Saturday, November 15, 2014

Another best-of blast from the past: Stephen Hawking's birthday party

Again with a best-of post from the past, here's one from 3 Dec 2013.



Metro.co.uk - Stephen Hawking has invited time travellers to his birthday party in 2009. Apparently nobody showed up, so Hawking says this is conclusive proof that time travel is not possible.

I'm sorry, but there are alternate explanations.


#1: Ur doin it rong.

Assume time travel is invented in the 28th century. Well, of course no time travellers went to Stephen Hawking's 2009 birthday party! Time travel hadn't yet been invented in 2009! Therefore, in 2009, there is not one person in the world who has made the decision to travel back in time, so Hawking's birthday party is a bust.

Perhaps after time travel has been invented, we'll all of a sudden remember stories of how time travellers went to Stephen Hawking's birthday party in 2009. Suddenly we'll find an ancient photograph of Hawking's party, with him hanging out with John Titor, Captain Janeway, and Tom Baker.


#2: Y u so want time travellers?

I wouldn't invite time travellers to meet me if I were you. You never know: maybe your grandson becomes the next MegaHitler, so someone decides to go back in time and assassinate you to save the lives of billions. Maybe someone invents a superbomb capable of destroying the galaxy, and it's all because of some stupid equation that only Hawking could possibly have solved.

So if I were you, buddy, I'd just lay low. Quit being a fucking temporal heatscore.


#3: dude, ur teh lamez

If I were a time traveller, why the hell would I want to go back in time to visit Stephen Hawking? He's just some math dude in a wheelchair.

If I were going back in time, I'd want to go to Lindsay Lohan's Sweet 16 party. She was cute back then, and we now know she's crazy enough that I might get lucky.

In her pooper.


Summary

Sorry, Prof. Hawking, but there are all sorts of reasons time travellers may haven't have been wented to your birthday party. Some of them have to do with the weird time paradoxy stuff, but others simply reflect badly on you.


AMAZING ONE-OF-A-KIND INVESTMENT STRATEGY: you won't believe what it is!


You won't believe the one-of-a-kind investment strategy I've stumbled across! It's guaranteed to make millions!

After the cut, of course. Because just like those media whores Barry Ritholtz and Josh Brown, I'd also rather maximize my click-throughs instead of serving my readership.

Friday, November 14, 2014

A silly SMBC


From SMBC, this one is funny:


Some week-ending news


Hasn't been much to write about, til today and the gold resurgence.

Speaking of which - you can tell gold has bottomed when that clown Ritholtz is repeating anti-gold links in his morning roundup every single day.

Here's the news:

Calculated Risk - awesome consumer sentiment. Look at this chart:


And as you can see above, consumer sentiment can still rise a hell of a long way further before it reaches 1997 levels. And that's why I keep saying we're in a secular bull market until proven otherwise.


Bespoke - how is Under Armour like Chipotle? Two different companies, yet their stocks move exactly in tandem. Why? The Bespoke guys will let you in on a secret about the market:
[...] it is worth thinking about why there's any relationship between the two names at all. The similar moves off of earnings are certainly a factor, but even more interesting is how each responds to broad market conditions. Both are revenue-growing darlings of the momentum trade. Their marginal investor is similar, and they trade in a very similar way every day. So while the apparent correlation isn't actually a real relationship, we do think that it's worth remembering that no stock trades in isolation: they're all exposed to the broad market, and stocks that are held by similar investor types often react to broad market conditions in similar ways.
In other words, they appear on the exact same checklist at the hedge funds. That is all it is, and that is why fundamentals never matter as much as anyone thinks they do.


IKN - 5-year chart of LME copper stocks. The 3 people here who don't already follow IKN should look at this:


Cos, limited data set that it is, the chart nevertheless shows no region where copper stocks remained constant for 6 months before resuming a previous trend. So this is likely the turning point right now, whatever that means.

Can you think of any reason why a country still modernizing and growing at 7% per year would stop buying copper, anyone? Hm?


CNN - ISIS announces new currency. Behold, goldbugs!:
ISIS is planning to mint its own currency in gold, silver and copper, the group said Thursday.

Its aim is to stay away from the "tyrant's financial system," ISIS said in a statement. It said it would issue another statement to explain the new currency's exchange rate, and where it can be found.

The currency will include seven coins: two gold, three silver and two copper.

The move is "purely dedicated to God" and will remove Muslims from the "global economic system that is based on satanic usury," ISIS said.
Hooray! Now when we buy gold and silver we can say we're fighting Satan! I can't wait til Kitco has these for sale on their website! So get your thumb out your ass, Alex, and get us some ISIS gold and silver coins to buy!

You have to admit that gold and silver coins look fuckin' sexy:


Any of those White-ass crackers in Wall Street wanna speculate on how much the price of gold and silver change with a few hundred million dollars' worth of demand coming onstream the minute they figure out how to mint coins?


How streamers bounce back and how they don't


This is how the chart of an oversold streamer bounces back when they have a good business model and brilliant leadership:




And this is how the chart of an oversold streamer never bounces back because it's become common knowledge that they have a disastrous business model and overconfident, bumbling leadership:


Any questions?


Gold still hasn't broken down ex-US


Check out the last candle:


Here we are at the end of yet another week, and gold still hasn't broken down ex-USD.


The thing about USD long....


The vuvuzela of junior mining - USD long is now a very crowded trade. Wherein he theoretically top-ticks the termination of the USD upmove. Guy should be a currency trader. But that's not the thing.

The thing is, like I've been constantly mentioning, and like I've been showing in charts over and over again, the move in gold has been entirely a USD-driven move.

And thus you get big whoop-ass PM facerippers like today:

(I know silver isn't gold. But whitey thinks it is, and whitey plays silver as if it's leveraged gold, and so it moves faster.)

Which isn't the interesting bit. The interesting bit is going to be to watch and see whether any stupid Americans had a short-the-miners strategy as part of their long-USD strategy.

Because it's wrong-headed. You short miners when gold is going down ex-USD.

It's also wrong-headed because the junior mining world is a tiny kiddie-pool and not even remotely liquid enough to carry a large enough short-USD position.


Friday videos: Goldfrapp's "Strict Machine"


Cool kaleidoscopic madness:




Wonderful electric....

Gold opex on the way again


I see gold's been barfing again.

So, just as a reminder, Dec gold (OGZ14) settlement is 24 Nov 2014.

Let's see if the traders can force it down to $1050, or if there's simply too much inertia pushing back the other way.


Thursday, November 13, 2014

Krugman on the "it's all fake" crowd


Sometimes synchronicity rears its head and makes me believe in a higher power:

The Krugginator - on the "it's all fake" people who complain about "unbelievable degrees of shenanigans going on with out of control people in high places who believe, or would have us believe, that it is all as simple as shifting things on balance sheets to get them out of the light of day, promoting risk taking and letting an ‘organic’ economy finally take root."

OK in reality Krugman is talking about that clown Peter Singer who was whining about hyperinflation in the Hamptons and how it's an indicator of hyperinflation about to burst forth in the US economy, and not about some blogger.

Even still, quote:

I’d suggest that when Singer talks about a debased currency and fake economic growth, that’s because he really believes that we have a debased currency and fake growth, not as a metaphor for some other kind of economic deception.

And where is that perception coming from? I still think that Brad DeLong’s analysis has it right. What we’re looking at here are traders who looked at historical correlations — while disdaining macroeconomics — and concluded that low interest rates would surely rise back to historical norms. When those rates did no such thing, they looked at the Fed’s intervention — and to them it looked like a big trader distorting markets, London Whale-style, by making huge bets that would surely go bad. So they sat back and waited for the collapse.

And the collapse keeps not happening, because the Fed is not a rogue trader and historical norms for interest rates aren’t relevant in a persistently depressed, deleveraging economy. But rather than acknowledge that they were wrong, let alone that, er, Keynesian macroeconomics has something to teach them, these guys lash out: It’s all fake!

I still await the "massive repudiation of debt as a dishonest system comes apart at the seams".


Vix is strirring again


Vix:



$TRAN is still moving up, though it seems to have lost momentum, and HYG's chart is rolling over from a lower high.

So I guess the market wants to peter out for a bit.

Let's see what the Josh Brown and his doomer buddies reach for as a reason this time.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Speaking of Cressida Cauty, whatever happened to Jimmy Cauty?


I'm amazed that my "whatever happened to Cressida Cauty" post still gets quite a lot of hits. I guess now that she's a famous biomedical researcher curing cancer, people have suddenly found a new appreciation for Disco 2000.

Anyway, not that he's contributing in any way to saving lives, but what is Jimmy Cauty of the KLF up to nowadays?

well, still being Jimmy Cauty, apparently:

London Evening Standard - Jimmy Cauty is the jam jar rebel. Quote:

For a couple of hundred pounds, visitors to Jimmy Cauty's new exhibition can buy miniature sculptures of the attack on Charles and Camilla during the student loans demonstration, the death of news vendor Ian Tomlinson at the G20 protests, or of Take That "getting their heads kicked in" by police at the Brit awards.

Yup, he's still working at chaos magic after all this time:

The specific spur for this exhibition was a visit to Tesco, some months ago, where "there were no staff but all these young people were just patiently queuing for those robot tills, instead of grabbing stuff and running away". It made him think the younger generation was docile, quiescent, conformist.

And what's the future? Is the KLF really over and done with like Cressida says?

He and Drummond are in regular contact, dealing with the still-felt ripples of the KLF/K Foundation.

"We are working on the idea of Lady Gaga joining us for a world tour, and writing and producing an album for her," says Cauty. "But she doesn't know about it yet."

Oh Christ. Genius. Take a washed-up attention-addict and graft her onto the KLF. My God. She'd go for it too, and it would resurrect her career and give her new cred, and it'd still be 100% KLF.

I'm sad that while I also have this level of evil genius, I've never had a #1 hit single so I just can't accomplish this sort of stuff. How can I help immanentize the eschatoon, Jimmy?

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

An extra-special music video


For nobody in particular, here's Kenny Rogers:



Cuz ya gotta know when to walk away, and know when to run. :-)

Ron Paul finds a new friend in the Islamic Caliphate


This is cute:

The Daily Fail - Islamic Caliphate plans to bring back gold and silver coins as currency. Wow. Yeah, Zerohedge and Business Insider already reprinted the story so you know it's got a stink to it, but even still:

While ISIS has yet to confirm the introduction of its currency, social media is awash with claims that leading religious figures announced the plans during recent prayers in Mosul and Nineveh province.

It is believed the terror outfit wants to use the independent currency in areas it controls as part of its war on the West.

The currency, which could be introduced within the next few weeks, will involve changing from regular dinars and Lira to golden dinars and silver dirhams.

Last month, it emerged that ISIS, which also goes by the name Islamic State, is raking in money at a remarkable rate - earning about $1million a day from black market oil sales alone.

The group extracts oil from territory captured across Syria and Iraq, and sells it to smugglers.

David Cohen, who leads the Treasury Department's effort to undermine the Islamic State's finances, said the extremists also get several million dollars a month from wealthy donors, extortion rackets and other criminal activities, such as robbing banks.

Technically, selling currency to buy gold and silver is a type of physical demand. So I guess, technically, we just witnessed the birth of a new several-million-dollar-per-day buyer of gold and silver.

Well, now Ron Paul is stuck in the unenvious position of supporting a bunch of lunatic murderers in their quest to establish a metals-backed currency.

Tuesday news


Not much reason to get into the news: it seems like everything is set-and-forget. But here's just a couple items:

Liz Ann Sonders - to da moon Alice! Everything is fine so quit worrying and buy the S&P 500.

Mineweb - I!Am!Gold! to shrink its executive ranks by half. Oh noes! Teh poor executives! Thankfully, Fire Steve Letwin and his chinstrap & muscle shirt will stay on. As IKN notes, he'll continue receiving bonuses and incentives, because it's so hard in the mining industry to find and retain a CEO who can reliably generate a stock price drop of over 50% a year, year after year.

FT beyond brics - China growth to slow. To me it's obvious that as an economy modernizes its baseline growth rate should slow. But apparently Louis Kuijs thinks it's remarkable or something. I dunno how these people get jobs.


Monday, November 10, 2014

STEPHEN HARPER HOLDING A KITTEN: what does he know and why won't he tell us?


I'm sorry, I just think this photo is fucking hilarious:


I think Stephen Harper just spoiled kitten photos for me forever.

And you thought REPUBLICANS lived in an echo-chamber of insanity!


A smart leader can still turn into a dumb-ass if he's surrounded by nothing but ignorant, clownish toadies who do nothing but kiss up to him all day.

Even if Putin was once smart, I think we now have proof that he's now fallen into an unarrestable spiral of stupidity because everyone with enough braincells to have ever been of use to him has either fled the country, gone into political exile, or been killed off, leaving Pooty-poot locked in an echo-chamber of insanity.

"But things aren't that bad", you say! "Oh no!" you say, "it's not as if he's surrounded by sycophants who suggest insane things like giving vials of Putin's sperm to women in order to breed a race of supermen!"

Au contraire, mon ami!

Metro UK - Russian lawmaker suggests giving vials of Putin's sperm to women in order to breed a race of supermen.

"Ha ha, very funny," you say, "that's not really what the article says!"

Au contraire, mon ami:

One might argue that one Vladimir Putin is quite enough already.

But Yelena Borisovna Mizoulina disagrees. In fact, if the Russian lawmaker has her way, we can expect a younger generation of bare-chested, horse-riding Russians with a penchant for spy thrillers and pistachio ice-cream.

Mrs Mizoulina has suggested giving Russian women the sperm of President Vladimir Putin in a bid to create a new ‘military and political elite’.

The Chairwoman of the Parliamentary Commission on women’s affairs, children and family said that giving the president’s sperm to women would improve the greatness of Russia and improve patriotism, Trust reports.

"Ha ha no really," you say, "the essence of her proposition couldn't possibly be that simple!"

Au contraire, mon ami:

‘The essence of my proposition is simple,’ she said.

Every citizen of Russia will receive by mail the genetic material of the president, to get pregnant from him and have a baby. These mothers will receive a special allowance from the state.

Children born from the Russian president in the future will form the military and political elite of the state.

Every citizen? Even dudes? That sounds kinda gay, doesn't it? What is a single male supposed to do with Pooty's "genetic material"? Smear it all over his chest or something?

"ha ha but seriously," you say, "this woman isn't a typical Russian."

Au contraire, mon ami:

If Ms Mizoulina’s suggestion sounds a bit odd, it’s worth noting that the same woman suggested exiling all Russian Jews

Yup, that's a typical Russian: a neo-Nazi anti-Semite.

But not everyone in Russia is buying this latest bizarre idea, are they?

Not everyone in Russia is buying the latest bizarre idea, however.

Mikhail Klikishin told the New York Observer the story is ‘total BS from Ukrainian yellow press.’

<cough cough> Mikhail Klikishin? That's a Ukrainian name. You know you're a traitor to your people, right?

Ah, Russia. Their news is always so hilariously funny, until you realize they still have nukes.


Gold in Euros: no breakdown


I'm going to keep screaming this from the wasteland until someone pays attention:


Gold still has not broken down in Euros. Until gold breaks down in Euros, gold is not broken.

All it's doing right now is dropping against the American dollar, and Americans don't buy gold anyway so who the hell cares.


Krugman, hyperinflation in the Hamptons, Veblen goods and secular stagnation


The Krugginator - on the use of ridicule. Wherein, among other things, he ridicules the poor rich fellow Paul Singer who says yes indeed there is hyperinflation - in the Hamptons:

Washington Post - poor billionaires suffer hyperinflation in the Hamptons.

Here's Krugman's take on the story:
Meanwhile, a quick hit. Matt O’Brien has a lot of fun with Paul Singer, a billionaire inflation truther who is sure that the books are cooked because of what he can see with his own eyes:

… check out London, Manhattan, Aspen and East Hampton real estate prices, as well as high-end art prices, to see what the leading edge of hyperinflation could look like
Hyperinflation in the Hamptons; hard to beat that for comedy, although Matt adds value with the Billionaires Price Index.

This is interesting, because Krugman loves talking about secular stagnation, particularly the endemic collapse in growth-environment interest rates and inability of advanced economies to generate inflation.

And I've been asserting that the answer is in Piketty, that there has been decreasing demand for the money that rentiers wish to rent out for income simply because the rentiers have been stealing an ever-larger share of capital for themselves.

So can you see why it's interesting?

It's interesting because, if the rentier/plutocrat class gets wealthier and wealthier, then you'd expect inflation to shift to the rentiers' section of the economy, and thus Veblen goods should see high inflation while the peasant/serf part of the economy sees none.

And a corollary of this is that Paul Singer has proven for us that the rentier/plutocrat class actually is stealing an ever-larger share of the economy at the expense of the peasantry. Which is even more interesting.


Sunday, November 9, 2014

Some sunday reading


Some things to read on a Sunday:

Ritholtz - hey, remember when he was piddling his panties while this blog was already calling it a new secular bull market? Better late than never, eh pissy-panties? Just watch out that you don't now turn into some fucking Kondratiev idiot with your "grand cycles" theory.

der Spargel - hey, remember Donetsk? Oh good, the breakaway republics have collapsed, with no economy, criminal gangs, and now the Cossacks are rising again. Hey Pooty, what's the difference between competence and incompetence?

der Spargel - hey, remember Golden Dawn? So finally the government is going to classify the Nazis as a criminal gang and wipe them out. Good.

der Spargel - hey, remember the Nicaragua Canal? I dunno if Ortega will want to follow through with this if it means mass protests against him.


"Inniment"?!?


Sigh... sometimes looking at my blog stats depresses me.


Someone from NJ searched for "america ebola inniment november 2014".

I'm sure it's cos he spent last night watching Fox News.

Well, at least now we know what type of people vote for Chris Christie.