Friday, March 20, 2015

Friday morning news

Here's some news:

Bespoke - breadth holding up. I think Brett Steenbarger has fallen victim to "market indicator cerebro-anal transposition syndrome". Bespoke, on the other hand, has always been good at boiling everything down to the simplest and making you money doing it.

FT Alphabits* - have we seen the last dollar spike? It was HSBC who had the brainwave:
David Bloom and Daragh Mayer at HSBC note that if you strip out the dollar mega-rallies of the early 1980s and mid-1990s, regular dollar rallies tend to come in pretty regular sizes: 20 per cent in dollar-index terms, typically over no more than 12 months. But we’ve now seen a move of 25 per cent since last June alone.
Here's HSBC themselves, injecting a bit of common sense:re
Monetary policy divergence has clearly been a key driver to the shift in exchange rates, and offers a clear rationale for the movements we have already seen. But much of it is in the price. There may be a debate over the timing of the first Fed hike, but the market generally accepts that it will happen this year, and that rates will move up only slowly thereafter. One argument is the USD will continue to rise because US interest rates will rise a lot more than the market expects. Our view on this line of thinking is: if you think you know what is going to happen in the interest rate markets why are you trading the USD? Just trade the interest rates market instead. In Europe, the ECB has laid out its plan for QE so they are effectively on auto-pilot. In Japan, the ‘shock and awe’ of QE has long since passed. The drama offered by policy divergence has already run its course. The USD rally will stall as the market demands “tell me something I don’t know”.
Seems a sensible position to take. Now only if sensible positions made a profit!

The American Conservative - how Bobby Jindal wrecked Louisiana. And with the universities and hospitals all closed, and the state bankrupt, the white-ass Jesus freaks will proudly vote for him again. Cos universities are for liberals and homosexuals, and hospitals are for negroes, so destroying them is good for America!

i09 - could the death star destroy a planet? They say no, because the energy required to blow up a planet equals an amount of energy equal to a week's worth of total solar output. I say, they should just put Bobby Jindal in charge.

* - "Alphabits" is a reference to this:

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