Saturday, August 23, 2014

On cursive: stick to your own country, Pedro, you just got pwned

I was flicking through the internetoblogoverse to avoid doing anything remotely constructive on a Saturday, when I came across IKN wharrgarbling about a story on Tennessee "reintroducing" cursive in school:

IKN - on cursive. Quote:

Normally you can class me in the place from where the progressives speak (such a butt-ugly moniker, but it'll do for today) so it's kind of weird to find myself sticking up for the lawmaking beaks of Tennessee of all places (for one thing, that lesson my girl wrote up on the origins and ages of the planet may cause a few raised eyebrows among the more strident there, but let's leave that one for another day) but that's what's happening here and today. I have my conservative head on, I'm telling you things ain't what they used to be, I'm getting all fist-wavy about the news (to me) that you idiots up there are handing your abject idiocy to the next generation by not teaching them how to fucking write correctly. Assholes.

Guess what, dude! You fell for it! Suckered by the right wing yet again.

Wikipedia says:

In a 2007 survey of 200 teachers of first through third grades in all 50 American states, 90 percent of respondents said their schools required the teaching of cursive.

The real story here is that the right-wing paleolithics in Tennessee are using cursive writing in their grandstanding against the evils that Satanic muslim gay-marrying atheist Balrog HUSSEIN Taxbongo is visiting upon poor Christian Tennessee with his new Satanic Muslim gay-marrying atheist "common core curriculum", which doesn't explicitly demand teaching cursive writing (but doesn't ban it either).

They figure if they get the oldsters all whooped-up with lies about their grandchildren no longer learning cursive, and then defiantly pass a law at state level that bravely defends this shining light of their heritage from the rapacious evil of the Black Muslim, then maybe that's a few Republican voters back in the fold.

Seriously, dude, this is the same state that had a show-trial on Islam, which determined that Islam is not a religion, not one of whose "expert witnesses" knew anything about Islam. Read that link, seriously. The politicians in Tennessee are the world's greatest grandstanders.

And what's the use of cursive, anyway? Let's ask Wikipedia again:

The origin of the cursive method is associated with practical advantages of writing speed and infrequent pen lifting to accommodate the limitations of the quill. Quills are fragile, easily broken, and will spatter unless used properly. Steel dip pens followed quills; they were sturdier, but still had some limitations.

Quills! Remember those?

Oh, I sure do! Oh, the old days! Back in the old days there was nothing better than coming in from a hard day of ferriery, turning on the hurricane lamp, sitting down at the writing table and getting out a new quill so that I could write a letter to my cousin Ezekiel, who was working as a coureur du bois for the Hudson's Bay Company in Rupert's Land!

I work in engineering and I hardly ever write English with a pen. Sometimes I realize that I've forgotten even how to print.

And my printing is far easier to read than cursive.

By the way, your kids' teachers are doing it wrong. Here's what cursive really looks like:

And here's cursive:

Easy to read, isn't it? Yup, that's English.

And for a different flavour of headache, here's also cursive:

It's so damn useful to learn how to write like that, isn't it?

In fact, let's also include punishing children for poor penmanship by beating them over the knuckles with a yardstick until they bleed.

After all, how can you teach penmanship without beatings, anyway?

But hey, let's not stop with cursive. Let's also teach children how to write like this:

 It'll help teach your kids "wider-ranging and useful fine motor skills, as well as page organization, internal editing, oh man, the list goes on and on, not to mention the comprehension skills of being able to read other people's [illuminated manuscripts]."

Or even better, let's also teach this:

It'll help teach your kids "wider-ranging and useful fine motor skills, as well as [clay tablet] organization, internal editing, oh man, the list goes on and on, not to mention the comprehension skills of being able to read other people's [cuneiform]."

Or hey, maybe we should teach this:

It'll also help teach your kids "wider-ranging and useful fine motor skills, as well as [rock wall] organization, internal editing, oh man, the list goes on and on, not to mention the comprehension skills of being able to read other people's [cave paintings]."

Dude, you got suckered by one of the oldest right-wing populist tricks in the book.

Anyway, that wasted some time, good. Off to see what's on TV tonight.

Saturday movie: "They Live" with portuguese subtitles

It's one of the classics of subversive sci-fi:

Watch it before "They" take it down!

YouTube is in on the conspiracy you know!

TV series idea: Midnight at the Bouncy Castle

I came up with an awesome idea for a TV series:

Midnight at the Bouncy Castle

There's this guy who runs a childrens' entertainment company, with clowns and musicians and a bouncy castle and magicians and a ventriloquist and stuff.

But in reality, it's just a front for a secret organization that fights demons and vampires. And the clown is like a martial artist and the magician does real magic and stuff.

The ventriloquist's dummy is actually the leader of the organization; he's some ancient demon-hunter who got turned into a dummy a hundred years ago, like Sid from Buffy Season 1.

Oh and hey - they have a maintenance guy who's in charge of setting up the bouncy castle and running the generator and stuff, but in reality he's some invincible Qi-Gong master who can kill anything just by waving his hand. But he hardly ever gets involved in the fights cos he's usually too busy sitting around reading porn, like Jimmy the Janitor in Todd & the Book of Pure Evil.

So it'd be a funny piss-take on shows like Buffy, except also it could be serious and dark and stuff. But all the time you have the absurdity and the dissonance of stuff like clowns who are deadly cold-blooded martial artists.

Who should I pitch this idea to?


Friday, August 22, 2014

38 painful seconds of Sarah Palin

Derpy derp:

Ha ha!

You stupid Americans almost had this fucking fruitcake for a Vice President! I mock your stupid country!

I guess you could reply that she'd probably have quit after two years....

Some more Friday news reading

Instead of wasting your valuable time reading yet more obsessive-compulsive blather on that thoroughly discredited and proven-worthless steaming pile of shit known as the Shiller CAPE, how about reading some real news and analysis?

I mean I don't waste my own fucking time trying to disprove TimeCube, so why does Ritholtz think he has to disprove Shiller CAPE's usefulness? Quit wasting your fucking time.

Calculated Risk - miles driven increased in May. It was down for so long, it's interesting to see it moving back up. If the miles trend has reestablished itself, it'll be interesting to see if US gasoline prices rise as well - or if we instead see that funny secular commodity bear market behaviour.

New Deal Demoncrat - retail sales per capita. Dude, just wait to see what happens with gasoline and wages before you call this bull half-over.

FT Alphaville - on wages and inflation. Cardiff Garcia doesn't seem to buy the "secular stagnation" hype either.

The Krugginator - Charles Plosser is a clueless right-wing doomer cunt. Quote, with links:
The Times article singles out for special mention Charles Plosser of the Philadelphia Fed, who is, indeed, warning about inflation risks. But you should know that he warned about the danger of rising inflation in 2008. He warned about it in 2009. He did the same in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. He was wrong each time, but, undaunted, he’s now doing it again.
Man, that's what's great about professors. Nobody does merciless, withering mockery of the ignorant better than a prof.

By the way, here's a word of wisdom to those of you who like to mock others in print: there is no better mockery than that which simply uses your target's own words. Especially from a legal perspective.

Price Action Blab - where the heck are the horizontal consolidations? He thinks there's a problem with how there are so many BTFD Vs in the post-2009 S&P chart. But why should there be a problem? The US is still recovering from a panic-selling liquidity crisis in 2008-9. In contrast, 1995-6 occurred in an already mature bull market and (from what I remember) involved a lot of sector rotation as interest rates were brought back up from the 1991-2 recession. 2003-5 was in a bear market rally; there might have been some rotation there too, as the only sectors I can find that reliably did well coming out of 2005 were miners and oil. Basically, quit trying to draw false equivalencies: this time is always different. Just buy the damn SPY and quit piddling your pink panties.

Ritholtz - get ready for a Chinese rally. Yeah, or maybe not. A downward channel breakout can just be a widening of the downward channel's top bound, buddy: see 2005 on your chart. In any case, Barry, why the fuck are you looking at the Shanghai exchange's chart? Can you buy it? No you can't buy it. Look at a sack of Whitey-segregated garbage that the hedge fund clowns buy, like FXI, and tell me where the breakout is there. And by the way, has BAML never fucking figured out how to generate a log-y chart? Are they retarded or something?

Mineweb - rural Indian gold demand DISAPPEARING. All-caps to make the goldbugs read the story. But an interesting datapoint for me in this is that "about 7% to 8% of rural household savings goes into gold buying in India": that, my friends, is an asset allocation strategy, unconscious or not; and the big question is thus whether that rate can decrease over (what's hopefully still going to be) ten or twenty years of real wealth growth in India. I think that a change in the gold allocation rate is something that takes generations, not just years.

WaPo - why surveillance companies hate the iPhone. Crap... so does this mean that if I want proper datasec, then my next phone has to be an Apple product?

EMs - I don't like the weekly charts

Screw FXI, which doesn't measure anything in reality anyway, and screw EEM which god knows what the fuck are its constituents anymore.

Here's YAO:

Overbought by Bollingers, overbought by RSI.

Sure, it's a breakout of horizontal resistance, if you look at it that way. But turn it sideways a bit, and it's at the top of its 3-year upward-sloping channel.

I wouldn't buy it.

Here's the Shanghai:

Wow! That really sucks in comparison.

OK, maybe that's a triple bottom that played out over the past 2 years. That might actually be very bullish and override the overboughtness of the chart above.

Then again, maybe the $SSEC is reality, and the China ETFs are bullshit precisely because that's all the hedge fund clowns ever buy. So you get a "China stocks perform badly unless they're the ones the White suckers have bought" setup, which I wouldn't want to be part of.

Here's the Nifty:

Sure advanced hard on the Modi win, didn't it?

But do you remember what happened in Japan after Abe won? The Japanese ETF advanced by a third, then spent the past year doing nothing.

At some point, data has to take over. According to Shaoul, the Japanese data has been finally taking over, and yet EWJ is still doing nothing.Meanwhile, India's running into a monsoon - as well as a long period of structural adjustment under Modi if they're lucky.

Cambridge House Toronto - oh crap I almost forgot

So I suddenly remembered that there's a yearly goldbug exhibit thing in Toronto in September, and wouldn't it be nice to go?

Cambridge House - Canadian Investor Conference. Wait, what? You changed the name?

The Canadian Investor Conference Toronto, previously the Toronto Resource Investment Conference will be held at the Sheraton Toronto Centre Hotel. Three industries will come together for this 2-day event to cover RESOURCE, TECHNOLOGY and DIVERSIFIED investment opportunities. Companies in Mineral Exploration, Oil & Gas, LNG, Agriculture, Life Sciences, Energy Metals, Technology and Real Estate will exhibit. Top industry analysts, newsletter writers, c-suite executives, hedge fund managers, trends forecasters and finance celebrities will cover speculative and direct investments and strategies, economic outlook and macro trends.

Wait, what? Gas? Agriculture? Technology and Real Estate?

What happened to gold?

Pre-register online for free admission or pay $20 at the door.

Wait... what?!?

Pay $20 at the door?!?

Wow. Looks like there's no more shitty gold juniors who want to lay out a few thousand dollars on an exhibit in Toronto. Looks like that income stream is long gone, so now Cambridge House has to "diversify" into the other shitty scam stocks of the V and the X.

Even the speaker list is crappy.

OK, so there's Kaiser. And I've seen Danielle Park hitting these things over a past couple years. Calandra and GATA are no surprise. Westie has stayed away from Toronto (or not been offered a spot) these past couple years but now he's back.

But who are all these other clowns on the speaker list?

And there's no Cookie, no Jojo, no Mickey Fulp.

Hell, there's not even a bullion dealer on the exhibitor list. How am I supposed to buy gold and silver coins there?

That looks pretty darn bullish for the junior gold scene right there.

Michael Shaoul needs to read Krugman and Piketty

Michael Shaoul was on Bloomberg talking about when the Fed might raise rates:

Bloomie - Michael Shaoul interview.

As a reminder, Shaoul has been going on for months about how he thinks the data is over-estimating slack, and the US may see inflation pick up strongly before the Fed's targeted first rate rise.

The old guy with the gravelly voice (forget his name, I used to listen to his Bloomie podcasts) facetiously asks "what would happen if the Fed raised rates sooner than expected, just to add a bit of discipline to the market?", and Shaoul replies with a facetious answer.

And there he proves that while he's generally whip-smart, Shaoul doesn't have a clue in one vital area.

Krugman likes to remind us that the EZ tried to raise rates early in the post-2008 recovery, and that pushed them right back into depression.

For all I've been putting the boots to the "secular stagnation" thesis recently, I do agree with the Kruggatolah that Yellen probably is wary of being too early in raising rates, because the last thing you want to do is sabotage a six-year recovery that's only been looking hopeful for the past year.

And hey, if the secular stagnation theory is right, then maybe a too-early rate raise will push the US back into depression.

And in any case, OMG WTF?!? Shaoul is warning against wage inflation, and yet (speaking as a member of the oppressed working class) we do really need some wage inflation right about now. How the fuck is wage inflation a bad thing?

Oh, sure it's a bad thing for the ruling kleptocrats. But like I've been saying, maybe the "secular stagnation" thing is only an artefact of the rentier class' victory over the proletariat, and this is exactly what the endgame should look like when you have thirty years of workers' wage stagnation and Piketty's continued concentration of capital among the rentier class.

There's too many people trying to collect rents, and not enough people able to pay any more rents.

I've had my suspicions for a few months that Shaoul was a closet Reaganite, and this kinda confirms it.

He's still way damn smarter than any other market commentator out there, as far as understanding market cycles, so I'll keep reading him. But from now on I'll stick to listening to his interpretation of data, and from now on I'll ignore his opinions of what the Fed "should" do.

I mean, if he really truly knew what the Fed "should" do, he'd be working there, right?

I really do think he needs to get out of his shell and start reading some of the recent higher-level commentary on the peculiar nature of the US economy.

Also, saying the US market needs "discipline" is truly facetious and fucking pig-ignorant.

SPY, for all its recent excitement, is still only up about 30% since 2007.

And the 2007 equity top was not a bubble top.

A market that's still way below the long-term trend, trading at a vaguely reasonable P/E, does not need "disciplining". If you believe it does, then you probably also believe the old 19th-century commandment that a father should beat his wife and kids regularly, even when they do no wrong, just to remind them who's in charge.

Fun Friday news

It's great to have some fun once in a while, and mocking Barry Ritholtz for his doubting Mila Kunis is certainly fun.

It's like I said to someone: every one of these big-shot Wall Street fatties needs to be taken down a few pegs once in a while. Otherwise we might start believing the crap they're feeding us.

Anyway, here's the news:

Wealth of Common Sense - all-time highs in the stock market are perfectly normal. That's how you know the market is in a secular bull: it goes up. Stick that in your pipe, all you doomer TAs who... um... already quit reading my blog years ago because I insulted the fuck out of you.

BI - oil prices might deliver a shot in the arm to the US economy. I guess per Jim Rogers, you should expect a secular commodity bear, right? And that alone can really drive earnings & spending growth in a developed economy.

Gallup - investors have no clue about stock market's recent gains. Almost 80% of retail right now, if given $10,000, would invest it in cash or CDs. Less than 1 in 10 even know that the market was up 30% last year. How is this even remotely bearish for the market? My god, retail is still buying MREs and ammo!

Ambrose Evans Pitcherplant - Nobel economists say policy blunders have pushed Europe into a depression. Don't expect Europe to respond constructively, by the way: it's run by the Germans, and Germans are as pig-headed a people as you'll ever find. I'm only amazed that the "socialist superstate" of the ECU is still fixated on discredited right-wing Reaganite financial doctrine.

FOURTH BEST IN MALAYSIA FOR UNDERPANTIES: here's what you need to know

I'm going through my blog stats this morning to spy on my own readership, as the most recent couple posts testify.

And guess what?

My blog is now #4 in Malaysia for underpanties.

That is so totes amazeballs.

Interest rate fears trample gold! Ha ha ha!

And today, Wall Street Fatty tweets this:

WSJ paywalled - interest rate fears trample gold.

Uh, no.

Gold is being trampled this week by the coming options expiry. It happened back in late May too. We'll see what happens after next week.

Gold might also be getting trampled by fears of a poor monsoon harvest in India. That's the country that buys a big chunk of world gold production, and we're getting bad news about the coming harvest - though Indians do tend to whine and worry about the monsoon quite a lot.

Also, gold might look bad due to worries that the corrupt Chinese kleptocrat class won't be buying as much gold now that the anti-corruption campaign has everyone looking over their shoulders. Hey, maybe that's pure speculation, but I've heard Toronto condo prices are also dropping right now. It'd be interesting to talk to someone at the downtown Scotia Macotta and ask if they've seen fewer Chinese people at the bullion desk recently.

If you want to make the argument that US interest rates have anything whatsoever to do with gold supply and demand, or that supply and demand do nothing to determine the gold price, then I'd be very interested in hearing it.

But the fact is that fat white Americans don't buy gold. They certainly don't buy it based on interest rate movements.

And if the gold price had nothing to do with supply and demand, then the big ETF liquidation a couple years ago would never have made the gold price drop through $1500, right?

Anyway, if I wasn't a lazy-ass I'd go look through Tatyana Shumsky and Ira Iosebashvili's past articles on gold.

I mean, it seems there's always a flood of bearish gold news during the week before OpEx, and I darn well betcha it's the same few people in the press who file the articles. So, for example, we'll probably see an article before Monday on GS and Citi's bearish gold price targets. Gotta get everyone out by Tuesday, right?

Hello Barry! Since you like the Mila Kunis 2013 victory article, I'll repost it for you

Hey Barry!

You tweeted one of my posts back in December 2013, the one where I agreed with you about something without even adding anything new, and now this morning you came back* and visited the post again.

And you saw there was a link to this article:

Greatest Blog in the World - Mila Kunis beats all hedge funds in 2013.

What I don't understand is why you didn't link to that for all the world to see. I mean, everyone (including you) made fun of Mila Kunis for putting her money in stocks, and yet at end-2013 her strategy outperformed all hedge funds including Mister Hoity-Toity Can-Do-No-Wrong Paul Tudor Jones himself.

Doesn't that fit in with your narrative? The average person (not that Mila Kunis is average at all!) can just buy SPY and fuck off for 10 years, and she'll still outperform nearly every fat jackass on Wall Street.

I thought you agreed with that. Or is that Josh? I keep mixing the two of you up: one of you says just put your money in SPY and walk away, the other one piddles his little pink panties whenever the junk bond ETF drops 3%.

Anyway, since Barry loves the article so much, Imma be a brother but my name ain't Lehman reposting it here for y'all:

Friday videos - Boxxy the remix!!

My name is Boxxy you see!

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Are the miners broken yet?

Let's check the miner charts.


Hanging on to horizontal support but still not broken. I don't care about the SMA(50) crossover, it's bullshit.


Hanging on to horizontal support too but still not broken either.

The problem is, OpEx is days away. Gold and the miners got chokeslammed on the May OpEx too, and you can see in these charts that it turned out to be a giftwrapped buy opportunity.

We still have a few days for the OpEx games to play out. I don't know why any whiteys would be short gold with the Ukraine/Gaza/Iraq stuff going on, during gold's strongest season, so I don't expect a big slam, but crap can still happen.

The million-dollar question is, will the Indians be driving gold back up in September? You've still got the monsoon harvest and Diwali to look forward to.

Kun Huang finally out of prison, sues Silvercorp (in Canada obviously)

IKN has his own "usual suspects" that he likes to keep an eye on, and I have Silvercorp.

Kun Huang, the researcher who got tossed into a Chinese prison after instigation by Silvercorp, is now suing them for defamation, false imprisonment and corruption of officials:

Globe and Mail - Canadian sues Silvercorp for false imprisonment in China. Quote:
Now, in a lawsuit filed Tuesday in the Supreme Court of British Columbia, Mr. Huang claims that Silvercorp masterminded his detention as a reprisal for his research, whose publication prompted a steep decline in the company’s share price.

Silvercorp, his court filing claims, effectively enlisted the local Chinese police as its “agent,” giving them money, encouragement and guidance “to falsely imprison and then later knowingly bring baseless criminal charges against Mr. Huang.”

I have no clue about how these sorts of cases work, but I'd be worried the court may simply accept the detention as legal under Chinese law (such as it is) and dismiss the case. Does he have to first prove the corruption before the imprisonment can be argued to be "false"?

Anyway, the Vancouver Sun has a much better story, with video too:

Vancouver Sun - Vancouver stock researcher sues BC mining firm. Quote:
A Canadian researcher who was jailed for two-and-a-half years in China for a crime he says did not happen sued a Vancouver-based mining company in B.C. Supreme Court this week for defamation, false imprisonment and corruption of foreign officials in relation to his incarceration.

Kun Huang, a 37-year-old University of B.C. graduate, was released from prison last month, then deported home to Vancouver, where he filed a claim that reads like a spy thriller. He alleges that Silvercorp Metals used its influence on public officials in China as well as financial support to punish him in retaliation for a report he contributed to that caused Silvercorp’s shares to plummet.

“As a result of Silvercorp’s intentional wrongdoing and its utilization of the (local police) as its agent, Mr. Huang ... was subjected to years of false imprisonment with predictable deleterious effects on his mental and physical health,” states the claim.

Anyway, I'm hoping that he wins and fucks Silvercorp into the ground for millions in damages.

(PS yay! This is post #4000!)

Blodget gets it

Too bad he's got trouble finding decent staff who can do proper journalism instead of just caps-lock doomery, cos Blodget gets it:

BI - the economy stinks because owners are greedier than ever before.

By the way, here's a question for Krugman:

Isn't this what secular stagnation looks like?

Seriously: on the one hand you have the triumph of Volcker's shock doctrine keeping forward interest rate expectations artificially low. On the other hand, you've had 35 years of anti-union anti-working-class warfare led by the Republican Party, keeping real wage growth negative for decades.

Toss in Piketty's continued concentration of capital among the people least likely to spend it.

Don't you think that these, alone, might be entirely responsible for the datapoints that you're identifying as "secular stagnation"?

Kruggers might think he's such a radical pinko because he still advocates Keynesian economics, but the truth is his narrative is still entirely supportive of the existing plutocratic power structure and still participates in all its myths and fabrications.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014


Here's stuff, now read it:

Calculated Risk - architectural billings index highest since 2007. Sometimes you just can't argue with the data, right? I mean you can argue with the data, but only if you're a moron who has no clue what the data means.

Bespoke - continued pickup (A HA HA HA!! OH FUCK I SHAT MYSELF!) in auto sales. Do that again, Justin, and I'll hunt you down and kick your balls in.

Jim Cramer - this market is despised. There was another good article a few days ago that basically pointed out every single person out there is always buying the dip. So tell me something, Barry - why should you even expect a 10% correction? I mean, ever? If everyone buys the dip, and if there's still a lot of money on the sidelines, then how the hell does market physics produce a 10% correction? - interview with Pierre Lassonde. Strangely, Sprott have decided to start doing feature interviews with real businessmen who know what they're doing. Have they realized that there's no money left in stupid people?

NY Times - there are two Americas. How is it even a surprise that poor people search the internet for diets, guns and apocalyptic religion? But I think the author mixes it up: the reason these people are poor is because they're fucking fat racist gun-nuts who are waiting to get raptured.

Bit of morning perspective

I was doing some reading last night, and it was surprising to be reminded that this whole "Ukraine war" thing has been going on since at least April.

In that time, by the way, the S&P 500 has advanced by about 100 points.

I guess it really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, no matter what the lamestream media wants us to think at any point in time.

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Some Tuesday noontime noos

Here's some news for today:

Evan Soltas - calls bullshit on this whole secular stagnation thingie. He asserts that the secular stagnation thesis, being an extraordinary assertion, requires data to back it up beyond what we have. Personally, I'm starting to think that it's just a made-up fantasy from a bunch of economists who want to convince themselves that they're living in special times and have discovered something new.

Bespoke - range-bound Russell. My own bet is that it goes to new all-time highs, since the QQQ and SPY already have.

Ritholtz - spotting bullshit in the news. Unfortunately, he should have gone one further, and explain how to spot bullshit in people who are trying to spot bullshit. The continued love for childish Republican fairy-tales and the Russian state-funded propaganda at Zerohedge indicate that there are good ways and bad ways to distrust the media.

Krebs on Security - secret messages embedded in Google Translate. This is just damn spooky, and probably is evidence of some deep Google Translate hack. Either that or it's the ghost of Jorge Luis Borges.

Let's check in on Seafield Resources

So let's check in on how Seafield Resources is doing:

Ermagerd! Seafield is now selling for a shiny new hapenny bit!

But I don't get it! A junior mining analyst once said all these amazing things about Seafield:

The Gold Report:

This is a story with great geology. It has continuous excellent intercepts since its announcement of 449m of 1.25 g/t in December 2010.
Seafield has an NI 43-101 coming and the drill results are great.

Or how about this from

Seafield Resources Ltd. (TSX.V:SFF) yesterday announced a stunning drill hole result: 449 metres grading 1.29 grams per tonne of gold. With this intercept, which included a 23.95 metre segment grading 9.18 gram per tonne gold, there is absolutely no doubt that the Miraflores deposit is going to be a home run.

When the market opens later this morning, any shares you can get under a dollar will likely be ten-bagger potential, as with a few more drills holes like this one, and you’ve got Ventana 2 on your hands. (Ventana is currently the subject of a buyout offer by Brazil’s EBX Gruoup for $1.5 Billion.)


It might be tough to get shares at under a dollar when the stock opens up later this morning – you can count on substantial and ferocious demand for these shares. But with such a big intercept, there’s no doubt there is more where that came from.

Grab all you can with both hands.

Or how about this from Marketwired:

Following a Thursday mid-day halt in trading, Seafield Resources (TSX-V: SFF) soared today, after releasing details of their first three drill holes at their Miraflores property in Columbia. The third hole reported a stunning 449 metres grading 1.29 grams per tonne of gold, including a 23.95 metre segment grading 9.18 grams per tonne gold.

Based on these drill results, James West, publisher of the Midas Letter (, had a buy alert out to his subscribers before the opening today, calling this deposit a home run.

"When the market opens later this morning, any shares you can get under a dollar will likely be ten-bagger potential, as with a few more drill holes like this one, and you've got Ventana 2 on your hands", stated James West.


"You can count on substantial and ferocious demand for these shares. But with such a big intercept, there's no doubt there is more where that came from", stated Mr. West.

Should we still buy all the shares that we can? I mean, if this was a ten-bagger at a dollar, that makes it a... a... a thousand-bagger today! And that's a lot of bags! Amirite? Amirite?

I'm waiting for guidance! Tell me, mister junior mining analyst!

Somebody asked Google to take down an IKN post re: Liberty Silver

So here's IKN today:

IKN - Jemi Fibre blah blah blah

where IKN is back to old form.

Except the original link at the bottom of that post went to a repost of an IKN writeup on Liberty Silver, from IKN 179, which no longer exists on the internet. At least not in Canada, anyway.

The writeup has been deleted off the blogspot system "in response to a legal request submitted to Google", as you'll find out if you follow that particular link.

Informatively, that takedown notice gives you a link to a file where you can see who submitted the takedown request.

And guess who submitted the takedown request?

The Midas Letter.

But you can still read IKN's writeup at these other addresses

among others.

UPDATE: actually, it turns out that IKN's either been drinking too much or not enough, because he damn well wrote about all of James West's post takedowns two years ago.

Reminder, gold and silver OpEx is coming

Just to remind you, CME gold and silver OpEx is next Tuesday. So expect some fun price moves over the next week which might not be even remotely indicative of underlying strength or weakness. I suggest using GDXJ as a reality check on the metals moves.

Speaking of which, hey how's that new "silver fix" working out for you? You know, the one that's no longer manipulated by the cartel of evil bankers?

Uh-huh. That well, eh?

Monday, August 18, 2014

Some news items

Three blind newsbits, see how they run:

Bespoke - a different kind of second half. Apparently, the second half of each quarter has been a lot more positive than the first half of each quarter. That suggests that when you get the market to stop thinking about bullshit particulars like Chinese chicken or how much Walmart sucks, the underlying bias for the market is an upward drift.

Liz Ann Sonders - market players still piddling their pink panties over nothing. Liz (and a couple other people but we don't really care about them) authors an article pointing out that the US economy is still doing fine. I found this chart particularly interesting:

How is that kind of increase in domestic US oil production not a tremendous tailwind for the economy?

Bespoke - prices at the pump still falling. Which is a boon for the consumer. I mean, if you fucking capitalist scumbags aren't going to give them a raise to a living wage, they can still save money at the pump, right?

Sarcasm of the day

I thought this was funny yet true:

JUNK BOND COLLAPSE CONTINUES, ACCELERATES: ha ha gotcha no everything's fine actually check it out

Let's check in on the continued collapse of junk bonds:

I still await the day that Barry Ritholtz, Josh Brown, Joey the Weasel and all their friends apologize to the internetoblogoverse for freaking everyone out about what turns out to have been utterly nothing.

Instead, they have now all gone starkly silent on the subject of junk bonds.

I mean hell, isn't this just a 91% Fibonacci retrace before the collapse continues? Or something?

Come on, guys! Just two weeks ago it was impending dooooom! What about those junk bond ETF outflows? Is everything better now? Have you found something else to piddle your pink panties over?

SECULAR STAGNATION - comment on Olivier Blanchard et al

I'm now reading Blanchard's section in the Vox EU book on secular stagnation, and a slightly tangential idea popped into my head:

Blanchard presents a chart that shows the real interest rate has been in decline since 1985, with a bit of a stutter in the mid-90s.

To me, this does not jibe with changes in world growth trends: the decline happens uniformly across a US secular bull and an EM secular bull. It also is too damn long, I think, for the decline to be produced by a US demographic trend. Too much has happened over those 3 decades, and we've only started whining recently.

Also, if I remember correctly, the US demographic trend in working-age population is apparently about to change back to positive for the next while.

So has any economist anywhere given any thought whatsoever to the idea that the real interest rate secular decline over the past 30 years was directly the result of the Volcker shock doctrine? Maybe Volcker was so damn good at slaying inflation that he permanently changed the market's long-term expectations for inflation?

I mean, if Krugman's right that expectations of inflation generate inflation, then perhaps Volcker is the one single factor that has changed that feedback mechanism. I mean, was there ever a Volcker-style anti-inflationary attack ever before, anywhere, in the history of economies? (Would it even have been possible in the age of the gold standard?) Maybe the shocking extremity of his monetary policy permanently changed the perceived extent of the interest rate playing field.

If you're going to question stuff, then why not question what new thing happened when the origin of the present trend is identifiable in a chart? And if the world of interest expectations was permanently different after Volcker, then maybe that explains why interest rates have been different?

Because I sincerely doubt that the 2000s/2010s have been the first time in human history that people began to live longer and save more money. I'm sorry, Kruggers, that's a bullshit narrative right there.

To radically change the setpoint of a feedback-governed system and set it on a long drift away from the setpoint, you need a massively large new input. Volcker's shock doctrine looks to me like a good candidate.

The interesting upshot of this is that "secular stagnation", if you want it to stop, might need an Antivolcker of equal but opposite radicalism to counteract it.

But do you want permanently higher interest rates, Krugger? Is that a good thing? Or is it only good for the rentier class?

Or do you simply want growth rates above interest rates? If so, don't you think you should be paying more attention to Piketty?

SECULAR STAGNATION - comment on something Krugman said

I've been reading Krugman's chapter in Vox EU's secular stagnation book, because economists who aren't Krugman are probably wrong and I wanted to cut to the quick.

I found the below statement by him to be interesting, so I'll quote it here and hopefully I won't get sued or anything:

The most persuasive story about how monetary policy can work at the zero lower bound is that it can gain traction if you can convince the public that there has been a regime change, that the central bank will maintain expansionary monetary policy even after the economy recovers, in order to generate high demand and some inflation. As I put it a long time ago (Krugman 1998), the central bank must “credibly promise to be irresponsible”. But if we are talking about Japan, exactly when do we imagine that this period of high demand, when the zero lower bound is no longer binding, is going to begin?

And now we are talking seriously about secular stagnation in Europe and the US as well, which means that it could be a very long time before ‘normal’ monetary policy resumes. Now, even in this case you can get traction if you can credibly promise higher inflation, which reduces real interest rates. But what does it take to credibly promise inflation? It has to involve a strong element of self-fulfilling prophecy: people have to believe in higher inflation, which produces an economic boom, which yields the promised inflation. A necessary (though not sufficient) condition for this to work is that the promised inflation be high enough that it will indeed produce an economic boom if people believe the promise will be kept. If it is not high enough, then the actual rate of inflation will fall short of the promise even if people do believe in the promise, which means that they will stop believing after a while, and the whole effort will fail.

I find the bolded bit interesting because, as the Krugginator himself likes reminding us, there is a large and strident section of the US population whose heads assplode in a firestorm of wharrgarbl whenever you suggest that there is inflation around the corner.

Basically, "credibly promising inflation" in the US has the added difficulty of coming up against the entrenched rentier class' hatred of inflation. Show them coming inflation and they're going to puke stocks and buy gold; they're not going to contribute to an economic boom, they're going to strangle it.

Shit, if Yellen promises them enough inflation they'll probably get their ignorant puppets in the Randroid Objectivist party to impeach her. Or something. Because America.

I'm sure he's thought of this sociological complication.

I just thought it was neat because it's economics coming up against the obstacle of sociology, and that means sociology is superior to economics which is something I like to say to economists to piss them off.

On the past two US market tops

En passant of nothing, I'd like to share a personal thought with you.

All this time, for the past couple years, in the background I've been looking at stock market performance from the late 80s til today, going through charts of US equities and stuff. Among other things, I thought it'd be educational for me to look at lots of old charts to try and figure out what makes tops and bottoms.

I'm a holistic thinker, I work best when I present myself with an overwhelming pile of information and set out to construct a narrative that explains all of it.

Anyway, I've come to a realization about the "percent above 20SMA" indicator.

Bears like to chart the percent above 20SMA, so that they can find another excuse to scream about market tops. Problem is, it doesn't work that way.

I already learned over a year ago that the "NYSE percent above SMA" is a lying indicator. Apparently there's a large number of corporate bonds that are traded on the NYSE; so you can easily have a situation where the NYSE percent above SMA drops while stocks advance, if it's an environment where UST yields are increasing and pushing down corporate bond prices.

But recently I've started to look at the big rolling top of 2006-2008, and I've realized that narrowing of the percent above SMA that you see at a market top is a process that takes years, not weeks.

If you owned a basket of S&P 100 stocks in 2006, and you were magically selling at the top for each stock, in 2005-6 you'd already be dumping AMGN and MSI. Next up would have been a bunch of the healthier tech stocks like EMC. By 2007 you'd be dumping everything else, over the space of a year. The last to go would have been the oils (XLE, CVX and the smaller players like EOG and COG), because the oil price was spiking before the US market collapse. Over all this time, the S&P 500 index really didn't advance at all.

Point being, the creation of the cyclical top in 2006-8 was a long, drawn-out process, also confused by the late performance of oil. The "% above SMA" indicator moved over a process of years, not over a month. Importantly, the index went nowhere.

So what is it when the "NYSE % above SMA" drops over the space of a month, not years?

As above, if the equity index continues to advance, it might just be that UST yields are increasing, thus dropping the bonds side of the NYSE. That's decorrelation and it's bullish.

If the equity index has stalled, then a drop in NYSE % above SMA seems more likely to just be a symptom of a market rotation. We've already seen that several times this cycle.

NYSE % above SMA has to drop over a long period, while the market goes nowhere, for it to be a proper top.

All this, by the way, applies to 2007 and not 2000.

Cuz the other thing I've learned by going back and watching the charts was that the 2000 top was followed (outside of the tech space) by a slow market decline, while the 2007 top was followed by an accelerating fear explosion. After 2000, the market took a good 2 years to drop to the bottom; yes, tech stocks got slaughtered, but boring equities took a much gentler move downward.

In 2008, the downward spike was explosive, the volume was insane (literally 50% of a float could trade in 2 weeks for a lot of stocks) and there were a lot more stupidly-good deals in the market at the bottom. You could buy Ford at $2, and buying many smaller (not top-50) stocks could give you fantastic (>500%) gains if you bought at the bottom and held til today.

The 2000 top was also a quick event, while the 2006-2008 top was a very long and drawn-out process.

Basically, the 2000 top was a radically different top than 2008. I guess that's because we were worried in 2008 that there would be bank runs and mass unemployment. Basically another Dirty Thirties.

Which, by the way, is what they've been having in Europe right now. Which is no surprise that, after the 2008-9 bottom, it was pointless to buy any European NYSE-listed equity. They've all gone bloody nowhere in the past 5 years, and it's because Europe has remained in essentially a Thirties-style economic depression.

It's been different this time, because they have social services to keep people from starving to death. But they've still gone through a stupid depression, which as Krugman notes they've intentionally inflicted on themselves.

Anyway, there's some background thoughts for y'all.

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Ritholtz - why do you hate your readers?

That clown Mauldin is at it again.

BI - this chart does not prove a bond bubble. Cullen Roche takes issue with an outright lie from this week's John Mauldin doomery - again, a case of manipulating the axes on a chart to make bullshit seem plausible. It's sad that Roche had to waste his valuable time with this.

I didn't even waste my own time when I saw John Mauldin's bullshit posted on Ritholtz - except, of course, to ask why all of a sudden Ritholtz has started posting this buffoon on his blog again.

Why do you hate your readers, Barry?

Since certain people around here don't like kitten gifs....

Certain people around here are jealous that the President of the United States of America reads my blog for the kitten gifs, while their crummy blog is only ever read by Juan Vegarra, and then only when he's managed to do a PP to pay for his internet connection.

So I'll give you something different today.

A baby skunk video.