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Friday, January 16, 2015

Some morning reading

Gold hit $1275. Where's Jeffrey Currie? He still works at Goldman, doesn't he?

Here's the news:

Calculated Risk - OMG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION COLLAPSED. OMG this sounds horbl!:
At 106.5 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in December was 4.9 percent above its level of a year earlier. For the fourth quarter of 2014 as a whole, industrial production advanced at an annual rate of 5.6 percent, with widespread gains among the major market and industry groups.
Yes! Let's concentrate on a +/-50% accuracy single-digit reading for December! Sell! Sell! - the myth of the German saver. Germans are big on racial mythology, aren't they? Quote:
Despite the flood of stories suggesting Germans are a very special breed of people who invest their money in a particularly conservative fashion, it turns out the Germans are basically regular people who invest their money in pretty much the same fashion as the average European.
But don't tell Germans they're nobody special or you won't be able to predict what they'll do next.

Reuters - Chinese funds linked to copper dive. Seems the Mongol horde has been raiding the commodity space for a while now.

Conversable Economist - don't expect oil to bounce back, cheese. Quote:
First, investments in energy production, once they are made, often have some element of sunk costs. Lots of investments in greater supply of energy have been made in the last 10 years or so as oil prices rose rapidly--not just investments in oil, but in many forms of energy production including renewables, and in forms of energy conservation like cars that get higher gas mileage. Those investments are now in place, and remain in place even when oil prices fall. This is part of the reason why the fall in oil prices that happened back in the 1980s persisted for about 15 years: past investments were locked-in. It suggests that the current drop in oil prices may persist for a few years, too.
I for one welcome our new low oil price regime.


  1. In fact they're pretty predictable. Historically speaking, to prove they're special they tend to annex the sudetenland.

    1. It's usually Alsace first. They only did the Sudetenland once, they've marched through Alsace every 20 years. In fact they're overdue.

    2. And relevant to this: