Friday, August 29, 2014

Larry Swedroe: who cares what Hussman forecasts? - who cares what Hussman forecasts?

Welcome to the club, Swedroe you pantywaist. Where were you two years ago when I was mocking John Hussman for his incompetent bullshit?

As further evidence of why you should ignore market forecasts like Hussman’s, consider the following performance data on his flagship fund, Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX). As of Aug. 4, 2014, the fund had $1.1 billion in assets—less than 40 percent of what it had just 19 months earlier—as investors fled, unhappy with the poor performance.


According to Morningstar, for the 10-year period ending Aug. 1, 2014, the fund managed to lose 1.3 percent a year, trailing the S&P 500 Index—which returned 8.0 percent—by more than 9 percentage points a year. That’s actually even worse than the 10-year calendar returns (2004-2013) of the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index, which returned 1.1 percent a year. And it’s far worse than the performance of every single major equity asset class over that period.

It even managed to underperform the almost riskless Vanguard Short Term Treasury Fund (VFISX) by more than 4 percent a year for the 10-year period ending Aug. 1, 2014. The fund’s performance placed it in the very last percentile (100) of Morningstar’s rankings for the one-, three-, five- and 10-year periods. And for the privilege of investing with Hussman, investors pay 1.08 percent per year in fund expenses.

Yup. Hussman has in fact grossly underperformed cash for the past ten fucking years.

If you have underperformed the S&P 500, that's one thing. Hey, maybe you're trying to be too cautious. Buffett's slightly underperformed the S&P since the 2009 bottom and nobody calls him a dummy.

But if this incompetent fucking clown Hussman has underperformed the fucking dollar bill in your pocket over the last ten years, then he is not worth listening to.

Why is everyone still giving this worthless idiot ink? You can just ignore him, you know.

Friday videos: Rihanna's "We Found Love", and then some very naughty language

OK, she has a great voice and all, and it's a great song,

but it's a bit of a piss-off that this has made it to the "Billboard #24 song of all time", with over 10 million sales, when exactly these kinds of fat dance anthems were being turned out every week twenty bloody years ago by literally a thousand kids in basements all over the world.

And being utterly ignored.

And what the fuck were you people listening to twenty years ago, America?

Boys II Men and Mariah Carey. Toni Braxton and Bryan Adams. Phil Collins and Salt-N-Pepa.

What a fucking load of garbage.

OK, there was also Ace of Base, who were dance music. God only knows how they managed to bust their way into the US charts. And it was only a year or two after that when Everything But the Girl locked down a spot in the charts for over a year with "Missing".

But FFS America, those were the only two instances of dance music in your shitty charts for a decade.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Rosenberg now says the next recession is at least 4 years away, the fucking clown

Pragmatic Capitalism - Rosenberg the fucking clown now says the next recession is 4 years away.

On the one hand, Rosie has shown at least a couple braincells' worth of intelligence by getting off the Doomer Train before it entered the Tunnel of Looking Like a Fucking Idiot During the Best Year of the Market. Then again, maybe it just shows he has slightly more desire to stay in business than some asshat like Faber; I'm sure his clients at Gluskin Sheff must have been interrogating him about exactly why they should have avoided making money on that there 1000-point gain in the S&P.

But on the other hand, Rosie was still a doomer long after the market proved him wrong. So you can still put this guy in the clown bin and just leave him there from now on.

Any moron can get the past year right; any moron can get a 10-year secular bull market right. It takes someone with intelligence to get the past 6 years right, and David Rosenberg has demonstrated he is not someone with intelligence.


Gawker - the sound of Atlas shrugging. According to the article, Galt's Gulch Chile has turned out exactly how you would expect a libertarian paradise to turn out. Here's a quote from the blog of Canadian hero libertarian anarchist Wendy McElroy, which is the basis for the Gawker story:

A GGC celebration was held in November 2013. The alleged purpose was for people to finalize the selection of lots and other paperwork. No selection took place because no zoning permits had been obtained. A GGC celebration was held this April, with my husband and me in attendance. Indeed, I was the opening speaker. (BTW, I have made no money from the project other than the speaking fee.) The alleged purpose was for people to finalize the selection of lots and other paperwork. No selection took place because no zoning permits had been obtained.

Unbeknown to most purchasers, dramatic changes had occurred behind the scenes. Through maze-like transfers of cash and authority, Jeff Berwick was shoved out of the project and Ken Johnson was in control. I have sorted out most of the obfuscating tangle and I may soon be writing a history of the labyrinthine matter. For the moment, suffice it to say there is basis for various lawsuits; some are being pursued.

There will be no zoning for the 1.25-acre lots or other arrangements of less than 10 acres. Lots over 10 acres are beyond my ken. GGC is an environmentally protected area and it would take the political movement of heaven and earth to allow a community based on small lots to be officially approved. I had the opportunity to ask a question of the salesman who showed my husband and me "our property." I claimed it because I fell head over heels for the most beautiful tree I've ever seen. I felt an instant connection as though the two of us were old souls who had found each other. I could believe it, I could see it... waking up each morning and having coffee under that tree, telling it about my plans for the day. Months later, in a Skype conference, I asked the then-GGC-alienated salesman, "When you 'sold' us the property, when you printed out a photo from your phone that read 'Wendy's tree,' did you know you could not legally sell us the lot you were offering?" He said, "That is correct."

I suppose there is some comfort in being fleeced in good company, in being in the company of some of the smartest businessmen in the movement. I am not reassured. Perhaps it is because I am an Irish peasant and what reassures me is owning the land under my feet.

Alternately, maybe it's because you're a sucker who takes the works of a bitter welfare-bum sci-fi author seriously.

Have fun looking at your tree picture.

BTW, isn't it great to live in a country where property rights are enshrined by law, with a legal process that can be pursued to ensure you don't get screwed? Too bad about having to pay taxes for that, eh? It'd be a lot nicer to live in a fucking meticulously-constructed fantasy world where things always magically turn out fantastic for you because Capitalism.

UPDATE: Berwick himself chimes in with confirmation of much of the above. Turns out there's more than one sucker out there.

But we can all be sure that this will all be corrected by market forces, as long as there's no government interference.



Wednesday, August 27, 2014

UTTERLY ENGROSSING WORTHLESS GOSSIP: you won't believe your eyes

So anyway, I came across this page:

Yahoo - what celebrities you think are gay in Hollywood.

It's about a decade old, and it's a massive (goes on for pages and pages) summary of every piece of gossip about every single Hollywood person there ever was at that time.

If you're a gossip queen, that page is for you.

NB - yeah, I don't believe most of it either, but I do find the idea of Sheryl Crow & Anne Heche to be hot.

Two short videos about Bobby Genovese

By the way, here's a short video that City TV did on Bobby Genovese:

And here he is on AM 640 talking about his many fantastic vacation properties:

I also found a video of someone named Bobby Genovese playing jazz guitar on a nice sunburst Gibson-style guitar in Vegas, but he didn't look quite the same and the guitar playing was a little messy and inexpert for hot jazz.

But the guitar was nice.

Some morning news

There's a tiny bit of stuff worth reading this morning:

Ritholtz - no, student loans aren't going to crush the economy. Here's the data that proves that those blogging clowns you've been reading who are screaming about student debt as The Next Subprime are fucking idiots who prattle on based on a headline number. That they want to eliminate student loans, by the way, might just be because they want to stop poor people going to university.

Economic Times - rainfall's going to suck over north India. So the harvest ain't going to be great. Although this chart from Reuters is interesting:

The trend in harvests over the years has been upward, so another 80% rainfall season like 2009 might only bring output to 230Mt. Which won't really kill gold demand. Then again, "80%" is an uninformative number that can mean either slightly substandard rainfall everywhere, or regional collapses. We'll just have to wait and see. In any case, it's the south that buys the most gold per capita.

IKN - slapping people in the balls is fun. He's most recently been slapping Bobby Genovese in the balls over the whole Jemi Fibre thing. I eagerly wait the release of I Slap On Your Balls 2, probably later today.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

IKN: filtering a news release

IKN - how to filter a news release, from IKN176.

Either there's no real news worth reading today, or I've just become really jaded, or this fever I've had for a couple days is starting to kill me.

So here's a good post from IKN today on how to read the less hilarious junior mining news releases. Not just the simple things like base price assumptions, but also sneaky industry-smarts things like knowing that it costs more to mine a heap leach project in Chile than it does in Peru.

That's probably all you'll hear from me til something interesting happens in the markets - where "interesting" is defined as the US equities stop going up, or the junior miners stop going down.

Unless of course this fever kills me, in which case I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.

I wonder if today's the low in the junior miners

So it's OpEx, and what happens? Junior miners are going up stronger than the PMs.

Just like late May.

So it won't surprise me if they resume an uptrend through September, given today's somewhat fishy price action; but I'm still not going to play along til my EMA rule tells me to.

The PM OpEx setup

How's everything set up for OpEx?

Even with the overnight price pop, SLV is still in its same brutal downtrend, below its EMA(12). I won't touch it til that changes.

GLD is in a wider downward channel, which looks hopeful, but it's still below its EMA(12). So I won't touch it either. The orphaned cluster on Thursday-Friday-Monday looks a bit suspicious though.

GDXJ failed to break above its EMA a few times, is in a downward trend below the EMA now, and if it breaks its horizontal support at around $40.30 this chart will begin to frighten people.

But all that depends on whether the PMs have simply been held down by options expiry. Starting tomorrow, everything could take a new direction, which is why right now is a good time to start watching the daily candle charts.

By the way, it sure is interesting how all the bearish PM news comes out in the days before OpEx, no?

Monday, August 25, 2014

Monday news delivery

Here's a bit of less consequential stuff:

New Deal Demoncrat - all the forward indicators look great. So quit your whining.

Calculated Risk - the recovery in US heavy truck sales continues. So the US is still growing, and has a lot of room left to grow.

Mineweb - China's gold imports drop again. Because it's suddenly not cool for a minor party official to be hiding their fortune in gold bullion. By the way, do you think Goldman will see their $1050 2014 gold call proven correct?

IKN - ha ha Clive sucks. Now he's just being a meanie.

Ritholtz - you guys all suck at math. I see this all the time with newsletter writers who have no clue how ratios work, or why you should use log scales in charts.

JUNK BOND COLLAPSE CONTINUES, ACCELERATES: yeah no really this time it's for real


Junk has spent Friday and today going down.

Does that mean I'm going to be given yet another opportunity to make thousands of dollars shorting the $VIX in a couple weeks?

The Globe & Mail on Verdmont Capital and the "dot-bong" era (ha!)

I was checking what Tommy the Hump has been up to, and that led me to Verdmont Capital's blog, and they have been lurking about reading my blog for a while. They led me to this article:

Globe and Mail - investors take aim at Canada's medical marijuana industry. Quote:

The burgeoning sector is drawing comparisons to the dot-com boom of the late 1990s when investors rushed in to take advantage of a hot sector, and were duped by bold promises of future earnings that never materialized, while companies with Internet-related businesses cashed out on their inflated valuations.

Not surprisingly, the dot-bong era in Canada, as it’s been dubbed, comes with a healthy dose of investor-beware.

The way Mr. Rosen sees it, Canada’s medical marijuana sector is a land of opportunity that’s also fraught with risk. With each site he visits – more than 100 and counting – he must figure out which companies are worth investing in, which will go on to become licensed producers, and which firms should be avoided.

Who the hell dubbed it that, Grant? Cos that's a very funny name.

Except that .bong is not a TLD suffix. So it's actually a stupid name.

Anyway, CBC just ran a story on Sunday where they noted that all three main parties in Canada are now pro-pot.

1. The Little Prince is for total legalization;

2. the NDP is for "decriminalization", which is their way of saying "we have 97 seats for the first time in ever and don't want to jeopardize things by actually taking a position on anything and putting our tiny shrunken testicles on the line";

3. and even the Margaret Thatcher's Decomposing Head Up Our Asses Party is in favour of "decriminalization, except don't call it that because that makes us sound like the NDP, and we're making fun of them being in favour of decriminalization so we can't be seen in favour of it, but no really we're in favour of decriminalization too, except in our case it's decriminalization with Margaret Thatcher's decomposing head up our asses".

Apparently it's going to be an election issue-nonissue, in that if you want to vote against decriminalization of pot you're going to have to vote for some joke group like the Christian Heritage Party. Whoever wins will have the mandate of decriminalization - though the Conservatives probably won't do anything, since I expect they're only mouthing the words to trick people into thinking they don't have Margaret Thatcher's decomposing head rammed way up their bungholes.

So really, these companies should actually be able to make a lot of money in the future without having to play the bullshit game of "medical marijuana", eh?