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Monday, September 28, 2015

Some Monday news



Thought I'd take studying a bit more seriously, so I'll be posting even less. But still, here's some news:

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Same as last week basically: his thesis is still US consumer expansion simultaneous with a worldwide industrial recession.


Calculated Risk - vehicle sales still good, quit piddling your panties. Though there's a calendar effect.


WSJ RTE - top US financial diplomat's view on China. But then he pipes in about commodities:
But as low prices and anemic growth prospects cause stagnation in exploration and production investment, the amount of superfluous supply, or excess capacity, should gradually thin.

And “with over 1 billion Chinese and over a billion Indians looking for Western kinds of lifestyles, I think over the medium and long run, there will be ample demand for commodities,” Mr. Sheets said.
So quit piddling your panties, goldbugs!


Reuters - VW scandal exposes cozy ties between auto industry and Berlin. More on the endemic corruption in Germany. Quote:
But there is one constant: the clout of the auto industry in German politics.

This relationship, which some describe as symbiotic, bordering on incestuous, is in the spotlight now, as Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE), the country's largest carmaker, reels from an emissions scandal that has forced out its long-time CEO Martin Winterkorn and sent its stock careening lower.

[...]

But authorities in Germany and elsewhere in Europe had known for years about the widening gap between emissions values measured in official laboratory tests and those recorded in a real-world environment.

Yet, critics say, Berlin fought hard to shield its carmakers from closer scrutiny and, in a high-profile clash with its European partners two years ago, from tougher emissions targets. Merkel has defended the stance as necessary in order to protect jobs in the sector.

Some see the VW scandal as symptomatic of a deeper problem in which German car companies have been allowed to do as they please without oversight or fear of reprisals from Berlin.
That sounds like corruption to me, Germany! So when are you going to clean up your corrupt kleptocratic regime?


Calculated Risk - Yellen still sees raising rates before end of year. In her talk at UMass Amherst (where someone who I went to highschool with is a professor of economics, interestingly; and btw it's also apparently a heterodox school so that might tell you something about Yellen's common sense) she made mention of the "special factors" causing inflation to be temporarily below target.

For example, oil really started to plummet last October, and got serious in November. Now, did you know that CPI and the Deflator are year-over-year measures? Well, that means the deflationary shock of low oil prices will have worked its way through the system entirely by next January. The CRB index will still be -10% at that point, but at least it won't be -30%. These may positively impact the inflation rate by January, at which point the Fed has to already be raising rates to make itself look ahead of the curve.

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