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Wednesday, February 25, 2015

GDX and the SMA(50) is interesting


I know I just said "sell before PDAC", but this really is interesting:




So what this chart says is:

1) In late November, GDX got turned back exactly at the SMA(50), and printed a higher low.

2) In early December, GDX got back up to the SMA(50), but got forced down and printed a lower low, but still higher than the low of early November. This was tax loss selling season, remember.

3) At the end of December, after printing a pennant and then tightening up its range right below the SMA(50), it finally broke through. Weird how often the third time is different, eh? And then, after the breakthrough, it sailed up for a month and we all made money.

4) And now, the GDX has spent a week trying not to fall below the SMA(50).

It's better to try to interpret this in context, so here's context up the wazoo for ya:



GLD is below its SMA(50), which makes GDX's position above the SMA(50) interesting. Also, GLD's price looks to be at the bottom of an ascending channel that started in early November, more or less, kinda.

And then there's my patented chart that still nobody else is bothering to pay attention to:


Ex-USD, gold itself is still sitting on its SMA(50). Just like the miners ETF. And it's retraced 50% of the advance from Christmas.

These are the charts you'll have to watch if you really think it's a good idea to buy, not sell, at PDAC.

Personally I'd wait for a conclusive break upward before getting involved with this crap again.


1 comment:

  1. As that Fuckhead blogger that used to write the drivel at Vancouver Venture used to point out that one would have sold by now and waited for the July-Sept. run next in this sector.

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