Saturday, December 12, 2015
Some weekend news
New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Purchase applications, real estate loans, M1, M2 and tax withholding are all positive. Those are the actual US domestic economy, people. Industrial and world economy all suck, but the US is a service economy and a net importer so fuck knows why people get worked up about industrial and commodities.
WSJ RTE - quits and layoffs finally get to where Janet Yellen wants them. I guess the argument is (barring continued commodity collapse) inflation should begin to accelerate with unemployment down to its natural rate, and s/(f+s) gives you some sort of clue where the natural rate is? I'd still say she's probably smart enough to not fuck up the economy, unlike that clown at Stifel who came out this weekend saying "Yellen painted herself into a corner this summer and now she's going to wreck everything". Cos, y'know, one of these two people heads the Federal Reserve, and the other is a fucking sellside retard at Stifel.
New Deal Demoncrat - gas prices already below last year's low. Yes, therefore we should puke the S&P 500, because consumers have more money in their pockets.
WSJ RTE - could higher interest rates lead to higher inflation? I dunno about neo-Fisherism, but I'd like someone to tell me whether a higher Fed Funds rate will increase the cost of holding money enough to drive cash back into investment.
FT Alphaville - India's suspicious GDP deflator. Don't believe the India GDP headlines.