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Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Tuesday morning news

Markets are getting interesting again, the doomer sphere has become very interesting again with story after story about how you should flee stocks, and so now we can start paying attention to the news again:

BI - bubble fears hit the highest level on record. How can we be so sure there's a bubble? Because everyone's pulling their money out of stocks and going into cash! God, give your fucking head a shake. Oh, and the last time there was a peak in people thinking equities were overvalued, according to BAML's chart? 2004. Right before the S&P flew up by 55% over 3 years. Seems that, according to their chart, you're better off selling when everyone thinks shares are fairly valued.

BI - Norfolk Southern wage warning. And thus transports are taking a dive. Because obviously, American workers getting paid more will result in a decrease in consumption, and thus lower transportation earnings, because wharrgarbl potato Rand Paul. Seriously, this is what happens when you let Republican morons manage other people's money: they fuck shit up and underperform SPY.

BI - can you believe some bozo is investing in the market right now? BI laughs at this advice:
Assuming you’re investing this money for the long term — and you have sufficient cash set aside to meet short-term needs and emergencies — go ahead and invest it all at once, says Jerry Miccolis, founding principal of Giralda Advisors, a Madison, N.J. firm that specializes in risk management. "Don’t let headlines about the market hitting new highs make your nervous because, if the market does what it’s supposed to do, that should be the norm," says Miccolis.
He's right. There has never been a time when the US market yielded a negative return over 10 years. Markets are supposed to go up. It's what they do. Capital produces more and more wealth. If you doubt it, then you obviously don't believe in capitalism.

New Deal Demoncrat - the next recession is likely to include wage deflation. So... I guess that means the Fed is likely to keep things accommodative to ensure wage growth speeds up? Or do you think they're so deep in the pockets of big business that they will strangle wage growth at the behest of their corporate masters and put the US in jeopardy of a permanent deflationary spiral next time they tighten to halt overheating? Basically, are you a conspiracy nut or are you a well-adjusted human being?

Econospeak - economists discover the world! Guy really gives a bitch-slap to the supposed "Keynesians" debating secular stagnation:
You mean to tell me that up to now economists have left out the international dimension? If only these New Keynesians had read Keynes, they would have known that Keynes was on to this dilemma in the early 1930s. "National Self-sufficiency," 1933:

"...I have become convinced that the retention of the structure of private enterprise is incompatible with that degree of material well-being to which our technical advancement entitles us, unless the rate of interest falls to a much lower figure than is likely to come about by natural forces operating on the old lines. Indeed the transformation of society, which I preferably envisage, may require a reduction in the rate of interest towards vanishing point within the next thirty years. But under a system by which the rate of interest finds, under the operation of normal financial forces, a uniform level throughout the world, after allowing for risk and the like, this is most unlikely to occur. Thus for a complexity of reasons, which I cannot elaborate in this place, economic internationalism embracing the free movement of capital and of loanable funds as well as of traded goods may condemn this country for a generation to come to a much lower degree of material prosperity than could be attained under a different system."
Oh you didn't! - hedge funds double gold price bets. God, I so don't like being on the same side of the trade as these ignorant white-ass honkies. I bet gold crashes to $1100 now. Everything Whitey touches, he fucks up.

Rocket News 24 - people in Japan are concerned another earthquake is imminent. Pay attention you Business Insider clowns - this is proper dooming:
First up, we had the well-documented mass beaching of a bunch of melon-headed whales (which we are told are actually a type of dolphin and not tiny whales) that happened a few days ago in Ibaraki Prefecture, with around half of the 150 beached dolphins reported to have died. And while some of you may shrug and write this off as a sad accident of some sort, the rest of us are freaking the $’&# out, because just before the last time Japan experienced a major earthquake (you know the one), there was a similar mass beaching of around 50 of the same type of dolphin, and dolphins running themselves aground before major earthquakes has been documented in other parts of the world too.

Now, animals acting weird right before earthquakes is a well-documented thing. Just take a look at this otherwise normal-looking dog that sniffs the ground for a second and then bolts off like there’s someone having a Beggin’ Strips party in the other room just seconds before a 6.5 earthquake strikes the area.


And, there’s more…

Late Saturday night, April 11, Twitter suddenly lit up with countless Tweets coming out of Mie Prefecture of people claiming they felt tremors and even heard the earth itself briefly rumbling, which to those who experienced the last catastrophic earthquake probably seems like the geological equivalent of a guy cracking his knuckles just before delivering a major ass-kicking.

Still not enough to induce pants-wetting terror for you? On Sunday, April 12, many in Japan reported seeing a so-called “earthquake cloud” looming in the sky.

地震雲も出てるそうじゃないか… もう泣きそう

ネコレ (@ravedesole) April 11, 2015

While this is probably the most tenuous evidence for an impending earthquake, such clouds have been reported prior to major earthquake events since antiquity and, while, largely, not endorsed by the scientific community, earthquake clouds definitely get a lot of traction with the sandwich board crowd.
Oh good. Time to get out of You might laugh, but I think Japanese would have a better understanding of portents of earthquakes, having experienced them for the millenium and a half that their civilization has been in Japan. - I went from broke to an instant millionaire. A gringo hippy learns how cheap it is to live in Venezuela. Get this:
For a single US dollar ($1.31) I could buy 12 beers, get a bed for the night, take two taxis or eat in a nice restaurant. I could fill up a car at a local gas-station for 2 bolivars, around 1 US cent.
Sounds great, I guess, as long as you can handle it.

Oh and as for China, our swarthy buddy notes that H shares are only trading at a P/E of 10.39, which to him is reasonable, and sounds reasonable to me too for a country that should grow at over 4% for the next decade. So yeah, no imminent crash in China, guys. P/E multiples go up when there is more capital than there is demand for it.

1 comment:

  1. They have that earthquake weather thing here too (though they have a combo of clouds and wind). I used to laugh about it, but I don't laugh any more. And enough with the rude double entendres about Copper Mountain there are children reading this blog you know.