Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Some news

Did my polisci presentation yesterday, so now I'm done most of my work til the finals.

Here's some news:

Calculated Risk - chemical activity barometer stabilizes. So is that the end of the industrial recession?

Bespoke - jobless claims at 260k. So there's no imminent dooooom, then?

Calculated Risk - personal income and PCE. So can we stop puking the S&P now, please?

Simon Wren-Lewis - economists and political capture. Quote:
Why is it necessary to repeat once again what is a consensus position among most economists? Alas there are powerful political interests within the Eurozone that want to foster an alternative narrative, which sees every country like Greece. This erroneous narrative has already done great damage, creating a second recession from excessive fiscal tightening and insufficient monetary easing across the Eurozone.

It is natural at this point to talk about Germany, and the fact that as a result of low wage increases undercutting Eurozone neighbours before the recession, Germany is not suffering as much from this recession as other countries. But I have often tried to avoid stopping there, and instead to ask whether Germany's strange stance on these macro issues simply reflects this different conjunctural position. I think the answer is no.

I'm increasingly drawn to the view that Germany's stance reflects similar political economy pressures as you will find in other OECD economies: there is no German exceptionalism, but rather that the forces that everywhere are pushing austerity and tighter monetary policy happen for various reasons to be stronger in Germany. From this perspective, this post from Frances Coppola is particularly interesting. Perhaps the problem at the heart of the Eurozone is that economic policy advice in Germany has been effectively captured by employers' interests, and perhaps the interests of banks in particular.
Keep it up, Simon! Maybe one day people will listen to reason instead of the banksters. Haha no seriously.

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