Sunday, April 5, 2015
Back to work news
Been off for several days, so it seems, so let's get back to some news reading:
Calculated Risk - on the disappointing jobs report. Funny nuff, he breaks down the data - average hourly earnings, employment-to-pop ratio, part-time for economic reasons, unemployed over 26 weeks, state and local government - and doesn't find one single negative. So how exactly does the headline number get to be 126,000? Can you explain that, Bill?
Bespoke - countdown to liftoff. They seem to think the first rate hike won't be until January 2016. The Bespoke guys have always impressed me with their dispassionate objectivity, so it'll be interesting to watch and see if they get it right yet again.
New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. He's taken up the idea of the world exporting economic contraction to the US. I'd suggest that maybe he tries skating to where the puck is going to be: do we expect the same contraction in the future from the EZ and Japan? Or will things start to turn up?
FT Alphaville - what if the Fed raises rates but then rates go down? Interesting question, especially in light of the "global savings glut" story.
Calculated Risk - mall vacancy rate declined. Hey, by the way: do you remember a few years ago when some clown was saying that commercial real estate was going to collapse, bringing about another 2009-style apocalypse? No? Cuz I do. Whatever happened to that dolt?
FT Alphaville - HSBC on the US dollar. Basically, a long-winded pile of blather from HSBC on how they think the USD move is overextended. Guys, I managed to say the same thing in one sentence a couple weeks ago.
Larry Summers - response to Bernanke on secular stagnation. He notes that secular stagnation can be countered by expansionary fiscal policy, since any public investment with a positive yield will pay its cost in a negative real rates environment, and he's right. I would reply to Summers, though, that if secular stagnation is the result of a glut of savings, that's because the plutocratic class has succeeded in capturing government: and you shouldn't then expect the plutocrats to use secular stagnation for the benefit of the proletariat, who they hate and want to exterminate, or at least enslave.
Ben Bernanke - don't worry, the global savings glut will fix itself. Yeah I dunno. It might fix itself with a global revolution of the proletariat against the kleptocratic elite.
Schwab - Japanese stocks should continue to rise. Michelle Gibley ain't Liz-Ann Sonders, but I guess that's okay now that Liz has turned into a doomer. One big data point here, which I haven't seen mentioned yet, is the massive increase in stock buybacks.
Jeffrey Kleintop - growth imminent in Europe. Yeah that's nice, Jeff, except you've spent the past few months whining that the US market looks toppy. What, now you're saying that US growth will improve because European growth improves? Or will you fucking admit that improved EZ growth will be answered with new austerity in Germany, thus fucking up the entire EZ economy yet again? Asswipe.
FT beyond brics - do windfalls of public funds encourage corruption? Evidence from Bulgaria. And, again, proof that the public spending multiplier tends towards <1 in countries with high corruption, and thus corruption is a drag on growth, and that's why third-world countries go into secular bear markets. Basically, neopatrimonialism is what happens when you graft an industrial economy on a medieval-to-stone-age social structure.