Saturday, September 26, 2015

Some Saturday news

Here's some news, then it's off to either doing homework or avoiding doing homework:

Gavyn Davies - financial conditions for the Fed. The main takeaway is that exogenous conditions alone have
resulted in a reduction in US GDP growth of 0.5 per cent (year on year); and this drag will increase to 0.8 per cent by 2015 Q4.
However, the Fed members (or at least the ones who aren't idiots) determine when to raise based on its expectations of where things will be going a year from now.

Calculated Risk - Q2 GDP revised upward to 3.9%. But you go ahead and keep dumping stock based on some supposed coming armageddon, Whitey!

US BEA - the Q2 GDP NR. Here, let's quote some stuff:
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Is that good? Well, why don't you ask some clown with a doomer blog somewhere to explain it to you?

New Deal Demoncrat - new home prices psf show an affluent-centred market, not a bubble. They still aren't building homes for poor people.

The Krugginator - Chinese spillovers. K-dog goes into some basic international trade economics to 'splain how even a 5% drop in Chinese GDP wouldn't be a world-shaking event and therefore Willem Buiter should quit piddling his frilly little pink girl-panties. He includes a picture of a giant New-York-destroying tsunami as a hat-tip to Business Insider who would never publish any insightful opinion from anyone anyway.

BTW, I would suggest that P-to-the-K should read Joe Stiglitz's Globalization and its Discontents for a boots-on-the-ground explanation of how the 1998 Asian crisis unfolded: in fact, most of the contagion was caused by IMF policies, and now enough people over there have heard of Mahathir Mohamad that they'll be more cautious today in accepting the incompetent bullshit that White-ass honky slave-dealers pass off as "competent advice".

Global Times - NDRC defends credibility of China GDP data. Quote:
A Bloomberg report on August 18 suggested that the Chinese economy was growing more slowly than the official data had indicated, citing a survey it conducted among 11 economists.

The survey indicated that the first half growth rate was 6.3 percent, rather than the official 7 percent, according to Bloomberg.

The NDRC's post on Wednesday dismissed such media reports and surveys as being "too arbitrary."

The NDRC also noted that electricity usage, volume of freight and other goods indexes can not determine whether the Chinese economy is growing more slowly, because the services sector and the pharmaceutical, electronic, telecommunications and high tech industries account for an increasing proportion of the Chinese economy.

Zhong Dajun, director of the Beijing Dajun Institute for Economic Observation, also said that measuring China's economic growth just by looking at energy consumption and other "old economic indexes" is not accurate.

"As China's economy is moving toward being more high-tech and energy-efficient, those indexes we used before can't draw a full picture of the economy anymore," Zhong told the Global Times Wednesday, adding that the official GDP data was "reasonable and accurate."

However, Zhong noted that for a country "as large as China, and with an economy as complex as China's, it's normal that economic statistics have a margin of error."

Xu Hongcai, an expert at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said it is true that energy consumption, exports and some other indexes are falling, but booming industries such as e-commerce and the services sector should not be overlooked.

"As China continues to optimize its economic structure, we need to look at it differently," Xu told the Global Times on Wednesday.

"We should also look at the new industries and take new technologies and innovations into account," Xu said.
With the caveat that of course the Chinese government would say this. Still, I'd rather hear opinion on China data from the mouth of a proper economist who actually compiles and analyzes data, instead of from some coke-snorting hedge fund kleptocrat who once read an article on BI about the "Li Keqiang index".

I would link to a Jim O'Neill article, but my opinion on him has gone downhill now that he works for that douchenozzle crypto-Nazi with the eminently-punchable face, George Osborne. Don't ever come back to Manchester, Jim: they won't want you now that you're a traitor.

Chronicles of Brodrick - OMG gold chart breakout!!!!1! Uh, no, Sean. At best all you can say is the brutal downtrend of the summer has slowed. Up/down volume bars still look fucking horrible.

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