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Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Morning market comment


Two charts:


Nasdaq is simply working off its overbought condition from Friday and filling the gap.

Apparently blah blah biotech blah blah bubble is a thing now too. Because it's not like Biogen and Celgene are rolling in cash, right?

Oh and also blah blah Fed meeting blah blah rate rise is a thing, so a couple days of fear narrative can build a more constructive position for the market to then react to the improvement in economic data that we'll be getting all through Q2.

And then there's $VIX:



I did say last Friday that I thought 12 point something was a bad place to go long, except maybe in a breakout, yeah? Well, now Whitey feels he has to buy downside protection against a possible false breakout. That'll eventually set up a declining-$VIX signal that'll make the robots happy in a day or two.

For the time being, any $VIX below 15 doesn't scare me. Any $VIX above 15 is an eventual opportunity to short $VIX - as long as the front months aren't changing their curve, of course.

And gold popped, and it's not because blah blah Fed blah blah economic data. Gold popped because the Chinese and Indians are about to go on another summer buying spree. And because Whitey was misled into expecting a final collapse. Turns out we were being handed the script by GDX all along.

Even godawful MUX and BTG have popped above their SMA(50)s.Turns out patience might just be rewarded over the next couple months.


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