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Monday, February 9, 2015

Two completely different perspectives on miners


It is good to look at both the daily and the weekly charts, much as it confuses me.

GDX daily:




Looks toppy, though the big volume on the down day Friday is vaguely hopeful. And there have been big red volume bars that neevertheless haven't managed to drive the miners down. But you and I know that the gold miners' pop is nearly over, and we could theoretically have seen all the gains we're going to see til the June pop, right?

But:


The weekly chart just shows a sedate consolidation, between the short-term EMA and the longer-term SMA. MACD is still fine and RSI is still over 50. And volume is still good.

So should we be bullish or bearish miners? Which is it?

Well, can we get a clue from the gold chart?



This chart really does look broken on that Friday collapse. And after all, if my theory is right that gold's price has recently been driven by various pair trades, and those paired thingies (TLT, USD, short oil) are now breaking down, then that should be it for gold, no?

Yabut:


On the weekly chart, gold simply banged its head on the top Bollinger and then settled down to its short EMA, where the October pivot should give it some support. It's really not as bad a chart on the weekly.

So, which is it?

I've got no clue, really.


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