Thursday, January 22, 2015

Poll's progress

I direct your attention again to the poll on the right of the webpage.

As of now, exactly half of respondents think that gold will end the year over $1400. As well, the vast majority seem certain that gold will end the year over $1300.

Why is this? Are people just getting lulled into overconfidence by January's action in gold? Or do you people think the deflationary spiral will worsen, or negative real yields are a permanent thing, or the US dollar will reverse and go back down?

Or is it just that my blog is followed by insane goldbugs, despite my best efforts to the contrary?

Or have I really been that persuasive in my commentary?

Frankly, even though I think gold will continue to move strongly in February, I'm not sure at all about what happens the rest of the year: in fact, I think the deflation hysteria will evaporate soon, the way it always has these past few years. TLT is near the upper limit of its long-term trend channel, so it's probably about to reverse and go down.

Anyway, poll closes in a few days so get your votes in if you haven't already. Vote early! Vote often!

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