Friday, August 21, 2015

Steve Liesman talks sense, and preopen VIX futures

Steve Liesman said something sensible on CNBC this morning: that it's gotten silly how, every time the market goes up a few points it's a "bubble", and every time it goes down a few points it's a "crash", and it's been this stupid way since 2008.

And really that's true. Which is why I love playing $VIX shorts using idiot mainstream media as buy and sell points.

So let's look at the $VIX futures before the open (a few minutes out of date now):

And unfortunately the front end is backwardated, so no matter what happens today (with a -1% move indicated at the open) I'll have to wait a couple days before buying, since otherwise I'll lose money on rollover. But with the first 4 months at ~17.5, and the probability that at some point in the next month it'll go back to 12-13, this is another chance to flip for a big win.

As long as everyone doesn't freak out and puke the S&P by 30%. For no particular reason.

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