Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Tuesday news


New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Real estate loans, money supply and gas usage are all up, and tax withholding is positively stellar. The weakness in transports is still maybe just an inventory and natural resources thing.

Calculated Risk - hotel occupancy on track for best year evarr. A minor economic indicator that still looks good.

NY Times - the mystery of the vanishing pay raise. There's no mystery: once you destroy labour's terms of trade, pay raises no longer happen. Just another proof that secular stagnation is the product of paleoconservative ideology.

FRB SF Economic Letter - are wages a useful predictor of inflation? They say no. I say that's maybe because of the triumph of paleoconservative ideology and the collapse of labour's terms of trade.

Reuters - Japan final October manufacturing PMI hits 1 year high. If you've been following Shaoul, he's also noted that credit formation has continued to progress in response to Abenomics.

Balding's World - so you want a bearish view on China? Firms' liabilities are growing by 10% a year while profits are stagnant, he says. Well, that's quite bearish a thing to say. I wonder if he averaged profits across all Chinese industries, including all the steel mills that are going to be shut down.

Bloomberg - India's railways are also fucked. How is India supposed to deliver decades of 10%/y growth when their railways are always operating beyond capacity? You see, this is why it was smart for China to build 10 years' worth of infrastructure expansions in advance.

Mining.com - Alan Garcia makes mining a key pillar of his presidential campaign. I'll give you the link because it seems the only Peru news you get out of Otto Rock nowadays is the latest soap operas from Minera IRL.

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