Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Everything's okay again, stop piddling yourself


BI - US futures rip higher, ignore what Blodget was saying this weekend about how stocks were going to fall 50%. And it's all because of a 0.5% cut in China's reserve ratio. Now the world is better again. Or something. Fuck I dunno. Here's David Kostin from Goldman Sachs:

"We expect the US economy will avoid contagion and continue to expand. S&P 500 will rise by 11% to reach 2,100 at year-end."

Kostin thinks we could experience something similar to what we saw in 1998, when a currency crisis in Asia resulted in only temporary jitters in the US.

"S&P 500 plunged by 14% during August 1998 before rallying by 29% during the last four months of the year," he wrote. "Ultimately, the US economy was relatively unaffected by overseas financial market gyrations in 1998 and we believe a similar situation will occur in 2015."

And if you remember, 1998 was late in the cycle, and there was still a shitload of money to be made in the US market after that correction.

And despite what a lot of people are saying, we're still probably early in the US cycle: progress out of the crash bottom has been slower, housing hasn't taken off yet, wages haven't risen yet, unemployment has only just gotten out of the danger zone, we've had 6 years of government spending cuts and spending will only be able to increase when state governments are in surplus, and there's been no initiation of rate rises yet.

Those of you who e.g. puked Ford to $10.50 yesterday should probably take the rest of your money out of the market and buy CDs because you're a danger to yourself and your portfolio. And that means you, hedge fund cokehead clowns.

No comments:

Post a Comment