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Thursday, April 30, 2015

Don't believe everything you hear about the monsoon


To wit:

CNBC - OMG India monsoon failure! Anusya Harjani hasn't bothered to ever look at the data, which would tell even the most casual observer that aggregate Indian agricultural output isn't seriously affected by a rainfall of 7% below average.


Meanwhile, from the news in the country that actually knows something about India, such as how to find it on a map and that its capital isn't named "Indianapolis":

Indian Economic Times - two weather forecasters enter! One weather forecaster leaves! IMD is facing off this year against a new up-and-comer, Skymet, who disputes IMD's forecast for below-normal rains. And for what it's worth, IMD failed to predict four droughts in eight years in the 2000s. The real story, which whitey is ignoring, is this:
Singh is in fact more worried about the searing rains that he says will continually lash India for much of May — typically supposed to be a dry-rain starved month — and contribute to instances of crop loss. Concerns over farmer distress because of unseasonal rains have rocked parliament and therefore rain — deficient or in excess — is likely to be a hot topic this year.
But it doesn't matter anyway because Indians don't buy gold. Right, whitey?


3 comments:

  1. There's geology in play too. Due to the porosity of the Deccan Traps, the water drains away quickly from the topsoil in a large part of the main agro zone. Therefore the amount of rain isn't so important, it's getting constant rainfall that really matters to India.

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    1. The hell? You been reading geology in your spare time?

      Thankfully the porosity of the Deccan doesn't change from one year to the next.

      They also use cisterns to collect water, and some Indians even have this newfangled thing called irrigation.

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    2. That's you assuming and not knowing. Try again.

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