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Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Market comment - HYG rolling over again


HYG is rolling over again:


Which is maybe happening cos oil is tanking further:


And the question is whether this carries through yet again to a generalized selloff of the US equity markets:


I don't see why that should happen, since we already had this selloff in equities a month ago, driven by the same crap, and you'd have to think Whitey sold off SPY because of the January trajectory of oil and not the January price of oil.

And in any case, Janet Yellen will change everything tomorrow afternoon.

So I'm not going to worry. In any case, a further 5% drop in US equities would mean a further long position from moi.

As for gold, I think the $1.2 billion notional spike at 10AM was probably some hedge fund dumbass closing out his long-USD-short-gold position (with piss-poor execution) on what seems like a finishing climax in the USD move. Either that, or maybe some dumbass sees the weakness in USD and wanted to squeeze the gold shorts with a new long position (with good execution).

Doesn't matter cos India doesn't buy gold til June and July.

But at least it makes this chart suddenly look bad:


Cos now gold ex-US has lost the SMA(50). Losing the Bollinger mean next might mean a whole world of pain for gold longs, because gold will start to look like crap in Euros.


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