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Saturday, May 30, 2015

More economics weekend reading: Jeremie Cohen-Setton tells you more than you ever needed to know about winter seasonality


Bruegel - the residual seasonality puzzle. An article that serves as a clearing-house for informed commentary on the American "winter seasonality" problem. I found this bit very compelling:

Justin Wolfers writes that the puzzle of the first-quarter slump seems to be confined only to G.D.P. There is no indication of similar problems affecting the seasonal patterns of other economic indicators. For instance, an alternative (seasonally adjusted) measure of economic growth called gross domestic income has not recorded an unusual number of first-quarter slumps. Likewise, there is no systematic difference in the quarterly pattern of seasonally adjusted growth in nonfarm payrolls.

By the way, Jeremie? Let me show you a quote from Wolfers' article:

I could find no indication of similar problems affecting the seasonal patterns of other economic indicators. For instance, an alternative (seasonally adjusted) measure of economic growth called gross domestic income has not recorded an unusual number of first-quarter slumps. Likewise, there is no systematic difference in the quarterly pattern of seasonally adjusted growth in nonfarm payrolls.

Sound familiar?

Anyway, from the looks of it, if GDI and NFP don't show this seasonality, then the GDP seasonality problem really must be just an excel spreadsheet error.

Serious, I wouldn't put it past anyone.


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