Saturday, September 27, 2014

Postmodern Jukebox doing a vintage jazz cover of "Careless Whispers"

The title doesn't lie. Here's Postmodern Jukebox doing a vintage jazz cover of "Careless Whispers":

The Jesus and Mary Chain live at the Camden Ballroom in 1985. Your argument is invalid.

Holy shit, the internet really does have everything.

Here's the Jesus and Mary Chain playing live in 1985, at one of their "riot" shows.

Jim seems to kick and bash people in the front row about a hundred times here. And yet he pokes one dumb guy in Toronto with a microphone stand in 1987 and the police get involved. Fucking Toronto pussies.

Just Out of Reach
You Trip Me Up
Inside Me
In a Hole
The Living End
(then a riot)

Yup, six song set, that was them in 1985.

It's amazing to me that this video exists because I used to be on a J&MC fansite, over a decade ago, that prided itself on having literally every single bootleg that existed - and I never saw this. Seems this comes straight out of the Creation Records vault or something.

And here again is Daniel Richler's hilarious J&MC interview from the New Music in 1985, followed by (I'm not sure) some 2-minute interview on Dutch TV where for some reason it looks like Bobby brought a girl to make out with:

Hilarious "Joy Division were particularly awful, Joy Division were shit, Joy Division were fucking rubbish."

Quote from the comments section:

"Jim got told before the interview that the interviewer was a massive fan of Joy Division so he said negative things about them to annoy him."

Friday, September 26, 2014

Some news for Friday

I had more newsbits saved, but some of them were crap, so I whittled the reading down to these four:

Bespoke - chart notes. I found this chart most interesting:

It says that the S&P 500 isn't actually grossly overvalued. But hey, feel free to sell it down 200 points, guys.

New Deal Demoncrat - ha, 4.6% GDP, I told you so, I'm awesome. Go ahead and toot your horn.

FT beyond brics - blah blah commodities blah blah EMs. Note that Peru is an "industrious ant" with nothing to worry about, according to this guy. Cue IKN outrage in 3, 2, 1....

Mineweb - blah blah China blah blah iron ore. Here was the bit that sparked my interest:
Vale is on course to raise its production to about 450 million tons in 2018 from about 300 million tons last year, Alves said. The company’s average production cost in Brazil is about $22 a ton, which could fall to $18 after mine expansions, he said. The company may trim as much as $6 off transportation costs to China if its ports allow very large ore carriers to berth, he said.
Like the CEO said years ago: Vale can happily producer iron ore for a $30/t market. So how long did you think iron ore could stay above $100? Iron's not exactly in short supply, y'know.

Today we learned something about another market commentator

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - Peter Boockvar on the market. I'm only linking to this because it's provided us with a great little piece of information that we need to keep in mind from now on:

My friend Peter Boockvar is not a fan of unconventional policies at the Fed to boost the economy. He’s also been a critic of the way QE has artificially boosted the stock market.

QE "artificially" boosted the stock market, Josh? How's that?

Here are the ways I can see QE "artificially boosted the stock market":

1. by forcing the economy out of an economic depression that would have otherwise kept the S&P below 800 for a decade;

2. by reducing rates in an attempt to stimulate growth and reduce unemployment, again out of fucking economic depression levels;

3. in the case of asset purchases, mopping enough disastrous paper that money could flow back into the economy instead of spending the next twenty fucking years repairing the balance sheets of all the banks;

4. by giving market participants enough hope so that now, six fucking years later for the love of Christ, the S&P finally has an 18x multiple on 12-month trailing earnings; or,

5. wharrgarbl.

The first 3 points, if you don't get it, are ways that QE boosted the fundamentals that underpin the economy. The fourth is the way that QE corrected the hyperbearish doomster psychosis that took hold for years after we were threatened with bank runs and tanks in the streets.

None of them are ways that QE "articifially" boosted the stock market - unless you believe that earnings are a lie, or that a P/E of 18 is unreasonable for a bull market that's just got going.

Point 5, however, is the assumption that earnings are a lie, or that a bull market S&P index should trade at a P/E of 12 or less; or that gold is money, that the US dollar is worthless, that Obama is a gay muslim atheist, or anything else with no basis in reality.

It seems Boockvar believes #5.

If you also do, Josh, then you know fuck all about economics, and it's a damn good thing that Ben Bernanke was in charge the last few years instead of someone like you.

So thanks, Josh: I'll ignore anything out of the mouth of Peter Boockvar from now on.

I strongly suggest you read the last 5 years of Paul Krugman's blog to give yourself a bit of a fucking education. Because he's been right continually, and right by using a theoretical model that has evidence to back it up, while all your idiot Wall Street buddies have been wrong.

Friday videos - a double shot of Cub

Riot grrrl but not really, Vancouver circa 20 years ago.

My Chinchilla:

Go Fish:

Now I command your brain to repeat to itself "ooh la la, oo-ee cha-cha, ooh la la, cha-cha-cha", over and over again, until you can take no more and take a power-drill to your own skull in an attempt to make it go away.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

BIG WHITE CANDLE IN GOLD: here's what it means


A big white candle could be a very good sign of the end of this downtrend, especially with the MACD about to cross over positive.

And, y'know, opex clearing out at 2:30 today, though that has nothing to do with the price of gold.

And, y'know, Indian wedding season coming though of course that has nothing to do with the price of gold either because Indian farmer peasants all magically buy fractional shares in Google somehow nowadays don't they.

Can we please sue Proctor & Gamble into the stone age now?

Washington Post - why dentists are speaking about about the plastic beads in your toothpaste.

Wait... what?!? I haven't seen the words "NOW WITH FUCKING POLYETHYLENE BEADS BECAUSE FUCK YOU IS WHY" on the toothpaste that I buy.

Oh, and they're non-biodegradeable too?

So I'm dumping non-biodegradeable plastic into Lake Ontario every time I brush my teeth, as are the other 5 million or so people in the watershed?

Was I supposed to be spitting into a garbage receptacle all this time?

Fuuuu. ck.

Can we please sue Proctor & Gamble into the fucking stone age now? I mean, did they realize they are now on the hook for cleaning all the plastic out of every fishery and fresh water source in the world? Who's the fucking genius who thought this up?


Here's some stuff to read on this wonderful panty-piddling day:

Bonddad - R2K continues to underperform. Pay no attention to those TA clowns who say it's predictive of an imminent collapse. Bonddad tells you what it really means:
a declining risk tolerance on the part of traders
That is really all it is. Now sure, sometimes declining risk tolerance happens right before a market collapse. But if that were the case today, you'd see a fundamental reason for the collapse in the economic indicators, and we aren't seeing that. But good luck convincing your goldbug TA buddy to follow economic indicators: he'd have to learn some economics first, and that'd mean admitting that gold isn't money.

Gavyn Davies - no hard landing yet in China. China seems to have run into difficulty finding a cliff to jump off of.

FT beyond brics - Chinese banks see surge in bad loans in first half. Which, of course, already happened in the first half. Good luck trading that information, Mr. "I don't own a time machine".

Mineweb - GS' Jeff Currie is still calling for a gold collapse. Dude, way to stick to your guns! But hey, you might want to tell your gold stock analysts so they can revise all their high price targets for gold miners like BTG.

Red Orbit - now we know what causes peanut allergy. The answer will shock you!

VIX weekly, a target

Here's the $VIX weekly candles, with 3 standard deviations plotted:

Looks like a typical market piddlefest sends $VIX above +3SD. Oh look, we had a similar piddlefest in end September 2013.

Of course there could be a bigger piddlefest this year, given the whole Fed rate rise fear thing.

But probably not as much of a piddle as the big 2012 Euro Dooooom piddle.

We'll see.

Three risk charts, the smell of fear, and Mila Kunis


Someone ring Joey the Weasel and tell him now is an appropriate time to run an article about high-yield debt getting SLAMMED.

Though fundamentally it's still well-funded so this is still a buy op.

But at -3SD it's revealing an unreasonable fear.


Still -2SD. Now it's wiped out the entire advance since May, and on 2 weeks of action. Good call, Josh!



I'd love to see $VIX pop to 30 or 40 on this weakness, cuz if it did I'd short $VIX into the frickin' stone age. But, just like me marrying the beautiful and intelligent Mila Kunis, I guess it'll never happen.

Wall Street Whitey pees panties, suddenly likes gold again

Well well well.

Wall Street Whitey looks scared today. That sure is a big candle already, especially after such a big down candle yesterday.

And look what happens when Wall Street Whitey is scared:

Well well well!

Wall Street Whitey is selling SPY and buying GLD, eh?

I thought gold was going to $0? That's dumb to buy an asset with no yield, a carrying cost, and no inherent value beyond what the next fool is willing to pay, eh?

I wonder what inspired this?

Maybe the US dollar is collapsing and oh wait

Nope, USD is still up.

And gold is up despite USD being up.

Wait, I thought gold moved inverse to USD? I thought USD had any importance to gold whatsoever?

Well well well.

In the words of a great philosopher*:
It's a turvy-topsy world.

It is a sham, but it's a sham with yams. It's a yam sham.

*- Buffy the Vampire Slayer

Then again, maybe this is why gold is going down?

With the caveat that, again, I found this link via that Russian neo-Nazi propaganda site - which is funny because the article is actually very bearish gold if you think about it:

Bloomberg - Venezuela opens gold vault for analyst to count bars. So maybe people are selling gold in the expectation that Venezuela defaults and has to sell its gold to pay its bills?

I dunno, maybe.

India has quit buying gold forever... oh wait

With the caveat that I found this link via our favourite anti-American, Vladimir Putin-funded, Russian neo-Nazi propaganda and disinformation site:

Hindustan Times - 50 tonnes of gold smuggled into India in the past 10 days. Don't click on it if you don't want popups. In fact, I'll quote the whole thing for you so you don't have to worry:

About 50 tonne gold has been smuggled into the country in the past 10 days, and subsequently pushed into the market to cater to a surge in demand for the precious metal in the festive season. There is a heavy demand for gold during Dussehra, for which booking and supply will start from Thursday, when shradh ends and Navratri starts.

Market sources said that 30% of the smuggled gold has been supplied in Mumbai to unscrupulous jewellers, while the rest was distributed to different parts of the country.

Sources said that illegal gold is finding a place in the market because of below average import resulting from the 80:20 scheme and 10% import duty. Against the average monthly demand of 80 tonne, the import is presently around 51 tonne in the country.

Sources said that gold was smuggled into the country through the land route, via Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Pakistan. “This is because airports have tightened security, restricting the smuggling of gold by the air route,” said a market expert. The Mumbai airport customs, which has started a serious crackdown on gold smugglers, has seized around 529 kg gold from April to August this financial year.

Experts fear that more gold will be smuggled from similar land routes in days to come, as the demand will shoot up once the marriage season begins, in the later part of November. “There will be huge demand because of the festive season, and also the low price at which gold is presently being traded,” said Kumar Jain, vice-president of Mumbai Jewellers’ Association.

Jain said, “The government should immediately bring down the import duty and relax the 80:20 scheme, so that official import goes up. That will bring down the smuggling.”

Rajiv Popley, director Popley Group, said, “Smuggling of gold has been on the rise for the last eight months, due to irrational supply issues. The officially available gold was at a premium, which was higher than anywhere else in the world.”

Popley said that the demand for gold is increasing with the onset of festivities. “Both Dussehra and Diwali are auspicious festivities to invest in gold,” he said.

More food for thought for those of you who like to ponder the possibility of a continuing gold collapse to $400/ozt.

Indian harvest is late this year btw.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Why you should ignore both Albert Edwards and the queers at Zerohedge

How's this for doom?

Zerohedge - S&P 500 on the verge of the ULTIMATE DEATH CROSS!!!1!

Holy fuck!

That sounds bad!

Here's SocGen's Albert Edwards:
Regular readers will know that we have always followed analyst optimism closely (optimism here defined as the percentage of analysts EPS forecast changes that are upgrades). We have shown previously that it is not the level of analyst optimism that is important for the equity market, but the change in optimism (see right-hand chart below). Somewhat surprisingly we have found that the change in analyst optimism tends to be a very good leading indicator of economic activity (it mirrors almost exactly the OECD and Conference Board leading indicators), but it is published on a far more timely basis, and more importantly it is not subject to revision in the way the economic data and leading indicators are.

Hence we note that the aggregate monthly analyst optimism data has slid below the previous lows of last year and the year before, to the sub-40% mark (see chart above). This has taken the 6-month change in optimism back into negative territory, which is beginning to drive the equity market back into bear market territory (see left-hand chart below).

My colleague Andrew Lapthorne calculates analyst optimism data on an even more timely bottom-up basis and publishes it in his weekly Global Equity Market Arithmetic- link. He notes the dramatic collapse in the US analyst optimism to below 30% for three weeks in a row! These data are entirely consistent with a US already in recession and supports that recent assertion in an interview with Lakshman Achuthan of the ECRI.


Finally I want to share with you news that the S&P is on the verge of an “ultimate” death cross (see chart below). This is where a 50-month moving average (currently at 1152) falls below the 200-month average (currently 1145). The Trend blogspot (link) tries to make some sense of this very rare event. They note that the averages came close to crossing in 1978 towards the end of the 1965-82 secular bear market, but just held. By contrast Japan suffered a monthly death cross in 1998 and 14 years later we are still in the firm embrace of the bear. Watch this space.

Dear god in heaven!

Oh wait....

Turns out that the Russkie propagandist Nazi queers at Zerohedge posted this on 16 July 2012.

What happened to the market since then, I wonder?

Oh... S&P's up nearly 50% since then, NASDAQ almost 60%.

With this one little fact, you should now realize how smart it'd be to fucking ignore Zerohedge and their little faggot Putin bumboy Albert Edwards forever more.

Here's some more news

Some more news:

Calculated Risk - continued strength in architectural billings. Another minor indicator shows the US is still growing. Inquiries is particularly nice.

Calculated Risk - continued strength in chemical activity barometer. Another minor indicator shows the US is still growing.

Calculated Risk - continued strength in ATA trucking index. Speaking of which, I know for a fact that New Deal Demoncrat reads this blog. NDD, are you carrying all these indicators in your weekly summaries? I know they're minor, but they provide colour and detail.

FT beyond brics - is China's September PMI uptick to be trusted? Whether it is or not, that people are asking this is suggestive that China is done for Western investors.

Casssandra Does Tokyo - the rule of law is vastly underpriced by those who benefit most. Um, no, no it's not. Seriously, I understand the intent behind this article, but commies like CDT have to understand that the plutocratic elite don't want rule of law. It gets in their way. For example, they suspended rule of law at G20 in Toronto. All they want is rule by elite: they don't need legal protection when they have elite power.

US dollar strength and gold

Bespoke - best quarter for the dollar in years. Strength in USD is what you'd expect in a secular US boom, isn't it?

Oh hey, speaking of which, that reminds me of something. Here's a chart of the price of gold with US dollar strength factored out:

and here's the weekly:

Weird how the impending challenge of multi-year support disappears in the weekly chart, no? Factor out USD, and all it shows is a descent and retest of support at the weekly SMA(50).

Too bad that only Americans buy gold....

Silver's chart looks a little histrionic


I think I noted a few days ago that silver can usually only puke for 3 months at a time before it has to pause and catch its breath.

Well, with an RSI(14) of 13.7, I don't see where it's going to get the energy to keep it up.

Hey, maybe it does, but I'm skeptical now.

Especially since this week is opex.

A bit of news

A few news bits from last night:

BI - Russell 2k death cross. Every clown on earth has heard about it by now, so it's probably meaningless.

Reuters - Samaras tells Germans Greece can exit bailout early. Hey, remember all those guys who predicted Greece was going to leave the EZ? Do you remember their names? You shouldd go look them up, because now you can make a list of people who have been proved to have no fucking clue whatsoever about Europe.

Reuters - Magna to open two new plants in Gujarat. This is weird: Frank Stronach not the type of guy that you'd think makes expensive mistakes. And India actually doesn't buy many cars today, and you'd think they won't be buying many over the next 5-10 years, and the country doesn't exactly have the infrastructure you need for a just-in-time manufacturer. So why did he do this?

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

First they open the grave of Dracula, now this

KAKE - Kansas governor Sam Brownback declares October "zombie preparedness month".

Right that's it I'm going long silver.

Something interesting about the silver chart

I was looking at the daily candles for silver, marvelling at how the price has stayed below its EMA(10) for two months.

I mean really, every single day for 2 months, it's been below its EMA(10). That's a very short EMA, and thus very unrelenting selling.

I wondered how often this has happened recently, and so I looked at the weekly candle chart:

Since the great poop of early 2013, silver has only managed to go straight down for 3 months at a time: Sep-Nov 2013, Mar-May 2014, and right now.

Even if silver is totally screwed forever from this day forward and one day we'll be wiping our asses with it, nevertheless as a production-constrained commodity it should only drop in a slow trend, not a catastrophic collapse. These last 3 multi-month drops were too steep to be market-rational behaviour, and thus each caused silver to pop back up.

The caveat to the above is: look what happened last time multi-year support got pooched, back in April 2013.

But the counterargument to that is: you really expect silver to drop 40% from here before Xmas?

Google autocomplete is fun

Without further comment:

Except to say that I find it shocking nobody got the Red Dwarf reference earlier.

Yup, junk's started diving again

Here's junk taking a dive:

I guess if this is your end 3Q, you're going to "rotate out" of junk bonds this week, right?

Actually that probably explains most of what's going on.

Copper sucks™

All the concentration on Shanghai inventories and Reuters Inside Metals news misses one thing:

Copper's daily candles just broke a horizontal support line and an intermediate uptrend line yesterday.

And copper's weekly candles have been in a steady downtrend since end 2012.

Japan is flying high but the American ETF players don't know it


Hey, lookie dat. Japan's broken out of a consolidation and is flying high. Score one for Michael Shaoul and his long-Japan stance.

But wait... this is the American-listed Japan ETF and it's still only in a boring consolidation. What gives?

Well, CJP.TO is yen-hedged and EWJ isn't. Thus I guess CJP.TO is grabbing the Nikkei new highs that EWJ misses out on due to yen-dollar, I guess.

This gives several reasons to like buying CJP.TO right now;

1. It's going up.

2. American TA wankers don't know enough to buy Japan yet, cos the American chart hasn't given a signal.

3. If the US market continues to underperform relative to last year's blowout, Americans will eventually see Japan as the only clean shirt in the wardrobe.

Some Tuesday morning news

Up nice and early today, so here's some news before everything gets hectic:

BI - iron ore collapses below $80 a ton. It has nothing to do with falling demand, Sam Ro you fucking scenester retard: it has to do with the fact iron is such a plentiful commodity that you can go to Australia and mine it at a profit for $30 a ton. Fact is, Rio and Vale can build out production faster than the world can expand demand. Supply and demand, pencil-neck: look it up.

FT beyond brics - beware the end of the LatAm middle class boom. That's what happens at the end of a secular bull cycle in EMs. Wow, this has really become a meme only 2 years after I called it, eh?

Pragmatic Capitalism - why Warren Buffett is right to hate gold. Hey Cullen, does it have anything to do with opex being this week? Just wondering.

Pragmatic Capitalism - why is the price of gold falling? Maybe because it's opex this week, Cullen? Oh and quote:
Despite continuing QE and huge government deficits the price of gold has fallen 35% since its peak in 2011 and is down over 10% from its highs this year. Is there a logical explanation for this? I can’t be certain and I could be totally wrong, but [wharrgarbl]...
Is there a logical explanation for anything going down, Cullen? Yes there is. More sellers than buyers. If the price of anything goes down it's because there's more sellers than buyers. Smarten the fuck up, Cullen you twat.

Dread Central - researchers plan to open Dracula's cave, this probably won't end well. Um... that sounds like the bottom is in for silver. No really.

Daily Mirror - has Doctor Who become unsuitable for children? Ooh, Doctor Who is now too scary for your little precious snowflakes? Cue Chopper:

Liberty Voice - universe may be an illusion or hologram. Well if it was an illusion, I'd be happily open-married to Mila Kunis and Stacy Keibler. So I guess it must be a hologram, then? The universe does really seem to resemble something like this:

Monday, September 22, 2014

Some useful news reading today


New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators show signs of deceleration. Though everything is still okay.

Bespoke - subsectors are dropping like flies. This story of participation-narrowing has now become a thing.

New Deal Demoncrat - blah blah commie Keynesianism. All ribbing aside, he outlines what he thinks will be the possible origins of upside and downside risk in the US over the next year. I'll quote the entire thing because you need to pay attention:
4. What would make the economy come closer to "escape velocity?" Is there anything that is reasonably likely to happen that could give the economy a second wind? I see two candidates:
• Even lower long term interest rates (refinancing, home purchasing). Long term treasuries bottomed at 1.74% in mid 2012. Mortgage rates made a bottom just over 3% shortly thereafter. Corporate bonds yields also made lows in 2012. Recently corporate bonds in particular have come near those lows. A new low in bond yields would send a powerful signal that the expansion is going to continue for awhile, especially with the inevitable new round of refinancing of consumer debt at lower rates.
• Gas prices declining under $3/gallon. Gas prices are like a tax on consumption. The less consumers spend on gas, the more they can both save and spend on other stuff.
• A significant rise in median real wages. This would be nice. I just don't see it in the near future (except as a byproduct of a further fall in gas prices). Hence, not a third candidate.

5. On the other hand, what are the most likely trends that would cause an economic downturn?
• Well, first of all, the reverse of the two items I listed above. Higher interest rates would bite into consumption, as would higher gas prices.
• "Conundrum 2." If the Fed actually starts raising short term rates while long term rates are declining, that would create one of the classic signs of a recession coming - i.e., a flat to inverted yield curve. If it happens in a deflationary environment, that would be even worse. Such a yield curve has only happened twice in the last 90 years -- in 1928 and 2006. That's why I call it the "Death Star."
• The combination of no increase in wages, no new lows in long term interest rates so no refinancing, together with a significant downturn in stock prices lasting several quarters. This is the most likely scenario. By next summer, we will have gone 3 years without consumers having been able to refinance debt at lower interest rates. Since 1981, this has been the sine qua non for a downturn. When the inability to refinance is accompanied by no wage increase, and no increase to new highs in widely held assets, in each case a recession has followed.
So there's your cheat sheet for the next year.

Ritholtz - why hedge with a hedge fund? He asks why someone like Calpers, with a multi-decade investment horizon, should hedge short-term fluctuations. Hey Barry? You missed your own point: if there was any hedge fund in the world that did successfully hedge short-term fluctuations, it would outperform SPY. No hedge funds do because they're all run by idiots, thus there is no incentive for Calpers to choose a hedge fund over buying SPY.

Ritholtz - is money flowing out of Europe? Yes it is. Wonder when the plutocratic German elite will realize they just killed their continent? Probably never, considering they've always been happy with a deflating economy.

FT beyond brics - EMs will never be DMs. Not what the title suggests. But this part here was interesting:
EMs will go on growing and their citizens will go on getting richer. As with some of the Gulf states today, they may reach levels of GDP per capita that are higher than in many developed markets. But they will still be EMs because they will not be the stable, liberal democracies Titherington describes.
It's interesting because rich people in unstable illiberal nondemocracies have a strong incentive to put some of their wealth into a certain yellow metal. I'm only sayin'.

Reuters - China home prices fall for fourth straight month. I wonder what other China-loved wealth products have done badly over the past few months? Any yellow metals following this trend?

Mineweb - India's coal import rush leads to port congestion. If India's port system can't even handle an increase in coal demand, then how the heck is India supposed to do all this capital investment growth crap that Modi is expected to accomplish?

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - buttcoin now losing major support. Quote:
The question for longer-term Bitcoin bulls is whether or not Apple Pay makes it so easy to buy stuff electronically that the idea of mining / storing digital coins and breaking them up for transactions becomes totally ridiculous, other than for narco-traffickers or international arms dealers.
Oh you di'n't!

Vice - Atlas mugged. Everyone loves the story of how Galt's Gulch Chile turned out to be a disaster. Personally, I want to remind you all that I was mocking Galt's Gulch Chile before it was popular.

Wall Street Whitey wets his frilly pink girl-panties and all of a sudden he likes gold again

It's kinda funny to watch Wall Street Whitey run back into the loving arms of gold whenever a 1% intraday drop in the NYSE gets him worried about imminent global financial collapse again.

Emerging markets: let's keep this our little secret


EEM broke the neckline and is now in freefall.

Great stock pick there, Josh. Three months of advance, now all gone in the space of two weeks. Go back to blogging.

The China 25 is also diving, and two months worth of advance is now kaput.

Let's just keep it our little secret that the Shanghai exchange, which is the domestic smaller side of the Chinese economy, is still looking mighty fine.

I'd look up the FXI discount to NAV but I can't be arsed.

Monday morning market something-beginning-with-m

Tried to create an alliterative headline, couldn't be arsed.

Here's charts, let me tell you a story:

HYG might be locally topped at the SMA(50) and threatening to fail a MACD cross, and thus about to drop for a bit; thus maybe we can expect the algos to freak out and puke stuff.

Because the algos don't know how to factor in the fact that junk debt is the most well-funded that it's been for a decade. It's just a dumb intermarket TA input to them.

IWM still hasn't flown upward, and now it's even -3SD. Cuz reasons. I guess you could say small-cap has spent the past couple years outperforming, now it should stop?

And yet, transports tells us that the real US economy (manufacturing, exporting and buying things, which always necessarily also entails transporting them) is still doing fine.

As evidenced for example by Union Pacific, which still seems to be sailing along quite fine, no? I mean it's still going up, no? 1.9% yield and two divvie raises in a year is a good omen, no?

And yet $VIX pops back over the EMA.

Translation: fuck I dunno. Maybe the market just wants itself to puke in September and realizes it's running out of time?

GDXJ: tim-berrrrr!!!!

Google "Brian Griffin barfing" yourself, I can't be arsed:

I guess we can now stick a fork in the "interesting relative strength of the junior miners" meme.

On Goldman Sachs' Jeff Currie, $1050 gold, and B2Clive

So I just read that Goldman Sachs has cut its B2Gold target price to $4.

However, lest we forget, GS' Jeff Currie has regularly reiterated his call for the price of gold to hit $1050 by the end of this year. He's regularly reiterated this call since late 2013. It's been in the press and everything.

Now, I reckon that - assuming we actually lived in a world of logic instead of the swirling miasmic pandemonium of chaos birthed by the goddess Discordia that I truly believe in - one of the three four following statements must hold:

1. Goldman Sachs really honestly believes B2Gold to be worth $4/share at $1050 gold.

2. Goldman Sachs doesn't really believe that gold will hit $1050 by the end of this year.

3. The mining analysts at GS don't talk to Jeff Currie, and Jeff Currie doesn't talk to the mining analysts.

oh, I almost forgot:

4. GS wants to dump all its BTO shares into the laps of its muppets.

You figure it out.

I'd have included voting buttons on this post if I were so arsed.

Sunday, September 21, 2014

WHAT HAPPENS TO GOLD IF GOLDMAN SACHS GETS WHAT IT WANTS?: John Kaiser says the answer will shock you!

Haven't heard much from Kaiser recently:

John Kaiser - what happens to gold if Goldman Sachs gets what it wants?

He obviously doesn't read my blog, because he thinks US equities are in a bubble and the USD economy is "just limping along".

So I guess he's gone back to the darkside.

This isn't late 1999, John; it's more like 1994. Oh, and John? Europe has always sucked.

You might also want to read Jim Rogers' Hot Commodities for a discussion of what happens to commodities and EMs when the US goes into a secular bull. I don't think he's ever explained the physics behind it (cos Rogers is still a bit of a nitwit who has no clue about economics), but it's easy enough to puzzle out for yourself.

It's yet another lesson in the importance of maintaining intellectual hygiene. You'll be led astray if you listen to even one goldbug whose pronouncements are in stark contrast with hard economic data.

By the way, 3Q14 is almost over, and I already have a scheduled article making fun of one wackaloon who predicted $875 gold by end 3Q14. Stay tuned!