Friday, December 26, 2014

Yet again with the is Brent Cook also Otto Rock thing

Well, here's the blog stats, and it's come up again:

I don't think IKN has slagged the Caseys for a few weeks now, and I haven't heard Cookie slag the Caseys ever, so I don't know what this is all about. Someone cleaning up their email inbox, maybe?

So, again, here you go with the answer.

And frankly, I'm a bit pissed that nobody's trying to figure out who I am.

I mean, hell! For all you know, I'm Daniela Cambone! Maybe this blog is my secret emotional outlet!

Friday video: it's the twelve videos of Christmas, so what do you expect?

I don't like this style of music, but the song works well:

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

A last bit of news for the year

A bit more stuff to read, probably best to leave til after Xmas:

New Deal Demoncrat - more proof of a consumer lift-off due to cheap gas. Various economic data for you to ignore.

Calculated Risk - ten economic questions for 2015. For those of you who care more about economics than about Republican and Russian disinformation.

BI - what we're piddling our panties about now. They say it's a "troublesome commonality" that asset correlation spikes to 1 whenever there's a selloff. I respond that I got used to this during the Euro crisis, and now I see it is a marvellous opportunity to leverage up on the cheap. Now, the hedge funds should be doing this too, because it's free beta, and beta is supposed to arb out. So why aren't they doing this? Maybe because hedge funds are run by clowns who are always piddling themselves in every 2% drop, thus driving correlation to 1?

Oh, and dear Sam Ro: you're still a clueless idiot. - GDXJ rebalancing annihilates these 5 juniors. Premier and Asanko were two of the five to be so clobbered. - Mickey Fulp on why it's so great for junior gold miners to suck™. He thinks there are some deadly deals available. Hey, if gold's not going to drop to $1050, then why not load up, right? He even gives us testable predictions:
Though the current chart is incomplete, I will make some short-term predictions based on previous bear market years:

- The Toronto Venture Exchange Index low for 2014 was likely hit on Tuesday, December 16.
- The market will probably recover a bit or flat line thru the end of this year.
- There should be a significant rally in junior resource stocks in the early days of 2015.
I love testable predictions, Mickey! Most people in the blogosphere give me nonsense pulled out their ass, but you give me testable predictions! What a great Xmas present! Thank you!

Special Xmas eve drinking video: Shane MacGowan and Kirsty MacColl wish you a happy Xmas

You scumbag, you maggot, you cheap lousy faggot, happy Christmas yer arsehole, thank God it's our last:

True story: The Chieftains once drank the Pogues under the table like a bunch of little boys. Well, at least once, and purposefully.

Another true story: Shane MacGowan's still not dead yet. Seriously. The number of times the fecker almost died and he's still around. I remember back when Melody Maker reported he'd fallen out of the band van (drunk) and was in hospital in a coma from a skull fracture. Fecker seems to have walked that off pretty well. Eat your heart out Keith Richards yer feckin' amateur.

Another true story: I'm going to beat both the feckers today. Happy Christmas yer arseholes, I've got me a liquor cellar to empty.

MATH FOR BLOGGERS: highschool math revision for Gary Tanashian

Sigh.... I've left him alone for years but I just have to weigh in here.

NFTRH - math fail. Gary Tanashian needs some revision in highschool-level math.

This is going to take a while, but I enjoy math tutoring and I've got nothing else to do, so...

The twelve videos of Christmas: now with more Don't You Worry Child

This one's from America's Got Talent, they should have let these guys do the whole song:

Monday, December 22, 2014

HAS THE EARTH EVER RAN OUT OF A NATURAL RESOURCE? Mickey Fulp's answer will shock you! - has the earth ever ran out of a natural resource?

This was an old "Mercenary Musing" by Mickey Fulp, and I just came across it again today.

He notes there is one natural resource that the earth did run out of, in modern history.

The answer will shock you!

No really, it's actually one of Mickey's best articles ever. Go read it.

JEFFREY CURRIE COPS OUT - I guess we can just ignore him from now on

Bloomberg - blah blah, but more importantly Jeffrey Currie cops out on his $1050 gold call.

So back on December 3rd, I reminded Jeffrey Currie from Goldman Sachs that his call for $1050 gold by end 2014, reiterated several times, had not come to fruition.

What does he do? He runs over to Bloomie as fast as his little girl footsies can carry him, to beg for an interview so he can restate his call - but for end 2015 instead.

“The stronger U.S. economy and the ability for the Fed to be able to begin to pursue a less accommodative monetary policy are the real drivers of gold,” Goldman’s Currie said Dec. 9. “Gold will likely continue to slowly grind lower next year,” he said, reiterating a forecast for prices to drop to $1,050 in 12 months.
Dear Debarati Roy at Bloomberg: when someone repeatedly makes a prediction within a set timeframe, and then it happens not to pass, and then he moves out his target date another 12 months, the word you are supposed to use is not "reiterate".

Terms that should be used instead include "obfuscates", "moves the goalposts", or the ever-popular "pulls out of his ass like every other bullshit prediction he's ever made".

So the question remains, Jeffy: why should we give any weight to your prediction for $1050 by end 2015? You predicted it for end 2014 and you got it wrong.

It's probably because you have no idea what actually moves the price of gold. I mean, if you did know, how could you have gotten your 2014 prediction so disastrously wrong?

OT, about not having a jerb

Off-topically, since losing my jerb a few weeks ago I've noticed something interesting.

While sleeping, I now have dreams. No really, this is weirding me out because I can't remember the last time I dreamt while sleeping - it must have been years ago. But now I've started dreaming constantly at night.

One explanation might be that, since I'm trying to puzzle out what to do next with my life, my brain has decided to try to solve the problem for me at night while I sleep. The theory is that you dream more when you have to do a lot of mental adaptation to overcome something difficult. Even if the dream doesn't seem to be related to your problem at all, new neuronal connections are being formed by the narrative of the dream, which makes it easier for your waking mind to overcome the new obstacle.

I didn't have any obstacles in my job - I had pretty much mastered the work, and the only problem I had was insane deadlines. So maybe that's why I wasn't dreaming then, and now I do because I'm at an impasse for what to do next in my life.

Another explanation might be simply that I was getting insufficient sleep before, so I was never managing to get all the way to REM sleep. Now I've made up my sleep deficit so I'm getting into REM after just a couple hours.

And yet another might be the booze. Especially the tequila.

No, Mila Kunis hasn't shown up in my dreams yet, but Hayden Panetierre is doing a good job filling in.

The twelve videos of Christmas: Don't You Worry Child

Here's the Swedish House Mafia live:

Sunday, December 21, 2014

If you want a breakout in gold....

Here's gold ex-USD:

If gold divided by UDN goes above 51 or so, it might then go up to 56 or so.

That'd be a 10% gain, times whatever gain you see in the US dollar over the same time.

Til then, gold sucks.

Some more weekend reading

Here's some weekend news for you:

BI - here were last year's 2014 analyst S&P 500 predictions. Every one of these clowns grossly undershot where we are today, except Tom Lee. Here's what he said:
Historically, bull markets lasting at least 4 years (since 1897) have only ended with a recession—that is, they typically do not end just because "everyone is too bullish."
He was right and everyone else is wrong, so we should probably pay attention to what he said.

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. More foreign weakness and US strength.

Calculated Risk - ATA trucking index up 3.5% in November. Thus the US economy is still growing.

Brett Steenbarger - is the market rally broadening or narrowing? What a dick, eh? I'll tell you what he says: it's broadening. Quote:
Given the expanding relative strength from the smaller caps, this does not appear to be a weakening market--which suggests that the rally should have legs.
Dickish move to put a question in the headline though.

Bloomberg - there's $1.7 trillion locked out of China's rally. Eugh - ASHR is limited in share creation because of foreigner buying quotas, so don't buy it: it's probably at a massive premium to NAV. I guess all you can do is buy the FXI-based crappy ETFs and hope for a fraction of the return; this really is a rally for Chinese people only.

Bloomberg - China purging foreign technology. I just finished Glenn Greenwald's No Place to Hide, and it notes that the NSA was stopping all server equipment and routers for export at the border to put bugs in them. So this isn't just some nationalist move by the Chinese. - bullish reversal in miners. Jojo notes GDXJ popped 50% in 2 months last year. I'll point out that the move came on a $200 pop in gold. It also came on a pop in gold ex-USD. If you want another pop like that this year in the miners, you'll need to see a pop in gold itself.

The twelve videos of Christmas: Don't You Worry Child

Here's the guy who originally sang it: