone. This is now beginning to impact industrial production, which is rising at an annual rate of 3.5 per cent in the developed economies.
Gavyn helps by reminding us that Eurozone structural deflation has already been around for years. It's not something new, so quit piddling yourself, Whitey. His summary:
This shock should have been good for non oil equities, which have indeed risen by 6 per cent, and bad for the energy sector, where stock prices have fallen by 15 per cent. Reduced inflation should have brought down 10 year government bond yields, which have indeed fallen by 50 basis points. And the rise in the dollar also looks rational, given the relative absence of bad deflation in the US.

Financial markets often misread economic fundamentals, but I think not this time.
So quit piddling yourselves! Everything is still fine.


Mining.com - PM ETFs still seeing outflows. I like that! If gold is going up while people are selling ETFs, then imagine what gold will do once people switch back to buying!


Goldchat - goldbugs have already experienced their little hyperinflationary event. I just love the snark of this:
"I put it to you that gold and silver bugs have experienced their worst dream only in the opposite in that all their options on gold and silver aka their junior mining stocks have wiped them out in much the same way that a hyperinflationary event would have done."
Ouch! That one hit right in the nads! I should maybe start listening to Dominic Frisby's podcasts. They sound entertaining.


Mining.com - a trader just bet a fortune on a $130 pop in gold by March. To da moon, Alice!


GOLD GOES TO $1550: here's why


I'll start with three charts:

Monday, January 12, 2015

Dear Jeff Currie, gold just broke $1230


Hey Jeff Currie, you still calling for $1050 gold?

Cos it just broke above $1230 US.

And it's broken out to the upside in Euros, Pounds and Swiss Francs.

Care to expand and/or amplify your call?


Some Monday news


Here's some stuff and junk and stuff:

Bespoke - everyone's still bullish. Maybe it's because the Bespoke readership are well-informed by Bespoke's service.

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Quit piddling yourself dude, everything's still okay. You remind me of Cam Hui, freaking out so much about a market drop that he starts reading Mark Hulbert.

Calculated Risk - demographics, unemployment and inflation. Bill McBride seizes on a possible contributing factor to the lack of wage increases: older workers are leaving the workforce and being replaced by younger workers who are paid less. Could be, Bill, but please shut up about it because the US economy would be much better served by a class uprising against the capitalist kleptocrats.

FT Alphaville - ha ha hedge funds you suck. Institutional investors are figuring out that they've wasted 5 years of the strongest bull market in history by earning a measly annual return of 3.6% from hedge funds. The hedge funds have scammed 2.4% on top of that, which means probably the only thing they care about right now is maintaining a large enough pool of suckers.

FT Alphaville - storing oil at sea will turn out to be a bad idea. Only 1 day behind me, Izzy, you're getting better.

One part of the US market is still ignoring the volatility


OMGWEALLGONNoh wait:


Homebuilders ETF still looks fantastic. Almost as if they're predicting continued improvement in the US economy over the next year instead of "deflation".


Home Despot is still doing fine, almost as if they think US consumers will continue to buy home goods over the next year.


Welcome to Costco... I love you...

Yet Norfolk Southern, an eastern seaboard rail and intermodal provider, is still down 10%. A sarcastic bastard would say that this means the market thinks all Americans who are about to buy homes will furnish them with locally-manufactured goods, instead of exploiting the strong US dollar and buying imports.

Alternately, it means the market is a moron.


Since IKN likes when I do TA on his favourite stocks....


Rio Alto:


That's an inverse head and shoulders, and a break above the $2.70 neckline will activate a target of about $4 on a logarithmic chart.

If you believe in that sort of stuff, of course.

Cue Hans und Franz:



AKG breaks out?


Asanko:


This crappy dog finally broke out. God, holding this stock while everything else flies upwards is a pain in the butt. Hope it manages to catch up.


Gold ex-USD looks great


Still going up, guys:


Problem is, if I have to do TA for a target on this, I guess I'd have to draw an Andrews Fork or something, and frankly I can't be arsed with that level of TA.

Instead, let's just point out that gold has broken out and is appreciating quickly in Euros, in Swissie and in GBP. That means there are now three large populations of white-ass cracker honkies who have suddenly realized they'd better switch from short gold to long gold.

What's Ritholtz been up to recently?


BMO upgrades Agnico to a buy - $7 too late


Apparently, BMO just upgraded AEM to a buy.


Well duh, we're in the middle of the Jan-Feb junior miners pop. Of course you upgrade miners to a buy right now if you want to make yourself look smart.

The question is why BMO didn't upgrade AEM in late December when it was $7 cheaper.

Maybe that BMO analyst should subscribe to Mickey Fulp's free newsletter, so he can get ahead of the curve? And yes, that was meant to sound exactly that silly.

Hey, BMO guys: just remember to downgrade all the miners to sells on the week before PDAC. Just make something up, doesn't matter what it is, you'll still look like geniuses.


Sunday, January 11, 2015

150-car pileup on I-94 in Michigan


And this, people, is the reason that the law demands you "drive according to road conditions", and not fucking speed at 70mph in a fucking blizzard.



And we'll keep getting these accidents until people start getting sent to prison for 10 years for driving like idiots.



Well, at least they had fireworks. U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!

My opinion on Charlie Hebdo


For my opinion on the Charlie Hebdo attack, all you have to do is go to Wikipedia:

Wikipedia - List of Islamic terrorist attacks.