Friday, January 30, 2015

Peter Brandt still doesn't impress me

Peter Brandt - major eruption ready to occur in global markets. Euch. Look how he starts off:

I have for several weeks and months maintained that the NYSE Composite will be the bell-weather for U.S. stocks. It has the clearest chart picture. The NYSE Composite is forming a near textbook continuation H&S pattern. The key upside levels are indicated on the chart. An upside penetration of these chart levels will usher in a sustained advance in U.S. equity prices.


It should be noted that this exact price configuration has produced giant price advances in the past. Charts of Gold and the DJIA are shown as examples.


OK, right there he's already made four mistakes.

1. The NYSE Composite (nowadays, at least) includes a large number of non-equities. It is its own beast, part bond and part equity. Don't try comparing it to things, you'll get burned.

2. He then compared a 6-month consolidation in the NYSE with an eighteen year consolidation in the DJIA.

3. Oh and the 18-year Dow consolidation had a fundamental basis that the 6-month NYSE consolidation doesn't.

4. And anyway, the H&S is not a continuation pattern.

I like the other things he says in the post, and can see a fundamental basis for thinking them, but as far as TA goes this just makes me shake my head.

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