Monday, February 23, 2015

And as for US markets

Here's the US market charts I'm watching:

IWM is something Whitey's enjoyed selling, so it's a bit of a risk-off tell. It seems to be rolling over.

Whitey's really loved selling regional banks: this and NSC are what I watch to see if the fat money is in sell mode. It's looking weak and maybe Whitey is selling cos he thinks this chart can't break through.

Cuz Whitey thinks past trends continue indefinitely. Which is wrong, but he thinks that and it's his selling that matters to the price, not fundamentals.

QQQ looks great, but I'd feel better if it wasn't just driven by Apple. Then again, if you own QQQ you own Apple, so why whine about it?

But man I wouldn't buy this at an RSI>70. Thankfully I already own it and can let what position I do have keep running, or not.

If I get definitive proof of a rollover, I can still sell this at a profit.

SPY has sorta broken through, but a weak advance like this month's could easily roll over at RSI=63.

Then again, SPY has a way to go to catch up to its 2014 trend.

Transports haven't broken to the upside, so the Dow Theory signal is presently telling Whitey to sell the US. And it'll continue to tell him that til it breaks to the upside.

I wonder how much the LA port strike factors into $TRAN weakness? Cos it certainly shouldn't suffer from low oil prices, should it?

None of this makes me want to buy US right now, but I certainly don't want to sell. Then again, maybe everyone else on the amateur end of the market feels like that too, which means I'm on the wrong side of the boat.

More charts in the next post.

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