Monday, December 7, 2015

Bill McBride obviously hasn't heard of Raoul Pal

Calculon's Risk - the endless parade of recession calls. OK, first I enjoyed how quickly he smacked down Citi's idiotic piece:

Also on Friday I posted an excerpt from a Citi's research piece also suggesting a 65% chance of a recession in 2016. [...]

This is just an historical statistical approach based on elapsed time.

Which really is a well-deserved, quick, devastating mocking of a "blah blah secular bulls last X years on average, oh look where we are now, therefore dooooom" call.

Really, truly, nobody should ever pull that "historically..." bullshit unless they (1) have a statistically significant dataset (which nobody has) and (2) can show that there's nothing different going on beneath the surface this time (which there is).

But this next bit concerned me:

Raoul Pal, the publisher of The Global Macro Investor, reiterated his bearishness ... "The economic situation is deteriorating fast." ... [The ISM report] "is showing that the U.S. economy is almost at stall speed now," Pal said. "It gives us a 65 percent chance of a recession in the U.S."

Goddamn it Bill, aren't you reaching awfully hard there? Are there so few bear calls out there that you had to quote a CNBC interview with fruitcake Raoul Pal?

You've never heard of him?

He's Mr. Bottom-Tick himself. Last time he called for doom was June 2012; the market then went up a further 50%.* Grant Williams and John Mauldin use his bullshit to pump to their lemmings. And he lurves pumping that bitcoin.

Bill, just ignore that clown. Your blog is above mentioning that sort of person.

* - it is interesting to note that Gary Wordsalad loves Raoul Pal's bullshit too. Says something about his judgment.

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