In your opinion, what does this blog need more of?

Saturday, August 9, 2014

STAR TREK: INTO SNARKNESS honest movie trailer


And this one was apparently terrible too. I had even forgotten how all the trekkies complained at how much they were screaming "augh!!! no!!!" at the screen.




AWESOME DUMB ROBOT MOVIE: the trailer


I was looking for a good movie to watch but came across this instead:



Pacific Rim really does look like "Awesome Dumb Robot Movie".

Apparently when giant seamonsters attack civilization, we're going to fight back by building giant robots who attack them with swords after forgetting they even have swords for the first bit.

Instead of, y'know, firing a few cruise missiles at them from 500 miles away.

I'm going to have to resort to watching the second Hobbit movie. OMG.


Let's mock the Kitco gold experts, Market Narrative edition


IKN forwarded the link to me, so I guess he's too busy chatting about Argentinian soap opera starlets on twitter to mock the Kitco gold experts this week and wants me to take over:

Kitco - strong majority of gold survey participants see higher prices next week.

Now, I don't have the same slant as he does: Mickeyman already proved that what the gold "experts" are really doing is reacting the the previous week's price movements, and that's okay because that's human investing psychology and I don't expect a Kitco gold expert to be any less human than you or I.

And I don't listen to them anyway because I invest (or don't) based on the price trend relative to short-term EMA. There's no price "prediction" that's guaranteed to win, except maybe that the S&P 500 will be higher 10 years from now.

So I don't get all worked up about the Kitco gold experts.

But IKN included goaded me with this hilarious quote from the article:

Adam Hewison, president and chief strategist with INO and MarketClub.com, is also bullish on gold, but offered another reason.

“We are extremely bullish on gold for the next five to six weeks. (We are) looking for a move to the $1,380 to $1,400 levels. Look for (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s theft of 1.2 billion (computer) passwords to strike fear into the online world and push gold higher,” he suggested.

Cue Beaker:



Buy gold because computer password stolen by Vladimir Putin.

Hm.

Yes, yes. Vladimir Putin stole 1.2 billion passwords from a bunch of online chat forums that were vulnerable to SQL injection. My trickymasseur.com account is now possibly under the control of the Russian Armed Forces as we speak.

Therefore I shall buy gold.

to... protect myself from...

russian computer hackers...

because... um...

fear...

and, um...

reasons.



Dear Adam Hewison, president and chief strategist with INO and MarketClub.com:

Your reasons are bad and you should feel bad.

Friday, August 8, 2014

A thought for the weekend


Here's a well-formed and coherent political thought for you, from somewhere in (where else?) the good ol' U S of A:




Chart for the weekend


SPY at 2:39PM:


With the caveat that a lot can happen between now and 4PM, I'd say that the decline has at least strongly decelerated, and possibly halted, at this point.

Selling volume has dropped on each heavy sell day since Friday. The black volume lines haven't swamped the red ones yet; but I think it's interesting that while red volume is beating black volume all week, the price has ended up going nowhere.

The Thursday and Friday selling volumes were already as large as the ones we saw in April.

So for SPY to go lower from here, I think it'd take far heavier selling than we've seen over the past two weeks.

Let's see if anyone wants to hold their gains through the weekend, or if instead this strong day withers and drops back down.


A few more newsglobules


New Deal Demoncrat - a better measure of labour utilization. Dunno exactly what utility this has.

Bespoke - oversold everywhere. I'd say that's the bottom and not just a "halfway" point like Ritholtz, because there's no damn reason whatsoever for a >10% correction.

Ritholtz - I'm very slowly starting to think this might be a secular bull market. Gee Barry, what's convincing you? Is it maybe the 1300-point advance in the S&P 500 to new all-time highs? Do secular bear markets include 200% advances to new all-time highs, dumbass?


Check for Rio Alto follow-through


Gold is weak, junior gold miners suck™, and yet:


I had thought there would be a flood of paper depressing the price as relieved Sulliden shareholders suddenly found themselves with paper that was worth something in a market where juniors are worth nothing. Instead, Rio is challenging its previous resistance at US$2.55. Also, there's buying interest on the US ticker.

I dunno if this is that magical "re-rating on no longer going out of business in 3 years" that we've all been talking about, but if so, I think I can wait for confirmation before jumping back into this.

Also I already made a whack of money on Rio back in June.

But anyway, the chart is worth paying attention to, moreso than most junior charts.


Junk bonds have been going up all week, actually. KTHXBYE


The junk bonds thing is last week's news. Here's a chart:


JNK has been going up all this week.

As you can see by the chart above, this past week's slope is actually steeper than the slope of the April-to-June run, which tells me that the market thinks junk is undervalued compared to its April-to-June pricing.

And as of yet there's still been no follow-through to last week's barfage.

But no, you guys all go ahead and continue to flog last week's news.


OH WAIT JUNK BONDS ARE FINE: here's what you need to know


ETF Trends - corporate finances support junk bonds, you know. Quote:
“What we’ve seen in high yield has really been a retail-driven story,” Contopoulos said on CNBC. “There’s been a confluence of events, between geopolitical, Fed and media coming out and talking about a leverage finance bubble, and the easing of lending standards, that have instituted some fear in the retail crowd. You couple that with valuations that were very, very rich at the end of the second quarter—I think that’s really led to a little bit of retail panic, if you will, although that has subsided over the last few days.”

Since the August 1 low, JNK is up 1.1% and HYG is up 1.5%.

Contopoulos believes the high-yield bond market will continue to “rebound pretty well,” citing strong fundamentals that support the asset class. Specifically, the credit risk is very low and Bank of America Merrill Lynch does not anticipate defaults over the next couple of years.

If you look at interest coverage, which is probably the single most important metric in the high-yield market—so the ability of a firm to ultimately make the interest payment on its debt through earnings—it’s at all-time-high levels,” Contopoulos said. “And this is why companies default, because they can’t pay interest expense.”
Bu-bu-bu-bu- wait though! Isn't junk debt about to collapse because people are selling it? Don't things collapse when people sell them? What about the lack of liquidity in the junk market?

People bid-smashing something into an illiquid market drives prices down. But if there is a fundamental underpinning to the security's pricing, all that does is give buyers a bargain price.


Some Friday morning news


Markets and futures puked overnight on "Obama announces airstrikes in Iraq".

In reality, Obama said (and I watched him say it) that he's authorized airstrikes in the future if IS advances on Erbil or moves against American embassy staff.

Typical frickin' hyperbolic press.

Anyway, I've since checked the US equity futures and they're green on the day right now. Does that create follow-through? After all, it means someone is buying, no? And really, all the selling has been simply because everyone has been selling because they expect everyone else to start selling, right?

What a bunch of whiners. BTFD.

Here's the news:

FT Alphaville - BTFD. Except that's not what BAML said. They said
let’s face it, it’s a mid-August Friday and the pool of dip-buyers is too small to cope with the army of risk-reducers.
Then again, BAML only revised their end of year 10Y yield target from 3.5% to 3.1%, so I wouldn't put much faith in their analysis.

Calculated Risk - hotel occupancy up 4.5% yoy. That's positive economic data. I surmise that you should react by puking all your stocks and hiding in cash.

Reuters - Modi sticks to failed recipe in inflation fight. Like I said, India doesn't get fixed overnight. Modi can't just wave the Holy Handbag of Margaret Thatcher and fix things: for example, he needs to invest $9B in cold storage and refrigeration logistics. Um, which also requires roads.

Reuters - monsoon outlook improves. The overall shortfall is down to 18%. It's still not good, but at least it's not disastrous anymore, and maybe late planting can rescue the farmers. Good for gold? Or at least not as disastrous as a couple weeks ago?


Friday videos - The Telescopes


Here's another video by the Telescopes:





Thursday, August 7, 2014

JUNK BOND COLLAPSE WILL DESTROY AMERICAN ECONOMY, USHER IN NEW DARK AGE, MAKE BABY JESUS CRY: here's what you need to know


Josh Brown's Twitter - OMG $7B weekly outflow in junk bond funds the largest EVARRR.

So I googled for a few seconds and came across a stat that said the US had $180B in junk bond issuance in 1H14 alone.

Duh Economist says there's $1.7 trillion in high-yield debt altogether or something.

So $7B is a fart in the hurricane.

But that doesn't matter, because these two charts show the same shit has happened every single fucking year around this time:



Both of those show higher volumes in 2013 than this year, btw, so I dunno where they're getting their stats from. And yet no fucking asteroid ever hit us in 2013.

But even those two charts don't matter because the fact is, if this is being carried on that fucking Russian propaganda site Zerohedge, and on that click-whoring site Business Insider, then it's not fucking news.

Now why don't you all fuck off and let me get back to my drinking.


Two newsbits


BI - David Zervos asks why we use the word "correction"? I am always happy to carry a Business Insider article from Mamta Badkar. She's the best one working there. Here's a quote:
On Friday, we learned that the U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in July. This number missed estimates but Zervos points out that the three-month, six-month, and 12-month moving averages are 245,000, 244,000 and 214,000. "This is an achievement, not a problem," he writes.

We also learned that the U.S. economy expanded 4% in the second quarter and the FOMC's language barely changed.

"Sounds like risk asset bliss right?" asks Zervos in the note, which is titled 'Why do we call these corrections'.

"But the markets are reacting to this good fortune as if someone threw a Baby Ruth in the swimming pool," he says.
So quit piddling your panties, Barry, and buy the fucking dip.


der Spargel - about all the bullshit lies from Donetsk. I don't need to comment, except that Mish is a fucking clown who's being played for a gullible fool by Russian agents like Zerohedge:
Yet again, Putin repeated his allegation that "neo-fascist, fundamentalist forces had used arms to seize power in Kiev." He went on to describe the separatists as a "part of the population" that disagrees with the developments in Ukraine.

The disgruntled segment of the Ukrainian population that Putin refers to is represented near Grabovo by the woman in the summer dress and the 10 heavily armed men of the "People's Republic," who, while claiming to be protecting OSCE staff, are more likely present to keep watch over them. The armed men are wearing brand new camouflage uniforms with patches that read "Sevastopol, City of Heroes," and "The Crimean Spring." One, a young man with a headband and long hair holding a Kalashnikov in his hands and carrying a pistol in his waist belt, tells a Russian television team that he's also from Moscow. When asked where, he says he's from the city's Cheryomushki district. When asked what he does there, he responds by saying he sings in the church choir -- and he has the voice and looks to back it up. He means it seriously. But then he adds, "I'm here voluntarily."

He's just as Ukrainian as Alexander Borodai, the self-proclaimed prime minister of the "People's Republic of Donetsk" who also hails from Moscow. When Borodai handed MH 17's flight recorder over to the Malaysia Airlines experts, they referred to him as "your excellency," just to play it safe. For some time now, it has been leaders from Moscow and not local forces who have been calling the shots in the separatist republic. It's a subject that neither Putin nor the Russian media have shown much interest in addressing. Instead, the public defamation of Ukraine by Russia has reached new heights in the wake of the MH 17 crash.
and
The separatists and Moscow alike have indignantly denied that a Buk surface-to-air missile shot MH 17 down. They have also vehemently denied that rebels could even have been in possession of the air defense system. They claim that evidence in the form of photos and recordings of conversations have been fabricated by the Ukrainians and the Americans.

But on Wednesday, Alexander Khodakovsky, a rebel leader in Donetsk and commander of the notorious Vostok battalion, told Reuters that rebels did in fact possess the Buk missile system and that it could have come from Russia. Khodakovsky later retracted his statements, but the recording of the interview shows that it is in fact precisely what he said.
Then again, maybe der Spiegel is part of the conspiracy to discredit Mother Russia.


Let me whip out my junk for you


Here's a pic of my junk:


Maybe it's more impressive if you back up and look at it from further away:



The last two times we had a JNK correction (every year in the early summer like clockwork) there was a lot more volume than this. Then again, people were more worried about things that might have some real economic importance (US government shutdown, Eurozone collapse).

This time people are worried about dumb shit like Russia not buying fruit, or Israel and Hamas going on their yearly killing spree. Or the US economy recovering for fuck's sake like that's a bad thing.

Seriously. People have already quit talking about the plane getting shot down over the Ukraine.

So the question is whether this is just a bounce to the EMA before a continued downtrend, or whether that drop last week was a bottom and we can get back to acting intelligently.


Wednesday, August 6, 2014

WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET COLLAPSE HAS BEGUN: here's what you need to know


Oh noes!

The Guardian - West Antarctic ice sheet collapse has already begun!

JPL - West Antarctic glacier loss appears unstoppable!

The Guardian - West Antarctic ice sheet collapse could drown Middle East and Asia crops!


Um, wait.

Here's the abstract of the paper that I guarantee you nobody has read:

Resting atop a deep marine basin, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered prone to instability. Using a numerical model, we investigated the sensitivity of Thwaites Glacier to ocean melt and whether its unstable retreat is already under way. Our model reproduces observed losses when forced with ocean melt comparable to estimates. Simulated losses are moderate (<0.25 mm per year at sea level) over the 21st century but generally increase thereafter. Except possibly for the lowest-melt scenario, the simulations indicate that early-stage collapse has begun. Less certain is the time scale, with the onset of rapid (>1 mm per year of sea-level rise) collapse in the different simulations within the range of 200 to 900 years.

So...

So you're saying I don't even have to be able to outrun it.

0.25mm/yr equals one inch for this century, and I don't even intend to live that long.

There must be some magical panty-piddling drug that's hit the water supply in the last week.


IWM turning to outperform SPY


One positive takeaway from yesterday is that the R2K did one heck of a lot better than the S&P 500.

And it is continuing today, with .INX up 0.37% while IWM is up 0.92%.

In fact, I find the ratio chart interesting:


If the ratio has bottomed, the overall US market should be about to pop back up. I mean, small-cap is just large-cap on steroids, right?

Then again, maybe this is turning because large-cap is getting negative news from Europe, while maybe small-cap is more US-facing.

Let's see what happens.


gold and silver - divergent charts?!?!?!


It's still only AM, but this is weird and caught my attention:


That's a strong and encouraging move this AM from gold - it's broken above its short-term EMA and the Bollinger mean.




But at the same time the silver chart still royally stinks.

So I'll leave this alone for now til either price or volume convince me there's something more to this.


Yesterday's Bespoke closing commentary: right, that's it, I'm subscribing.


I've been pleasantly free of all paid newsletter subscriptions for maybe a year now, and I've enjoyed it. Frankly, most of it is a distraction, and I've since learned the value of simplicity and a clear head.

But then I see this from Bespoke and I just have to act:

Bespoke - closer commentary for Aug 5. Wherein we get this shining gem of perspective:
US equities sold off aggressively today after….nothing, really. There was no credible catalyst for the lightning quick move down from 1930 on the S&P 500 at 1:30 PM to 1917 at 1:44 PM and eventually the lows of the day at 1913 around 2:10 PM. The moves today were disorderly, choppy, and didn’t feel sensible to us; not to say that the market ought to have been higher today, or that it ought to have been down less. Rather, we were surprised at how markets were moving all day today, right from the start.
The last time I subscribed to them, a few years ago, I had no use for their special stock screening services or much of their other data. But I always got my money's worth from paying attention to their unbelievably calm, measured, sensible broad market commentary. It was an invaluable counterpoint to the hyperbolic doom-porn being spread about in the press - this was during the early US recovery, in the runup to the Euro disaster, so there was a lot of hyperbole to combat.

These guys have a "model portfolio" which has handily beat the S&P over the past couple years, so their talk is obviously more than bravado; they do actually know how to make money.

So when I get a chance I think I'll sub to their service again ASAP.


Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Short vix keeps me up at night


What keeps me up at night? Shorting $VIX.

Here's why:


Shorting volatility has been a stupidly winning trade for basically ever. We're talking 6-8 times the profit in the SPY over pretty nearly any timeframe you wish to mention.

I don't know exactly what shorting Vix means from a mechanical standpoint, or why it should outperform the underling equities. Maybe it's just an artefact of rolling over? Maybe rolling your short from one contract to the next automatically makes you a profit?

Or maybe Vix's typical market-open move is to gap up (I dunno if it is), thus making you money as it goes back down from the leveraging point through the day?

Or maybe, while the ETF is called a short VIX ETF, what it's really doing is shorting the time premium? In effect that'd mean collecting rent from people who are long the options, right?

I dunno what XIV (or HVI) does, and that keeps me up at night.

Because you can ask "Why would you buy SPY when you can buy XIV?" And when you ask that, it gets frickin' scary.

An efficient market is supposed to arb away all alpha, right?

So in an ideally efficient market, XIV should make the same money for me as SPY.

That it doesn't means either that

1. there's not enough people shorting volatility yet

2. there's an underlying extreme risk in shorting $VIX that a XIV buyer is being paid a premium for

3. maybe in the ideally efficient environment we'd have a much lower volatility premium

4. maybe XIV is mixing the volatility premium with the time premium, and it's the time premium that the market has wrong.

Or maybe something else; those are just ideas off the top of my head. I really have no clue beyond the faintest understanding of what $VIX and volatility are and what short ETFs do.

Now, maybe shorting $VIX works because the equity market uses a rational (I guess financial) discount rate, while volatility premium is an artefact of the human psychological discount rate, which is one hell of a lot higher. You're basically arbing between rationality and emotion. If that's all it is, then I'd expect that remains a winning trade for a long time.

But if that's not it, if there's something else, then it gets scary.

Because from the little I know, the market never had a significant arb mechanism between equity prices and volatility premium, and with the new synthetic ETFs it does.

If XIV performance were to decay to the point where it matched SPY performance, that might demand a massive change in option pricing, and god knows if the market (and the robots who populate it) would have any clue what they're supposed to do when that move started happening.

That frickin' scares me.

Oh well, back to stacking bullion and canned tuna I guess....


August 2011 - it was the age of silly predictions


I'm not going to provide a link, cos frankly I still like the guy and I think he's probably learned a lot in the intervening 3 years.

But here's a prediction from a paid junior gold newsletter writer, from back on 15 August 2011:
The various conventional equities not only have to repair significant short-term damage but in the process they face multi-year resistance. Precious metals shares do not have that short-term damage and have already surpassed and successfully retested that multi-year resistance. So what will happen in the next six months as precious metals equities make new highs, Gold is at $2000, Silver at $50 and the average person is looking at their stocks going nowhere?

The next six to nine months should set the table for the beginnings of a bubble in precious metals. Throughout this bull market, other markets have performed well enough at times which has diverted investors attention and capital away from precious metals. With conventional equities fading, major concerns with bonds and relative strength in precious metals, the tables are set for the mining shares over the next few years.
That was on 15 August 2011.

So what did happen in the next 6 months? Did PM equities make new highs, gold hit $2000, silver $50, and the average person see their stocks go nowhere?


PM equities dove over 20% after this was written, at one point registering a >35% drawdown. It got worse later, of course.

To its credit, gold remained relatively steady over the next 6 months. Which is nevertheless still a far cry from $2000 gold, and nothing like a bubble. Sometime after that, of course, gold crashed. Silver never saw $50 again.

SPY did see a 5% drawdown after this was written. But then it spent the next 6 months gaining 15%.

And were the "tables [...] set for the mining shares over the next few years"?


Um... does a 70% decline count? Is this the table you're talking about?



To his credit, he is a good guy. He was just hanging around goldbugs and ignorant newsletter writers too much, and got infected with a lot of their ideas. Which still serves as a warning. No matter how smart you are, always practice good information hygiene: never ever ever let other people's half-baked illogical ideas into your head. Never ever even let them pop up on your screen.

Nobody knows everything, nobody even knows very much of anything. But it's damn easy to learn how to spot things that aren't worth knowing. Avoid those and you'll avoid a lot of misleading politically-motivated bullshit. And the biggest of these baseless, misleading dogturds of quasiknowledge is Austrian/Randroid/Republican "economics". Ignore that and you'll profit from it.

And for the love of god please quit thinking that your favourite goldbug newsletter writer has the slightest clue about anything at all. Especially about economics.


How often is Bob Hoye stupendously wrong? It's more likely than you think


Someone searched my blog for Bob Hoye today.

It got me to searching for old Hoye predictions.

Check it out:

Safe Haven - Pivotal Events 22 Sep 2010. Quote:
Our April 22nd Pivot included our Checklist For A Top and concluded the best was in for the big rebound.

Wrap: The stock market seems to be enjoying the September sunshine and this week could conclude the move. The DX as well as the gold/silver ratio are indicating a change to adversity, and Ross notes that slipping below S&P 1115 would set the next tradable decline. Adversity could be tempered by the possibility of a significant set-back to Washington's radicals.
He's a bit incomprehensible, but it really does seem there that Hoye called a top in the market.

Well? Since then how has Hoye's call done?


Looks like his top call sucked. Unless of course by "top" you mean "the US equity market will never be this low ever again in the history of mankind, and in fact over the next four years we'll see an 80% gain".

I found another, earlier post of his where he was calling a top in April 2009; but I won't even waste your time. The only reason I'd go into that earlier, equally stupid call would be to illustrate that Hoye doesn't even learn from his incredibly bad calls.


silver is plummeting, so obviously that means economic contraction


Silver is droppin' bad!


And when silver goes down more than gold, the GSR goes up just because division of a numerator by a denominator works that way:


And when the GSR goes up that means imminent economic correction, because both wharrgarbl and potato.

Let's just ignore the weekly ratio chart which is doing nothing interesting at all:


Let's especially ignore the embarrassing fact that three years of an uptrend in the GSR has coincided with something like a 70% gain in the S&P 500. Wow holy corrective environment for asset markets, eh Batman?

The gold-silver ratio is an utterly meaningless made-up indicator. Don't waste your time with it.


Krugman illustrates why professors should read outside their core competency



Krugginator - the anti-intellectual attack on Neil deGrasse Tyson.

The Nazi Review - Neel is a fag cuz hes smrt.

Yes, Krugs, the right wing hates intelligent people because the right-wing political program is based on ignorance and hatred of science.

Then again, they also hate NDT because he's spent the past few months trolling them on Cosmos, making fun of evolution deniers and other mud-hut stone-age flat-earth idiots.

But most centrally, the American right-wing is a populist authoritarian movement, and populist authoritarians have always used anti-intellectualism to round up support among the peasant classes.

Sociology is the key to understanding otherwise-incomprehensible ignorance, so how's about I point you towards an article on the topic to get you started:

Wikipedia - anti-intellectualism.


IMPENDING JUNK BOND COLLAPSE: here's what happened the last 2 times junk went down


OMG IMPENDING JUNK BOND COLLAPSE:


OMG IZ HORBL WEALLGONNADIE

Um... but if you switch your goddamn chart perspective to weekly, you might see something like this:


Seems something of the same magnitude happened in May 2012 and June 2013 as well. But yet the market recovered and kept going up.

If you're following a commentator who has failed to switch his junk chart perspective to weekly, and who therefore is braying about how today is the end of junk bonds or otherwise even remotely significant, especially if they're blathering that OMG the junk market is too illiquid to sustain this outflow, then for your own future investment performance you might want to perform the following procedure:

1. unsubscribe from them
2. delete all bookmarks pointing to them
3. edit your computer's hosts file to set their website to 0.0.0.0 so you can never access their website again, even by mistake
4. install an app in your browser that changes any mention of the person's website to "clown who freaks out over regular yearly occurrences".


Some morning reads


Here's a tiny bit of morning news to get you going:

Liz Ann Sonders - summer void. Stocks should continue going up in the medium to longer term, but everyone's on vacation now so don't be surprised if the market does stupid things with the interns and robots in charge.

Calculated Risk - home inventory is increasing and that's okay. He's not concerned. Quote:
Sometimes rising inventory is a sign of trouble (I was pointing to increasing inventory in 2005 as a sign that the bubble was ending), but now inventory is so low that an increase is probably a positive.

This increase in inventory will also slow house price increases - the recent rate of increase in some areas was unsustainable - and getting inventory back to normal levels is another step towards a healthier market.

Also - another step towards normal is the continuing decline in the number of properties in foreclosure and the downward trend for mortgage delinquencies.
So quit piddling yourself about home inventories.

Bespoke - plenty of oversold Dow stocks. Note though that the $DJI is a bullshit index. Come on, they only just got around to booting out Alcoa. But is there a reason MMM should be trading at -3SD? Or XOM at -2.5SD? I mean, other than people dumping dividend stocks to rotate into growth?


Monday, August 4, 2014

Some news for the afternoon


Here's some newsbits:

Calculated Risk - US prime working age population is growing again. Don't fight demographics.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - I've had a nice weekend and I'm not pissing my panties anymore. He explains the sudden volatility as a spate in port rebalancing, which is funny that it didn't happen at the end of June but whatever. At least it's not the usual lamestream media explanation of "wharrgarbl Russia wharrgarbl wages wharrgarbl impending collapse".

Chronicles of Brodrick - 3 bullshit facts for precious metals and miners. Oh Sean, it's so sweet of you to follow my lead and watch India for gold price cues while the rest of the Wall Street Whiteys still believe gold has something to do with the USA. However:
By the way, the el Nino threat to India's monsoons has been downgraded ... the monsoons are hitting hard enough to cause deadly landslides ... and India has drought-resistant rice now anyway, So, while rainfall across northern India is about 33% below the normal level for this point in the monsoon season, maybe we shouldn't measure this year by previous years. Just sayin'.
1. A lot of the damage has already been done. You can't sow crops without rain, and sowing season is past. India will try to get late-planting seed out to farmers to sow late, but their yields are poor.

2. There's always a landslide somewhere in India. (Similarly, there's always a drought somewhere in India.) India is a large country, so this means nothing for overall farm productivity across the country.

3. You're assuming India has 20th-century (or even 19th-century) logistics. Fact is, most farmers don't get access to the good seed because they're 200 miles away from anything you would ever consider calling a "road".

4. When rainfall is several points below 90% you start to see a drop-off in productivity. Go look at the data.


That's good enough for me


Here's a Monday video for all you Libertarian Objectivists and teatard goldbugs:




gold, silver, juniors chart catch-up


Charts!


And gold continues its downtrend because the monsoon ain't doing so good in India this year. Seasonality is kaput. Thanks for playing, Whitey.



Silver is still moving down, will begin filling the "gap" soon, only question is where it might be able to find support.



The miners are still stronger than their metals, but the question remains "for how long?"


Here's Laurence Fishburne, from 1971, singing on the Electric Company


I never knew Laurence Fishburne was such a good singer.



BTW I really loved him in Iron Man 2.

Sunday, August 3, 2014

While IKN posts a chick looking at 89 dicks, I post Samuel L. Jackson not being Laurence Fishburne


IKN - Janet looks at 89 dicks.

It wasn't funny.

What's funny is Samuel L. Jackson being mistaken on TV for Laurence Fishburne:



By the way, I loved Samuel L. Jackson in The Shawshank Redemption.


The Cookie Monster's exploration panel


Cookie says:
Minerals exploration is a tough business, discovery much tougher, but advancing a real deposit through the various hurdles of geology, politics, and the market is the real test and rarely successful. At the recently concluded Sprott Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium I had the opportunity to chair a stellar panel on that subject. We covered a lot of ground, and there are some real insights in the discussion that anyone interested in exploration and junior mining stocks should appreciate. The video is in three segments, totaling about 36 minutes, and is linked here. We invite you to take the time.
So here's Cookie with Eira Thomas, Miles Thompson and Tim Coughlin:









This week's most popular posts


Here's this week's most popular posts on the blarg:

1. Waiting for the Faber signal. Either a lot of Faber fans, or a lot of people who laugh at him who agree with me that the market hits a bottom the second that Faber calls "dooooom" in Business Insider.

2. EBOLA OUTBREAK IN AMERICA IMMINENT: here's what you need to wharrgarbl. For best blogging results, make sure to use both capslock and fearmongering. Another lesson I learned from Joe Weisenthal.

3. Sarah McLachlan and Frank Giustra. Because that's all we have for famous people in this country, I guess.

4. New theory about gold and miner charts. Dunno why a serious post was popular this week. Maybe because people were reading the comments section?

5. Some noontime noos. It was probably only popular cos the market was puking that day and so people decided to turn to crazy-people blogs for explanations of why.


Two Sunday newsbits


Two things for Sunday:

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. 2014H2 GDP should be less strong than Q2, he thinks. I guess you could expect that if Q2 was full of economic activity postponed from the cold Q1.

Data Dive - wages are stagnant. Wait a sec, didn't we just get a data release this week that said wages had inscrutably skyrocketed, as if everyone in the US got a raise in the past couple weeks? And didn't everyone puke stocks on the news?