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Friday, June 6, 2014

The story of Not the Nine O'clock News


In case you haven't been watching, the UK has produced pretty much nothing of value in the past ten years. If BSE had gone airborne, mutated into the rage virus and killed everyone in England in 2005, there are only three things that the world would be the lesser for not having:

1. the sweet and cuddly Victoria Hesketh,

2. season 1 of Skins, or at least those parts of it with hyperfemme uberfatale Cassie Ainsworth:


3. the syphilis that eventually kills Thom Fucking Yorke, or at least makes him stumble in front of a bus filled with children.

Perhaps because of this, the UK has seen an onslaught of "retrospective documentaries" these past few years. Lots of programming space to fill, between all the repeats of QI.

I just happened across this one about Not the Nine O'clock News, and I thought I'd share it with you:



If that doesn't interest you, here's some more Cassie Ainsworth:




Our new sweetheart Vanessa Collette interviews three guys


As promised, here's Vanessa Collette's interviews.

Lawrence Roulston points out that there has indeed been money coming into the junior market, and it's been in the form of buyouts:



And Roulston's finally joined the boat on putting the boots to crooked exploreco management. And he's not scared about China.

Brent Cook says you may as well go hang out in the Caribbean for the next 6 months, the whole market is still dead and nobody's interested in coming back:



Too bad you can't get into Cuba, Cookie! A week in Varadero all-inclusive is something like $300! And "all-inclusive" means booze too! Sure must suck to live in a country that'll throw you in jail for doing business with Cubans, eh?

John Kaiser says blah blah scandium:



Some evening news


Some more stuff:

Bespoke - financial sector default risk plummets. If the crash is imminent, why are CDSes priced so low?

Reuters - monsoon rains reach Kerala coast. Tamblyn's away, my boys!

New Deal Demoncrat - Joe Wiesenthal needs to start reading my weekly indicators. Quote:
I guess Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider must have stopped reading my Weekly Indicators columns, because otherwise he would have known two weekends ago that Gallup personal spending is at its highest since 2008, instead of posting it on Monday, and he would have known about the Spring spring two months ago instead of yesterday.

[...]

So BI readers could have found out about the downturn in corporate profits, and why it isn't a big deal yet, last week instead of waiting to Hussman and Shedlock yesterday to claim it as a harbinger of DOOOOOM!

Cue the Gregory House "oh snap" animated gif!


BTW NDD, Joey the Weasel doesn't need to read anything. He's always going to post clowns like Hussman and Shedlock, because he's selling clicks, not actionable information.


Michael Shaoul on BNN


BNN - Michael Shaoul interview. He thinks the economically sensitive section of the equities market has some legs and can go higher. But he also thinks inflation will start to pick up in the US, because there's less slack than people think. As for ex-US, he would pick Japan over Europe because European shares have been chased too far.

Strangely, he thinks some EMs may be bottoming.


GODWIN'S LAW OF TIME TRAVEL: here's what you need to know


Chew on this!

TV Tropes - As the amount of time-traveling you do increases, the probability of Hitler winning World War II approaches one. And see also

TV Tropes - Hitler's time travel exemption act.

Even if it's possible to travel back in time to kill someone, it might be specifically impossible to travel back in time to kill Hitler. As noted, he survived 42 (aha!) real-life known assassination attempts; maybe that's every time traveller who has gone back in time to try to kill Hitler?

But wait! How could Hitler have become so unkillable? Well, maybe Hitler was a time traveller himself! Maybe every time he gets killed, the future Hitler reads how it happened in his history books and then goes back to rescue himself.

In fact, maybe future-Hitler is at war with the future-anti-Hitlers, but they've agreed to fight their battle in the past, in a sort of time-traveller's proxy war? In which case, maybe it's smart for us to just not get involved. After all, if the future-anti-Hitlers aren't able to kill Hitler, why do we think we ourselves would stand any chance of doing any better?

SMBC had an interesting take on this:

It turns out that the problem of poor people not having enough money is solved by giving them more money.


Vox - It turns out that the problem of poor people not having enough money is solved by giving them more money.

Simplified, and I already read about this months ago, some white people gave some poor Africans money with no strings attached. It turns out that the Africans bought goods and productive assets with their money, instead of blowing it all on booze and hookers.

Apparently poor people know exactly what they need to become less poor, but they can't get those things because those things require money, which they don't have, because they're poor.

And if you give poor people money, they will become less poor.

So why aren't we doing that?


Some Friday morning news


Here's all the info you need:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - with the S&P at all-time highs, I still feel the need to freak out. Josh, Bespoke pointed out years ago that volume always goes own when the market is going up. That's because the extra volume of people freaking out is absent. Don't be a pantywaist sissy: buy the S&P.

Bespoke - bullish sentiment edges higher. And yet:


it's still too low for a top. I bet we see 2000 before sentiment peaks.

FT beyond brics - EM liquidity, the danger stalking global markets. The author comes to an incompetent and silly conclusion, but the data is still worth pondering: the people holding EM debt are now left with no way to exit their positions.

Reuters - the southwest monsoon may arrive in 24 hours. And thus, the most important season for gold begins.

HuffPo - McDonalds now supports a minimum wage hike. I guess they realized Henry Ford was correct when he said he wouldn't stay in business if his own workers didn't make enough money to buy his products.

Friday videos: Josie and the Pussycats?!?


Here's Veruca Salt The Breeders Elastica Liz Phair the amazing Josie and the Pussycats:



It's taken 13 years, but wearing kitty ears has finally begun to catch on among the young ladies of today. Or at least it has on the tumblr pages I follow.


Thursday, June 5, 2014

Roger Ebert's best insults


HuffPo - Roger Ebert's best takedowns. Because sarcasm is a language that everyone should learn. At least because then you can better make fun of people who haven't bothered to learn it.




Hey, remember when weakness in the financials was a thing?


Hey, remember when weakness in the financial stocks was an indicator that the SPY's breakout was false?


There's your breakout in financials.


Shorting volatility has been very profitable for a long time. Maybe too long?


Here's the $VIX short ETF:


That there is some stunningly one-sided performance, Bruce. Especially since April. I mean look at that RSI.

Here's the weekly:



Even the weekly chart shows XIV going up >2SD. That's not something we normally see.

I have no clue how XIV is supposed to work; I do see that you can lose 75% of your money in weeks when a crisis develops (see August 2011), but if you can buy at bottoms it'll provide you with many multiples to SPY in profits.

So why aren't the hedgies all over this?

And does this have anything to do with the whole "collapse of volatility" thing? I mean, you can now short that volatility, right? So is $VIX down so low because it's being shorted?

Hard to figure this out.


Tommy Humphreys: either surprisingly witty or just writes in English bad


I'll go fish out the actual YouTube videos later, maybe, when I'm at home (work blocks YT, due to productivity or something). But here are some things Tommy Hump put up on his site:


CEO.ca - Laurence Roulston interviewed by the fabulously cute Vanessa Collette. Quote:
Roulston told his interviewer that the junior mining stock market is going to be low, albeit with quality projects receiving adequate finance, until retail investors come back into the sector and Roulston doesn’t see that happening for one or two more years.

CEO.ca - John Kaiser interviewed by the loveable and cuddly Vanessa Collette. Quote:
"Right now the glass is worse than half empty, it’s like everything is a failure before it begins.”

CEO.ca - Brent Cook interviewed by the effervescent, illuminous evening star that could only be Vanessa Collette. Here's the hilarious quote:
The rest of 2014 will be ugly, according to Mr. Cook, with 2015 and 2016 setting up to be more positive for the junior mining sector, simply because on that timeframe, majors need new deposits to mine badly.

And if there's one thing that gold miners know how to do, it's mine deposits badly. Amirite?


If you want to be bearish gold, here's what you want to see happen


If you want to be bearish gold and gold miners, the charts are setting up to either give you what you want or prove you wrong:


GDX bust through support on high volume last week. Since then it's slowly crawled back up to its EMA, but it's done so on declining volume, as if we're running out of people interested in bidding it back up. That looks bearflaggy to me, so a bear wants to see this flag break down.




GDXJ is the same. It should fail this retest of its EMA/gap fill, and drop like a stone, if the bearish case works.




Silver is trying to retest overhead resistance that got broken through last week. A failure means lower to go.

I'm agnostic, despite the volume warnings. The fact remains that gold died on OpEx; and as far as I'm concerned, that changes the character of what we've been seeing.

We'll see.


Some morning news


Some enchanted morning reading:


BI - Rosie explains to the dooooomers why there's zero chance of a recession. But I guess the dooooomers don't listen to him anymore, now that he's been compromised by the Lizard People.

By the way, New Deal Democrat is finally spelling DOOOOOM with the correct number of O's. Good work!


Mineweb - how this year's monsoon is shaping up. Let's listen to some Indians for their opinions about monsoons and gold:
"The Indian Meteorological Department has forecast that the monsoon is supposed to hit the Kerala coast on June 5. Though the margin of error has been fixed at plus or minus four days, and it implies that the monsoon could start on any date between June 1 and 9, there is no sign of rain in the vital area,'' said Manish Kedia, bullion retailer, adding that delayed monsoon could push up inflation, leaving little money in the hands of consumers to buy gold.

[...]

"A good monsoon strengthens the rural consumption power. Gold sales in rural India are closely linked to monsoon, and good rains and a rich harvest boosts gold purchase by farmers,'' said Prithviraj Kothari of Riddhi Siddhi Bullions, a bullion retailer and export house.

Rural India still accounts for around 60% to 70% of gold sales in India. If monsoon is below normal this year, as has been predicted by scores of analysts and forecasters, gold demand will slow down, he said, mouthing the concerns of several jewellers and bullion dealers.

"The Indian economy is largely dependent on agriculture, a good harvest and more importantly a good monsoon. This entire cycle affects not only rural areas, but also the urban economy. Equities, real estate, precious metals, commodities, all are directly or indirectly affected by the monsoons,'' added Kothari.

He went on to say that higher crop yields imply higher incomes for farmers, which in turn lifts the demand for gold across the country.
Interesting... I don't see anything there about negative real US rates, or Treasury spreads, or USD strength.

Anyway, this year's monsoon season is starting to look like it's going to be bad. So feel free to ignore it entirely to focus on white people's problems.


Climateer Investing - $875 gold by end Q3. Wow! Pretty aggressive call there. I guess he expects a monsoon collapse to drive a worldwide liquidation? I've got a post scheduled for 30 September 2014 where we'll look at this prediction again and see how this turns out.


Guardian - four NYT columnists and Malcolm Gladwell get really high. It's good that they're making fun of Maureen Dowd.


Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Hey, remember when QQQ weakness was a portent of something or other?


Hey, remember when the horrible weakness in the Nasdaq was proof that the US market was topping? Y'know, a crash was imminent, all that jazz?


Whatever happened with that?

You know, that QQQ weakness that was ironclad fucking proof that the SPY was grossly overvalued, and its time would come, and with that the US markets would collapse?



So have you unsubscribed from all the worthless blogs and newsletters that blathered on about the weakness in the Nasdaq? Y'know, the guys who denied there was a simple internal rotation going on, that really the weakness was indicative of a top?

Because if they got that fucking call wrong you can just ignore them from now on.


Some afternoon reading


Here are some more articles to waste your time with when you could just buy SPY and go away for the next ten years:


Bespoke - the volatility collapse story has become such a fad that we're even going to talk about it in the context of the cost of hiring dry bulk carriers. Stick a fork in it, it's overplayed now.


FT Alphaville - the US auto fleet is getting old. Sure... then again, older people have older cars. I'd like to see some demographic analysis, please.


Mining.com - gold vs us real rates chart shows a rally should come. Sure, if only gold demand had anything whatsoever to do with US real rates and bond yields aren't expected to rise in a secular lowflation environment.


IKN - The Clive and friends puked >3M shares right before announcing the Papillon deal. Therefore they're evil, unlike Lex Blackthor who never ever sold Rio Alto shares at $5.


Mining.com - Goldman Sachs buys Ecuador's bullion, dump into market imminent. What was that I was just saying earlier today about EM central banks being pressured to sell their gold? 
George Gero, a vice president and precious-metals strategist in New York at RBC Capital Markets told Bloomberg: "It’s really a puzzling transaction. The idea that there was a large sale and you don’t know when it will come out into the market is probably pressuring prices."
Yeah... 19.4 tons sold into the market? Ooo, that'll really cave the price. Ooo. Especially if Goldman Sachs forgets to hedge the sale, which you'd not expect them to do given they're in the business of making money. Try again George.


Mineweb - new Ollachea DFS boosts outlook for IRL. Wow! The stock must have really popped on this news!:


Er... wow! I guess! Um... 40,000 shares? Um... wow!


Gawker - Maureen Dowd is a lightweight who can't handle her dope, therefore it should be banned in the USA. Seriously, who the fuck cares what Maureen Dowd says? Is she supposed to be an expert at something?

John Brown also makes an incorrect assumption


Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - let's repost a Dilbert cartoon and call it content. Quote:


Huh? Engineers never party at university?

They're the most obnoxious drunks of them all.


on Ritholtz and gold, and Ritholtz being wrong


Ritholtz - is this the end of the secular gold bull?

#1, Barry, quit posting headlines in the form of a question. It makes you look like an idiot who doesn't know what he's talking about.

#2, it's augur. The word "auger" which you used means (noun) a drill, or (verb) to drill. The word augur means to divine (tr) or portend (intr). Here is an auger:

Actually, only the spirally bit is an "auger"; though okay sure,
people sometimes call the entire tool an "auger" and the spirally
bit "the bit", but that's because they're thinking of it as a
drill. It's not a drill, it's an auger, because you're augering
holes in the ground with it.

You are augering holes with it and not drilling them because
my construction specification says that you're augering. If
you're "drilling", then you're not getting paid for it.

#3, let's go point by point:

Some morning news



Here's some morning reading:

Bloomberg View - volatility dies, hedge funds lose. Well, it's simple, isn't it? There's so much capital sloshing around out there that if someone finds a location in the market where they can outperform the S&P, that location will quickly become a fad and get over-run, until the advantage of being there is arbed away. I don't know exactly how you can prove it mathematically in the case of volatility, but it's just a case of trying to extend a basic principle of markets to a specific price within the market.


Bespoke - checkup on S&P sector breadth. Hey, remember just one week ago when some guy with a newsletter was telling you that the drop in participation was an indicator of topping?


Wow! What a difference one single fucking week makes, eh?


FT beyond brics - now for the hard part: India's infrastructure challenge. I know it'll be "easy" to fix, as Jim O'Neill says; I just don't see where India will get the capital to do it, if the secular bull in EMs is over. Everyone's still assuming India will have the necessary access to capital.


Reuters - Qingdao stops metal shipments due to missing collateral. This could become very scary, or it could end in a big surge of imports to cover the empty positions. Since ZeroHedge has already taken the "very scary" side of the bet by linking to this article and adding their own Soviet-sponsored wharrgarbl, I'll take the other side of that bet, Alex.

Every word in Star Wars, arranged alphabetically


Here is every word spoken in Star Wars, arranged alphabetically.

In a video.



Your argument is invalid.


Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Here is a kitty playing ping pong. Your argument is invalid.


Here:




Hey, remember when Max Keiser asked the world to buy silver and crash JP Morgan?


Hey, remember when Soviet stooge Max Keiser started his campaign to get the world to buy silver, thus crashing the evil shorts at JP Morgan?

Economic Voice - Keiser tells the world to buy silver, crash JP Morgan.

Rightpundits.com - crash JP Morgan, buy silver, says Max Keiser.

Max Keiser - crash JP Morgan, buy silver, says me.

Do you recall JP Morgan going bankrupt when silver went temporarily to $50? No?

And yet bloggers put this clown on their blogrolls.


Well, Bob Moriarty is calling a bottom, anyway


321gold - correction ending soon. Here's Bob Moriarty's opinion:
I’ve mentioned many times before the value of being able to measure investor sentiment using the ratio of the XAU over gold. I know of no one who has ever made a fortune doing squiggles on a chart. If the value of the dollar changes every single day, the value today cannot be the same as the value yesterday or 34 years ago so you are treating a curved value as a fixed value. If charting worked, we would all be rich. Likewise with fundamentals. At every top there are 100 fundamental reasons why you should buy. And at every bottom there are 100 fundamental reasons to sell. That’s what makes tops and bottoms.

Markets move on the psychology of investors. Investors are a herd and when they all want to buy, you should sell to them. When they all want to sell, you should buy from them. Right now investors hate gold. When you have major banks telling people “don’t be tempted to buy gold mining stocks” when they are at the lowest prices relative to gold in history, you are seeing a giant buy signal.
Well, at least he gets a very sensible dig in at the technical analysts.

And it is a good point about treating a variable value as a fixed value.

And then he goes on to explain to you why True Gold popped on 2 million shares today - cos he wrote about them. Here I thought it was something to do with all the buyout excitement we're seeing these days.


Um, wait... did the junior miner complex just bottom?

Four charts for your consideration:


Not like you can really see it at this scale, but DPM has turned up strongly, and it's a stock that's always been moved by bots and order manipulation.



Also not really perceptible at this scale, but why would LYD have turned above its EMA if gold is still going down?



TMM has really frickin' taken off. Why? Is gold expected to go up now?



Argonaut still seems to be on a strong move toward worthlessness, however.

Ignoring the weakness in AR, the upmoves in the junior world do seem a bit fishy to me right now. Unless perhaps it's from smart people realizing the breakdown in gold was entirely due to an opex smackdown.


Some morning reads, this time with real goldbug commentary!


Here's some stuff:

Liz Ann Sonders - on the pause in US housing. Good long article from a real analyst.

CEO.ca - more on The Clive buying Papillon. Apparently Brent Cook likes Papillon? So... this is a good deal, then? Or is it just a good deal for Cookie?

FP - Peter Koven on explorecos sucking™ and pot. With commentary from Stan Bharti and John Kaiser. Speaking of which... hey John, it would be neat to compile the data for all the financing deals since, say, 2011, and see what the rate of return was on those deals. Because, y'know, if the junior world in aggregate loses 90% of the money that capital invests in it, then damn right the industry is going to disappear.

Or perhaps be replaced by a state-run model like that in China.


It's official, The Clive has an incurable brain disease


Sigh....

Marketweird - B2Gold signs merger agreement with Papillon. Is this supposed to grow share value? Are shareholders being served by this, do you think?


Monday, June 2, 2014

Josie and the Pussycats: a documentary on Illuminati mind control?


This is funny. He doesn't even really talk much, he just shows you scenes from the movie.



I used to think this movie was dumb. But I'm going to watch it tonight.

gold down, copper up, because wharrgarbl


Here are some charts.


Gold has been -2SD down for days on end, on high volume. This is obviously because nobody in the world is going to buy physical gold ever again, and not because Wall Street Whitey is getting spooked out of his worthless paper position by an options expiry bodyslam.



Silver has been -2SD down for days on end. This is obviously because silver is money, not an industrial metal at all, and so Wall Street Whitey is going to dump his silver futures because he is embarrassed by his tiny white penis. I mean hell, look at that chart!



Because nobody is buying copper, and there's a gross oversupply of copper, and copper will collapse the second Chinese demand falls away, and that's why it's been in an uptrend for a couple months now.




Similar, nickel has been in a strong uptrend for the year, up 50% now, because it's an industrial metal unlike silver which is real physical money and the world is running out of nickel. I mean, there's only 130 million tons of it left in identified deposits, a significant minority of which are in New Caledonia and Australia who last I checked aren't at fucking war with the Ukraine.

It's all obvious if you just spend a few minutes thinking about it.


Justin Trudeau kicking out anti-abortion "Liberals"


The Canadian media is also having a lot of fun with the recent decision by Justin Trudeau to not allow non-incumbent Liberals to run in an election unless they're pro-choice.

Various Catholics are wading into the fray, screaming that Trudeau should be ex-communicated, and that he is committing a grave injustice against Christians.

Lemme 'splain something, even clearer than Junior did in the linked article above.

If you're elected into a government, your job is to legislate on behalf of all Canadians, not just those who agree with e.g. your religion.

So, in the case of a Catholic MP, your job is to pass laws that represent all Canadians, not just your stupid religion. There are Canadians who are members of other religions, and there are Canadians who are members of no religions, and you as an MP are supposed to be voting based on what is best for them, not what your own religion (supposedly) says (on those few days when you bother to obey it).

Under a pro-choice government, you as a Catholic have a right to follow your own ethical decisions, based on (the) religious teachings (you've decided not to ignore today), and not have an abortion. All Catholics in Canada presently have a right to not have an abortion. The same right is extended in our country to Protestants, Jews, Muslims, Buddhists, Jains, and everyone else.

But in Canada, we've also extended the right to all people (religious and non-religious) to make their own ethical decision on abortion. That has already been decided, it is law, and we're not going back on that.

What Junior basically is saying is that, as a Catholic, a politician has no right to enforce his (and it's always his) own ethical decisions on all citizens of the country if they're nothing more than religious dogma.

The Canadian government is not supposed to have any laws that are based on Catholic dogma, or those few parts of Catholic dogma that politicians believe in; that's because we're a secular country, not a Catholic country. If you want to live in a Catholic country, go to fucking Ireland.

So, if you're planning on running in the next election for the Liberals, Junior is totally cool with you being against abortion, as long as you vote in favour of citizens' freedom of choice.

Me personally? I'm against abortion. I'd never have an abortion, and I think it's unethical to have an abortion in most cases; but then again I don't have the girly parts to have an abortion so I accept that my opinion is moot. But I'm also in favour of other people having the right to make their own ethical decision, pursuant to the laws we already have on the books.

So basically, I'm anti-abortion and pro-choice, and maybe that's cos I'm not as much of an asshole as your average fundamentalist wackaloon.

It's so damn disgusting to see this fundamental tenet of democracy completely ignored by the entire supposedly-democratic world: a government is supposed to legislate on behalf of all its citizens. Not just the ones who hold the same beliefs as the people in government.

Literally, this country is becoming grossly undemocratic, and it's mainly because of idiot right-wing fundamentalist buffoons who spread vicious anti-democratic, fascist bullshit about how any religious nutter lucky enough to win elections should be allowed to legislate his fruitcake Nazi ethics for the whole country.

That is not democracy. We don't elect kings in democracy; we are supposed to elect servants. And if all people have the right to vote, then all people have the right to be served - not just those who voted for the winners. Ignorance of this is the beginning of fucking fascism.

As for Junior? I never had any respect for him before - I don't support anyone just cos I liked his daddy. But this hard stance by Justin Trudeau, against the arrogance of religious fundamentalists, has made me suspect that maybe this kid has inherited a nuanced intellectual understanding of fundamental democratic principles from his father. I'd rather see him in power than some cunt who wants to rule on behalf of a minority of the population, like Harper.


Some Monday morning news


Here's a cavalcade of thingies for your consideration:


BI - US consumer spending just hit a six-year high. I don't know how any clown with a newsletter can possibly call a top when data like this is staring him in the face. For god's sake, it's even made it onto Business Insider, how do you miss this?


BI - Ed Yardeni says Dow Theory is bullish. As above. How are new highs in the Transports bearish in any way whatsoever? Seriously, even a kindergarten dropout would see this. Please ask your local newsletter writer or blogger why he didn't see it.


Bloomberg - unstoppable bond market renders models useless. Apparently this is an insightful article, so read it if you want. Personally, I'm still sticking by my own theory that bond yields are going down because there's more money than there are peasants able to rent it. That's the upshot of the American 30-year war against labour.


BI - deflation in Germany. Yeah, but Germans want deflation. They worship deflation. So watch them not care.


Project Syndicate - Roubini on the great anti-capitalist backlash. He writes an op-ed on the economists' pop-culture topic of the day, which should both surprise nobody and interest nobody. And he proves himself a clueless dumbass by talking right past the real problem - it's not the victory of capitalism that the masses are rebelling against, but rather the victory of the plutocratic elite against redistributive policy and the rule of law.

Nouriel, when you reduce government spending, eliminate support programs, and institute policies to transfer trillions of dollars out of workers' pockets into the pockets of billionaire bankers, eventually the masses realize that they no longer are seeing a benefit from the system. Ultimately they will attack the system. First they will vote to attack the system, and when that's not sufficient they'll attack it directly.


FT beyond brics - Modi's challenges. To what extent is the economic outcome in India dependent on the secular bear market in EMs, instead of on whoever is leading the country? Modi can't prevail over gross secular trends, can he? When's the last time a neoliberal successfully fought the tide of a secular EM bear, increasing growth while reducing inflation? Neoliberal policies are probably needed in India, sure, but will Modi be able to do more than just treading water?


Mining.com - Warren Bevan sticks a fork in gold. Y'know, the problem with calling "gold $1000" based on charts is that 1) anybody can do TA, 2) if it's one thing TAs do well it's make a prediction and then change their mind the minute they're proven wrong, 3) gold went down on OpEx so I'd wait for follow-through before taking $1245 gold as indicative of a trend, and 4) people will need to sell physical gold to get it to $1000; you need a supply glut. Where is the gold to sell? Is he saying Western central banks are about to start dumping gold?

Absent a crop failure in India or a liquidity collapse in China, I just can't see $1000 gold. Hey, maybe it is possible, maybe I'm wrong; but I can't imagine a market mechanism that takes gold to $1000, other than a major crisis.

As far as his $700 gold call, that's even more unbelievable to me. To me, that price would mean the end of all gold mining. To get to $700, it would require the entire world - from Indian farmers to Indian temples to the US Federal Reserve to Chinese businessmen - deciding that gold isn't worth owning anymore.

Hey, maybe we could see that over the next 40-50 years: generational change could bring it about. But in an investing timeframe? I really don't see it.


Sunday, June 1, 2014

Short interview with Jeff McMurrich from Deepspace


So I was wondering whatever happened to this electronic group from Toronto called Deepspace, who did a couple really good early-trance-style songs back in the 90s, vaguely in the style of Legion of Green Men but a bit less freeform.

So I came across a short interview on Youtube with Deepspace's Jeff McMurrich, who now apparently owns a studio in Kensington Market:



Perceptive quote:

"It's not the creative people that are wrong with the world. It's the people that aren't creative."


New Deal Democrat asks if you're going to pick up what he's throwin' down, bitch


New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators up at xe.com. But if you don't even want to follow the link, he gives a good bitch-slap to the doomers:

We got the revised Q1 GDP report on Thursday, and since then the Doomers have been pouring out the woodwork with stories of their discoveries that it is supposedly a really big deal.

Naked Capitalism has been especially noteworthy (and not in a good way) for showcasing these Doomer-discoveries-come-latelies. The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard came out with the news that a heretofore unknown money supply measure called "Divisia M4" showed that the US economy was DOOOOOOMED. A particularly incoherent rant showed up at The Automatic Earth, where it was argued (although that word conveys a basic rationality not present in the article) that the second quarter wasn't showing a rebound because -- just look at that bad January and February data!!!! Ummm, okay. (Hint: when even the Pied Piper of Doom doesn't cite a blog anymore, that's a pretty good sign that showcasing it is conceding the argument in advance).

To the contrary, if you were reading my Weekly Indicator columns, you saw the parade of poor data in real time in January and February, and have been watching its strong rebound since mid-March. Don't bother looking for the Doomer concessions when revised Q2 GDP data is released in three months. It won't be there.

1. Correct. Follow NDD's weekly indicators posts and you'll know what's really happening to the US economy in real time, not months later. If you're not reading his weekly summary then really you're trying to remain purposefully ignorant.

2. Good for NDD: don't just shame them, name them. People need to know who's not worth reading.

3. Hey NDD: there are 5 Os in DOOOOOM. Seriously, we're trying to make this word Googleable, and an incorrect number of Os is counter-productive.