Thursday, February 19, 2015

Planning the future for gold: 2015 Indian monsoon outlook

With the caveat that we're far too early in the year for this to have any value whatsoever beyond calming down the perpetual worrying of the Indian farmers:

Economic Times - it's raining men happiness: El Nino unlikely. Also,

Business Standard - better chance of a normal monsoon this year. Quote:
The Australian Weather Bureau's latest forecast is that international models surveyed by it indicate tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (a critical indicator of El Niño) are likely to be within the neutral range for at least the next three months. This is a big positive for India, as data for 1880 to 2005, compiled by private weather forecaster Skymet, show 90 per cent of all evolving El Niño years have led to below-normal rainfall, with 65 per cent of these resulting in drought. In the past decade, 2002, 2004 and 2009 were drought years due to El Niño emergence.

“All global weather models as of now are showing that El Niño might remain neutral during the Indian monsoon,” confirmed D S Pai, director of India Meteorological Department’s long-range forecast division, told Business Standard.

He cautioned it was too early for a firm prediction, as the monsoon is affected by other weather phenomena, too. IMD usually issues its first official forecast for the southwest monsoon in April, revising this in June.
Which is good, because rainfall is necessary for Indian farming, and Indian farming is a huge part of their economy, and Indian farmers having more money and the Indian economy doing well mean more gold demand.

If you believe in that whole lie about supply and demand, right Cookie?

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