Saturday, January 31, 2015

So here's some weekend news

Here's some weekend news, including several links especially for new commenter Tim Harrington:

Calculated Risk - real Q4 GDP at 2.6%. However, PCE increased at 4.3%, and there was even a 0.3% decline in prices paid which means an improvement in real income. The damage was done by a 1% drop in trade (which you already expected, right?) and yet another drop in government spending, which conservatives want anyway so what's the problem?

Calculated Risk - there is no problem. Quote:
Residential investment (RI) increased at a 4.1% annual rate in Q4. Equipment investment decreased at a 1.9% annual rate, and investment in non-residential structures increased at a 2.6% annual rate. On a 3 quarter trailing average basis, RI is moving up (red), equipment is moving sideways (green), and nonresidential structures dipped a little (blue).

Note: Nonresidential investment in structures typically lags the recovery, however investment in energy and power provided a boost early in this recovery.

I expect investment to be solid going forward (except for energy and power), and for the economy to grow at a solid pace in 2015.
So quit piddling your frilly pink panties and buy the damn S&P 500.

Bespoke - most negative revisions since the depths of the financial crisis. However, importantly, you and the rest of the market already bloody well know this and have already sold everything off accordingly, so:
the spread so far this season is much worse than any of the other negative spreads seen in recent years. It looks like either companies were caught way off guard or they are throwing in the towel on 2015. Looking on the bright side, though, this gives the market a big opportunity to surprise on the upside.
Or, of course, you could just keep piddling your frilly pink panties as the market corrects a whole damn 5% lower from here. Oh god won't that be horrible! A 5% loss! Sorta like owning B2Gold for a whole day!

Bonddad - just how strong is the US economy? Well, how's about we check the data instead of the clickbait crap from Business Insider? Household debt to GDP continues to go down, consumer spending has constantly been improving, gross private domestic investment has constantly been improving, the four primary coincident indicators remain positive, and the LEIs are still positive. There is nothing here to worry about. Nothing.

Calculated Risk - restaurant performance index is awesome. It's only a minor indicator of discretionary spending, but it's the best it's been since 2004, and so confirms everything else above. Panties, frilly pink (n): quit piddling them.

Reuters - Mastercard beats expectations as customers spend more. But I would like to point out that MA is down 2% since AXP reported their earnings. Why? Because Wall Street Whitey keeps looking for reasons to sell. He's forgotten that MA has gone up by 270% over the past 5 years, which is triple the return of SPY and far better than AXP. Probably because Whitey pays too much attention to bullshit hype from Ray Dalio, who has significantly underperformed the S&P 500 over the past 5 years, though of course he still gets to charge 2%/20% to all the suckers who let him throw their money down the fucking bottomless hole that is his fucking executive compensation.

And by the way, our swarthy deep-voiced investor friend with the supposedly-private RSS feed says the employment and credit growth data out of Japan suggest their economy is about to accelerate.

Reuters - EU wins Greek backing to extend sanctions. Contrary to the gloating Soviet-funded pro-Putin propaganda at Zerohedge,
According to Italy's foreign minister, Kotzias announced to the meeting: "I am not a Russian puppet."
which makes Kotzias a hundred times more principled than the insider-trading Soviet-funded son of a Bulgarian secret service agent who ran an article suggesting Greece was about to leave the EZ and join the Soviet sphere of influence. Who's a Russian puppet, Danny? That's right, you are! - consensus 2015 gold forecast is down. Yeah? And yet, how many of these guys predicted that gold would ding $1300 in January? I mean, I know I did, I know I told you all to buy, but apparently the LBMA doesn't consider me to be a significant enough "gold analyst" to include me in their little survey. So I guess we can just ignore them.

Geekologie - gay dinosaur erotica available on Amazon. With titles like Gay T-Rex Law Firm Executive Boner and My Billionaire Triceratops Craves Gay Ass, you've just got to admit you've now heard every single utterable sequence of words in English and will have to learn a new language before you can continue the adventure of life. Note to all you banksters reading my blog: feel free to click through, the link is certainly safe for work!


  1. Hahaha - thank you, in fairness there is indeed some pretty decent numbers coming out.

    The whole deflation thing is still a problem mind you, the latest GDP nominal was higher than real, which I am told is a deflationary sign. Or rather, a sign of dropping inflation. Hardly news I guess, possibly also good for the consumer too.

    Also, GDP headline disappointed even though the consumer went out and spent a hell of a lot... This still concerns me, the consumer has not increased spending by more than this QoQ since 2006, yet headline GDP disappoints. That said, you would expect a lagging effect of consumer spending increase via the drop of gas - maybe this is just the start?

    In any case, I guess bullish consumer stocks, bearish materials/energy continues to be a theme to make money.

  2. On the subject of gay dinosaurs, i happened to catch a re-run of a Big Bang Theory episode 2 nights ago with George Takei camping it up in a guest appearance. Damn that dude has aged well. So i checked and he's 77 and he's some sort of Twitter Icon, too. Things i didn't know. Good for George.

  3. Also - not to keep going on - but the Weekly Jobless Claims number surprised me to the upside - or rather, I expected a larger number than the one reported.

    Turns out the latest weekly number was the shortened week - with Martin Luther King day, so not a real release. Your boy over at Calculated Risk did not mention this, but it does matter.

  4. You had me at Space Raptor Butt Invasion.