Saturday, August 29, 2015

Some weekend reading, including what REAL sarcasm looks like

Some stuff and junk and stuff for those of you who want to flee from the meaningless babble of the goldbug world:

New Deal Demoncrat - hey, did you know corporate profits are a long leading indicator? And they're trending up?

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. He's still paying attention to the flawed Gallup poll and doesn't give enough credit to tax withholding. NDD, here's a link for some frilly little pink panties, I think you'd better stock up.

Bespoke - the great ETF crash of 2015. Was it really just a bunch of fruitcake retail types who puked the ETFs so bad on Monday that RSP dropped 43%? REALLY? Because if I remember correctly, when I checked on Monday morning the order book had dried up completely, and there were 10% bid-ask spreads on formerly decently liquid TSX-traded ETFs. Seems to me this was more of a purposeful robot-driven crash, if not an outright Soviet sabotage of the market.

Not that you'll ever hear about anything like that in the news. Hush hush.

Mark Thoma - a pretend interview with the Fed. All his points against a September rate hike are quite sensible, and he definitely scores great on the sarcasm front, which leads one to wonder why Mark Thoma is only a lowly professor of economics at Oregon State, instead of heading the Fed? Maybe it's because the people heading the Fed are quite a lot more intelligent and sensible than Mark Thoma gives them credit for, and maybe they already understand all his arguments and agree with them?

Hey Mark, do you think the people at the Fed have heard of that Trichet guy who sent a continent back into depression with an early rate hike? Hm? Or are they dummies? Hey, btw... does your spouse have a Nobel in economics? Cuz Janet's spouse does.

And hey Mark, when was the last time you were the governor of the Bank of Israel or chief economist at the World Bank? Cos Fischer was, and he's the dummy of the bunch over there.

Seriously, Mark. Have the Fed proven themselves idiots at any time in the past 8 years, say? No? Then why not just assume they'll continue not being idiots, at least until contrary evidence presents itself?

You're sounding like a bit of a fucking Republican loonie, Mark: better get your blood sugar tested before you start blaming stuff on Mexicans and negroes.

WSJ RTE - what changed over two weeks of market turmoil? Nothing. Here's that goddamn sense that needs to be beaten into everyone's thick skull:
it’s hard to conclude the stock-market drop heralds a serious economic slowdown or recession. Economic indicators that typically pick up the first signs of trouble, such as first-time claims for unemployment insurance, are steady or improving.
What about the rest of the world? China’s economy is slowing, and probably by more than the official 7% growth rate indicates. But alternative measures, such as industrial production, exaggerate the slowdown because China’s economy is shifting to services, which are more labor intensive.
Also, China has been shutting down marginal producers for over a year now, to reduce oversupply and fight pollution. That affects industrial numbers. Why the fuck has everyone forgotten this? Or did Whitey never follow the China news in the first place?

Gavekal Dragonomics, a China-based economic advisory, notes that shares comprise just 5% of Chinese household wealth. Share issuance is not a significant funding source for Chinese companies. Property prices are far more important to household wealth and as collateral for bank loans. House prices and sales have actually rebounded recently because of lower interest rates and fewer restrictions on purchases.
and for the love of fuck why hasn't anyone fucking understood that
An epic boom in commodity prices has been unraveling since 2011. But they are not falling solely because of lessening demand from China, but also because of rising supply, especially of oil, by producers. Thus, rather than a net negative for the world, the latest downdraft should be seen as a negative for commodity exporters such as Russia and Canada and a positive for importers such as India and the United States.
I have had a fucking headache for the past two weeks from all the ignorant fucking clueless garbage I've read about how commodity price drops signal an imminent worldwide depression, or imminent China collapse, or goddamn fucking worldwide deflationary spiral for the love of fuck.

Commodity prices also depend on supply. Chile is made out of copper, Australia is made out of iron ore, and Texas is floating on a sea of oil. The only reason any of those prices go up is because of demand temporarily outstripping supply.

But now supply has expanded to meet demand. This is not a recession. This is not a depression. This is what happens in every DM secular bull market, and even a goddamn insane fruitcake goldbug like Jim Rogers knows this.

der Spargel - mass Balkan exodus puts pressure on Germany. Hey, Germany! Why is it that you allow corporations to cross borders at will in search of the most favourable tax regime, yet you make it a crime for human beings to cross borders in search of more favourable employment? Is it because globalization is just another fucking scam of the kleptocratic elite, and your country is just as corrupt as the rest of them?

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