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Friday, March 14, 2014

RADIOHEAD SUCKS: here's what you need to know


Something Awful - Radiohead sucks. A hilarious read about how Radiohead sucks. Here's just the lede:

Radiohead is the sort of dopily dissonant, synth-mashing, warbling, British crap that passes for cutting edge these days. Their Internet fans are legion, their pretentious and egotistically dull albums continue to sell, and the people who malign the good name of critics by calling themselves as much incessantly drool over Radiohead like they've got platinum bars shooting out of their jocks.

He starts with an overview:

What it boils down to is this: with Radiohead, it's all about proving something. Apparently Thom Yorke has something akin to Small Man Syndrome, except in his case it's more like Small Incredibly Fucking Creepy Disfigured Gnome Syndrome. First of all, he had to prove that an ethereal fetus-fairy with an heroically obtuse haircut could make it onto the pop-charts. He did so, of course, with "Creep," a song so affectingly pathetic that it could make even someone as nerdy as you feel like you had someone to laugh at. It found a substantial audience among teenage girls who needed someone to feel sorry for, teenage boys who wanted to nail said teenage girls (or who were captivated by those exiting two seconds before the chorus where it sounds like Johnny Greenwood drops his guitar), and denim-jacketed indie-loving radio DJs who are always in search of the "Next Bleak Thing." As for the album that spawned this single, “Pablo Honey,” let’s just say that even with the current Radiohead craze in full effect, no revisionist guitar-band historians have dared to step up and claim that it was any good. It’s best to just pretend it didn’t exist.

The later years weren't spared:

Their next move, to their credit, was a shrewd one. They were well aware that even their most glassy-eyed followers were itching for some kind of a return to form. The fans found it hard to articulate what exactly they were missing when they listened to Kid A and Amnesiac; what it was, of course, was the fact that all the tunes had been cleverly removed. Radiohead had made two albums that superficially resembled music but really weren't music at all. So, in order to drum up public interest in their next album, they made the outlandish claim it would contain actual tunes and, if we were lucky, perhaps guitar playing which conformed to some sort of pattern. The carrot at the end of this stick was kept tantalizingly out of reach, of course. "Hail to the Thief" (a title which they bought off of Don Henley for a copy of Stupid White Men and a new cardboard box) was released this year directly into the cable modems of a million greasy social deviants who loved it almost enough to buy it. The album contains, when we're lucky, primitive, one-celled predecessors of tunes that with a few million years of evolution might be able to fill up a 5 second cell phone ringtone. They’ve given you just enough of what you want that you’ll buy their next record, but luckily for them they’ve set the delightful precedent that they can sell just as many records without having to write any actual songs.

In conclusion:

Radiohead, the kings nerdy, boring, tuneless rock music, are on top of the world. They’ve proven time and time again that they can piss directly into your open mouths, and you’ll frolic and gargle in the yellow stream like God himself was giving you a nectar-bath. Loathsome pseudo-intellectual college boys used to have ponytails; now they have Radiohead. God help you, you stupid, gullible infants.

All in all, a hilarious read that takes me back to the glory days of Melody Maker's "Mister Abusing".

ZEROHEDGE ACTIVELY CENSORING THE COMMENTS SECTION: here's what you need to know


I was poking thru the ZeroHedge site, my eyes glossing over, when suddenly I saw a link on the right of the page called "Notes on Racial Discrimination".

I thought it would be a funny little piece on how international Jewry secretly controls America with the aid of their Kenyan Muslim puppet-Antichrist in the White House.

Instead, it links to this:
Racism, to include any religious affiliation, will not be tolerated in ANY FORM on this site, including the disparagment of people in the comments section.

To report any form of discrimination, please right click on the comment number, copy the link to the comment, and send the comment link to abuse [at] zerohedge.com.

Any user found to be discriminating against ANY race, religion, or affiliation, will be banned immediately, and have their comments removed from the system.

You have been warned.
Interestingly, the notice is dated May 2013, which I guess means they didn't care about the outright racism of their readership until people like me started pointing out what a batshit crazy hive of neo-Nazism their comments section is.

So I guess blogging does accomplish things.


Some comments about Radiohead


While doing a Google search for "Radiohead" and "bollocks", I came across the following two quotes.

In a recent interview with the NME, Liam Gallagher of Oasis spoke about the band’s upcoming album:

“It’s punk rock. And moody. And well done, proper – none of that weird fooking Radiohead bollocks, none of that indie fooking rubbish. It’s the Pistols and the Beatles, man – it’s us.”

And

In a separate interview with www.groove.de, Richard D. James (aka Aphex Twin) brought up Radiohead:

(Translated from German)
G: Your music was very influential. One of the more outstanding artists, who said they were influenced by your music, is Radiohead. Did you listen to one of their latest Albums 'Kid A' or 'Amnesiac'?
A: I don't like them. I heard about five or six songs and considered them really crappy!
G: Crappy?
A: Yeah! Predictable and crappy! I mean, I'm simply comparing them to my favourite music, and in comparison to that it's horrible! Compared with all that shitty boring R&B-stuff it's probably ok. Compared to these teenage punk bands or whatever you're supposed to call them, which consider themselves being really anarchistic and stuff, they're probably great! If one is suspended solely to things like that and then comes Radiohead, you probably think they're geniuses!

More commentary about what utter bollocks Radiohead is, coming soon!


OMG CHINA DOOOOOM: here's what you need to know


Here's some more stuff:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - why did the stock market sell off today? A hilarious piece of sarcasm aimed towards all media outlets in turn, because I guess Josh doesn't want to work for the media ever.

FT beyond brics - anal cysts slash China forecasts. Everybody and his brother is freaking out about China today. Must be near a bottom.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - Chinese fire drill. China GDP expectations are being slashed, so the market will go full potato and freak out like the ignorant White trash they are. Josh, the fact you're only suggesting people read about this today means you're hilariously behind the curve.

Bonddad - OMG China dooooom. Again, I'm ignoring you all now, because none of you has set foot in China or can speak Chinese. Fuck off. This China Doom story is so old I have doom labels from 2012. Just fuck off.


What the market lets junior miners get away with


Check out the last candle, representing today's trade so far:


Seems the market doesn't want to let GDXJ get >2SD up.

I guess that's good cos it means there are still doubters?

We'll see. I don't like people buying gold because of the Ukraine or because of China dooooom.

Some morning news, mostly just snark from IKN


It took me one morning to move out of US markets and to 60-70% long miners. I still own Italy and some Developed Ex-US as of this moment, but only cos this seems like an overblown drop.

Here's a bit of morning news. More later.


Bespoke - European markets are getting ANNIHILATED. I guess if you're still positive the Eurozone recovery, then this is a buy opp? Then again, maybe we need to see a lot more American momo fools rotate out of Europe, since it was such a popular play last year.


IKN -blah blah gold silver ratio. Where he takes a dig at the anal ysts who were predicting fine times ahead for silver:
And as usual, the selective amnesia of technical analysts has kicked in. If you want a bit of boredom in your day, ask any of the specialists who told you silver would fly once gold broke U$1,360/oz what went wrong. They'll answer with a whole bunch of terms, but "i was wrong" won't figure in their answer.
The empiricist in me agrees: if one prediction after another is wrong, why should I listen to predictions?


FT Alphaville - when will I "Cu" again, ha ha, get it? Oh I say, Joseph Cotterill, you are such a witty chap! Deutsche Bank thinks the copper drop isn't a big deal:
While some metals merchants could be subject to mark to market margin calls due to RMB depreciation, they might opt to do more transit trades to meet cash requirements rather than selling copper outright, although this may only last for a short period of time.

We believe that the recent sell-off is a combination of speculators trying to anticipate the unwinding of financing deals and a lack of buying in China due to sluggish real demand…

With the SHFE/LME arb moving deeper into negative territory (Figure 7) and higher costs associated with RMB, such trades could become less attractive. However, as long as the returns on the unsecured loan in CNY are sufficiently high, such trades could remain profitable.

Copper is hedged in financing deals and is 100% cash backed. (It is rare to get financing deals with copper prices un-hedged these days.) As a result, falling copper prices do not trigger financing deal unwind…

IKN - gold's not in a bubble, you other analysts. Maybe with western stocks so low, now that it all got shipped to China, there's so little physical left in the West to underlie the paper trades that gold can move a lot faster now? I dunno. Anyway, here's a chart for perspective:




Friday videos: Lana Del Rey's "Summertime Sadness"


I just came across this song and was blown away.



Random points to make:

1. There's certainly a lot of Hope Sandoval in her voice, but she does take it a lot farther.
2. Apparently Lana Del Rey doesn't do happy songs. Ever. But that's okay, I guess, so long as she doesn't die of an overdose at 30.
3. It's got 137,000,000 views, so yes apparently I have been living under a rock.


Thursday, March 13, 2014

Eric Coffin giving his PDAC-week talk


Here's a video of Eric Coffin giving a 20-minute talk on the state of the junior scene, titled "You can come out now." He's worth watching.



It wasn't meant as a dig at PSDave.

Blog stat fact


As of right now, four of the most popular posts in the last 24 hours had titles in all caps.

Three of them are celebrity gossip posts.

I am seriously considering dumping the stock market and goldbug focus, in favour of a 24-hour gossip blog made up entirely of articles that I copy from Fark and Gawker.


Interesting article on China, CNY-USD, liquidity, copper, and everything


Qz, the Middle Persian word for a joke that destroys the flow of a comedy program - The falling yuan explains pretty much everything weird going on in China right now.

Wow. Good article. It actually does.

In fact it's even more intriguing to think about whether the Chinese leadership knew that all these things were going to happen when they whacked the exchange rate with that big hammer.


Germany took a dump


Well, this is interesting:



Germany's -3SD all of a sudden.

Dunno if that's just dumb yankees rotating out of the market they bid up like nuts in their end-2013 window dressing, or if something worse is in the air. But it sure looks interesting. Upcoming worldwide pause in equity markets, maybe?




UK's also fallen out of bed today. That's really weird - you'd expect that a kleptocratic Soviet puppet state would be doing well in this market, no?


Some newn noos


Here's the news, with a gold miner buyout rumour after the break to earn me some more bitcoin:


Bonddad - double top for DJIA? Well, volume has weakened the second time round and the MACD is lowering its trend. No good reason for it, but the chart is the chart, and I'm sure a load of people trade on nothing but the chart nowadays.


Bespoke - jobless claims better than expected. And yet? Gold goes up and SPY goes down.

Well I guess GDXJ decided to go up


Well, the chart is the chart.


Among the upside breakthroughs I see right now are Lydian and Goldcorp. Yamana and FNV look positive, too.

So I guess the gold miner scene isn't done going up yet.


Wednesday, March 12, 2014

THE TRUTH BEHIND KATY PERRY'S SATANIC ILLUMINATI GRAMMY PERFORMANCE: here's what you need to know


What's the fixation with Katy Perry? I mean sure, bewbs, not my thing by she's apparently got them, I think she has great legs though - but Satanic? Illuminati?

Well the following video explains it all! Apparently!


KELLY BROOK'S EX-GLADIATOR BOYFRIEND PLEADS GUILTY TO CRASHING VAN FULL OF DEAD BADGERS INTO BUS STOP: here's what you need to know



Daily Mail - Kelly Brook's ex-Gladiator boyfriend pleads guilty to crashing van full of dead badgers into bus stop.

Um... okay....

So, if I've read this correctly, it seems that we can conclude, at least provisionally, that this news article's headline was written in the English language.

No really, that's... that's about all I can say.

Wow.

Wake up, sheeple!

Some more evening news


In case the last two articles weren't enough to frighten you out of the market, there's this!


Bespoke - breadth remains strong. Yet more pure dispassionate analysis from Bespoke.


Ritholtz - how market tops get made. Gee. Good article. Let me quote a big section for the permabears who still have no fucking clue, since obviously they won't click through to read a Ritholtz article:
New 52-week highs are the earliest indication of a market that might be turning unhealthy. Look for divergences between index-price highs and new 52-week highs. When a major index such as the S&P 500 is making new highs but the number of SPX stocks making 52-week peaks begins declining, that divergence is a significant warning sign. Desmond notes that this can warn of an eventual top as much as a year ahead of time.

The next warning signal is the divergences between the advance/decline line and the broader markets. This often turns south six to eight months ahead of major tops. Desmond emphasizes that both the new 52-week highs and advanced/decline line reveal market breadth -- a term that describes how much of the market is participating in the advance. When tops occur, we see extreme selectivity -- fewer and fewer stocks are pulling the market upward. We saw a classic example in the “Nifty Fifty” during the 1960s, and again in the dot-com bubble with a handful of leading stocks driving the Nasdaq.

The third factor is selectivity by market capitalization size. Desmond has observed that, historically, the first group to roll over is the small caps. The bottom 50 percent of the market by cap size will begin to falter first, while the rest of the market appears healthy. The usual time period is eight months prior to a top for the smaller issues to fade. The mid-caps -- the next 35 percent or so of equities -- will falter four to six months before the high. The tendency for big-cap-dominated indices to peak last is a function of their structure. They are market-cap weighted and therefore can be dominated by a handful of mega-caps.

The fourth and last factor worth watching is the percentage of stocks in a bear market. As a rough estimate, any equity down 20 percent from recent highs can be considered in its own bear market. During healthy bull markets, less than 10 percent of stocks are in this condition. As the small caps and mid-caps roll over, this percentage will increase. At the market peak, we typically see one-fifth of stocks in their own bear market.

What does all this mean for the current run? According to Lowry’s, “the weight of evidence continues to suggest a healthy primary uptrend with no end in sight.” For those concerned with a market top, that is rather bullish.
It's an article for us sensible people to file away for future reference, and for permabears to read immediately so they can make themselves a little less fucking ignorant.


Bonddad - ag ETF still rallying. Pretty freakin' crazy chart there. And I bet some dumbass Whiteys are looking at that chart and saying "OMG the hyperinflation has come! buy gold!!1!" But maybe it has something to do with crop failures in Brazil, the drought in California, and now uncertainty in the Ukraine?


Right Wing Watch - America has been overthrown by a Nazi dictatorship! OMG! Yet how nice of the Nazis to let a mixed-race guy run the country. Or as a commenter at Fark wrote:
He's a strong armed fascist authoritarian thug who's an effete, feckless professor hellbent on imposing pure Marxist Socialism through Bernanke and his Wall Street pals via crony capitalism. He's a smug, out-of-touch elitist, who's just going to give out freebies and handouts to his "homies" in the poor underclass in the ghettos. The ultimate goal is enact a Godless, secular European based society through Islamic Fundamentalism, and the Hollywood gay agenda will be shoved down our throats through Sharia Law.

Wake up, people!!
To which I replied:




LINDSAY LOHAN'S "CELEBRITY FUCK LIST" MIGHT INCLUDE ASHTON KUTCHER! WAKE UP MILA! - here's what you need to know


Gawker - Lindsay Lohan's celebrity fuck list published.

OK, I lied, Mila: the list that was released doesn't have Ashton Kutcher's name on it. Or if it is on, it's been censored. For the time being.

But god, Mila - do the math!

1. The censored version has Heath Ledger, Lukas Haas, Joaquin Phoenix, Justin Timberlake and Colin Farrell.

2. The names that were blacked out are names of people who are in relationships. You know who's in a relationship? Ashton.

3. Demi Moore already warned you that Ashton will cheat on you. Once a cheat, always a cheat!

4. If his dick touched Lindsay Lohan...?

Don't get played, Mila! I still want to be able to respect you!


Hitchhiker's Gide to the Galaxy computer game now available for free online


BBC Radio 4 extra - The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy game - 30th anniversary edition.

In honour of the 30th anniversary of the show and the day after Douglas Adams' birthday.

It's free or something but I can't get it to work in Firefox.


China and gold, what was that thing again?


OK, remind me:


Which is the country which supposedly buys half the world's gold, again? Is it the one that's 3SD down right now, flirting with breaking through support, while their credit edifice collapses?

Hey sure, the chart is the chart. But at the same time, these charts are these charts, too.


Note to all Sandstorm buyers


Well, this is an impressive-looking chart and all....


but it's a $560M company with operating cash flow (per 4Q) of $8M per quarter.

Um, except that they had to take a $52M impairment in 4Q because Nolan Watson's DD inspired him to piss the shareholders' money into the watery depths of Serra Pelada, from where it shall never return. That's... um... six times 4Q's revenues, gone in one impairment.

So, basically, if you think you're buying a $560M company at 17x cash flow, you must be assuming Nolan's never going to book an impairment again.

Like he had to do in 3Q on Bracemac.

One screwup is just a screwup. Two is a trend.

Sucks cos I'd love to buy this, but til Nolan pulls his head out his own Libertarian Objectivist ass, I have to stay away.


IRON ORE COLLAPSES, DICTATOR OBAMA CONFISCATES GAME OF THRONES SEASON 4, GoT STAR COMES OUT AS HODOR: here's what you need to know


Here's your noon noos:


FT beyond brics - the West's double standards toward Ukraine. An important point that Gwynne Dyer also made last week: the "Russian speaking east" are ethnically Ukrainian, they just speak the Russian language. So don't expect Lugansk to go the way of Crimea, whose population is actually ethnically Russian.


FT beyond brics - Indian gold industry went on strike. Given Modi's association with the jewelry industry, this sentence might be key:
According to Mehta, only 6 tonnes of gold were imported to India in the last four months, a tiny fraction of the 1,000 tonnes the industry needs every year. Jewellers have seen business drop 90 per cent in the past year. And the effects will spread to India’s blighted banking sector at the end of this financial year, as jewellers and dealers will struggle to repay billions of rupees in loans.
Too bad there's going to be a drought this year, eh?


Mining.com - iron ore price stabilizes. Quote:
The stockpiled iron ore is not being put to industrial use, but because of tight credit conditions inside China the ore is being used as collateral to secure loans. About 40% of the more than 100m tonnes of iron ore at China’s ports are part of finance deals, Mysteel Research estimates. Banks are now calling in these loans, leading to the collapse of steel traders and rumours of the imminent demise of a number of large mills.

Chief executive of iron ore at world number two iron ore producer Rio Tinto, Andrew Harding told the conference this credit squeeze is the main reason behind the recent drop in the price[.]
No, Otto! Nothing to see here at all! Move along!


Gawker - Dictator-for-life Obama forces HBO at gunpoint to provide him with advance copy of season 4 of Game of Thrones. Seriously! America is crippled by hyperinflation, mass unemployment and the collapse of the dollar, and what does Balrog HUSSEIN Taxbongo do? Curl up in front of the TV with his cheesies and his homosexual craft beer and watch a confiscated season 4 DVD before the rest of America! Wake up sheeple!


Daily Telegraph - Game of Thrones star comes out as Hodor. So apparently Hodor is gay. That's as good an excuse as any for a Hodor meme:



(Updated) INCAKOLA DEMANDS APOLOGY FROM HAYWOOD SECURITIES: here's what you need to know


IKN - where Haywood Securities gets its source material. Now, I have regular readers at the OSC, CTV, M Capital Partners, Verdmont, Macquarie, Cormark and the government of Afghanistan, yet I don't accuse them of stealing my thoughts. Then again, they're probably only here for the swearing and the Mila Kunis gifs.

If you ever see anyone stealing my thoughts, though, go ahead and let me know.

UPDATE: holy fuck, Haywood actually got legal counsel to write an apology letter to him.

Dudes.

Oh. My. God.

No.

And yet gold goes up


Well, this second gold's at $1365, for whatever reason. Probably cos Whitey is buying.

And yet I still have a problem with buying:

The juniors have spent the last 3 days not caring, so I'm not excited yet. Downward price movement these past two days is especially puzzling.




I'm also not excited til volume comes back, momentum returns, and that wedge gets broken to the upside. This pause has been going on awfully long and in an awfully tight range.




And if the market thinks the future for gold is so rosy, why does it want to sell Franco Nevada?

Maybe the sellers get proven stupid today. I dunno. But I want to wait and see.


Tuesday, March 11, 2014

The morning metalloblogosphere disinformation campaign


Here's your morning round of disinformation, meant to keep you off balance as I snaffle up the best prices while telling the greenhorns to be cautious.

And personally, I'd rather be a member of the newwaveoblogosphere.

Anyway, here's some lies:


Bespoke - consumer discretionary comes roaring back. Seems the tech play is so last year, and this year you need to buy things like consumer and banking stocks: exactly the stocks that would invalidate the doomer thesis.

The Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - the easy money myth. Wherein he whines about how hard it's actually been to just buy SPY and walk away for 5 years. Quote:
It’s been one of the hardest environments in market history. Never before have investors’ wounds been so raw. Never before have there been so many voices polluting the popular consciousness with half-baked conspiracy theories and calls for collapse. Never have there been such a dizzying array of investment vehicle options to confuse and confound. Never have the perceived risks been quite as ferocious.

In the last five years, investors have dealt with a non-functioning congress, a downgrade of the US Treasury, mass unemployment, exploding deficits, record debt, a possible dissolution of Europe and a slow-motion crash in China and the emerging markets – and that’s before we even get into any specifics. And not only have the threats been unprecedented, the amplification of them – thanks to the desperation of the mainstream media for attention coupled with the advent of a whole new chattering class on social media – has been like an orchestra of clanging pots and pans, car alarms and doberman barks, shrieks and howls, thunder and lightning. Every step of the way some motherf*cker’s been screaming about something about to crash, the calamity waiting around the corner, the next shoe to drop.

And I’m not even including the individual siren songs of all the charlatans – the Black Swan hypochondriacs, the long-shorts and market-neutrals who couldn’t outperform the interest on a checking account, the macro newsletter geriatrics who’ve wasted hours of your life with their freestyle declinist noodling, the televised shoutfests, the player-haters at the newspaper who couldn’t wait to remind you how bad everything “really” was, the alarmist bloggers who’ve had free reign to say basically anything with zero recourse, the political operatives posing as economics experts, and on and on. Your ability to stiff-arm them all as you’ve nudged your way just a bit further toward retirement is to be commended.
Hey! That kinda sounds like the beginning of a secular bull market, eh? It's certainly not the mindset that you'd expect at the end of a cyclical bear rally, is it?

Faux News - does MtGox CEO still control all those stolen bitcoins? The allegation being made here is that he's only pretending to have lost all that Monopoly money, when really he's still got it all. All I have to say is this: you libertarians are sure hitting a home run with every new cryptocurrency story.

IKN - not worried about iron ore prices. So he says the drop in iron ore is just due to a "blown up spec play in China or something".

Mining.com - copper, iron ore take huge hits. So Frik Els points out that coking coal prices have also collapsed, and worse, quote:
The steelmaking raw material plummeted 8.3% to the lowest since October 2012 after rumours of the collapse of a large mill sent shivers through the sector and plunge in imports of iron ore of more than 25 million tonnes in February.
Now, mills are supposed to be collapsing in China: the government is threatening to radically cut the country's massive oversupply. But there's also supposed to be no reduction in demand going on, because new mills are popping up faster than the government can shut down old ones. So why a 25Mt drop in imports? Hm? Well, IKN responds with:

IKN - la la la, I'm not listening, la la la, I can't hear you. Hey, I'm not saying gold is going to go down! I'm just saying that a Chinese liquidation binge is something you should definitely stay on the lookout for, because gold might follow. Cuz I figger while gold goes up, it would be a generally good idea to pay attention to the possibility of downside risks. Because if gold continued going up despite the end of the EM/commodity secular bull play, that would not be typical. For a commodity, anyway.

I eagerly await IKN's counterargument to the prediction of an Indian drought this year, by the way.


Monday, March 10, 2014

The Legendary Brent Cook chairs a legendary panel discussion. Difficulty: no Daniela Cambone.


First off, there are some problems with this video that make it nearly unwatchable:

1. Alex Letourneau does the interview instead of Daniela.

2. This time it doesn't happen in a bar.

So with that out of the way, here's the Legendary Cookie Monster, and Catherine McLeod Seltzer and Miles Thompson and Alex Davidson and no Daniela, not talking in a bar about "peak exploration":



Watch Cookie get his ass spanked on his "peak discovery" theory by both Davidson and McLeod.

I mean literally, they whoop him like a red-headed stepchild. Then they stomp a mudhole in his ass and walk it dry.

In all seriousness, Cookie should think about whether it's possible for the cost of mining an ounce of gold to go down over the next ten years, as EM currencies continue to drop and EMs scramble to keep mining companies in their countries.


Evening news


Here's some evening reading:


Calculated Risk - more employment graphs. Read 'em and weep.

Ritholtz - current bull market second-strongest since WWII. If you don't own it, you have to ask how you expect to be making money.

Calculated Risk - framing lumber prices. Confirmation that people are still building houses. Thus, again, I don't get where you're getting this "2014 top" bullshit from.

BI - why the Chinese market got ANNIHILATED. But seriously though, this is a Mamta Badkar story so you can take it seriously because she's not a toad like Joey the Weasel. Takeaways from the article: it's not just the crap trade numbers, there was also credit deterioration. And quote:
"If a default indeed occurs (especially on principal), we believe that the market will have reached the Bear Stearns stage (when the market started to seriously re-assess subprime debt risk)," wrote Bank of America's David Cui in a note to clients.

"We doubt that the financial system in China will experience a liquidity crunch immediately because of this default but we think the chain reaction will probably start."

Barclays' Jian Chang and Serena Zhou think the systemic risk from the default is small but "expect more but selective defaults, more risks to be exposed, and greater financial market volatilities this year."

Again, it's not the idea that a financial collapse is imminent, but that the cogs are now in motion
.
I'd say that it's not whether there's actual "systemic risk"; the danger is the sudden urge to re-price the risk that's always been there. That was how mortgage-backed securities went kaboom. It'll be interesting to see how the Chinese government responds.

Mining.com - iron ore craters 8%. First copper, now iron? Gee... I wonder if gold's next?

IKN - and a jolly good morning to the rip-off artist at Haywood. For fuck's sake, guys! Anyone who reads his blog recognizes an IKN bar graph! They always use the exact same fonts and bar formats.

Though I can understand you not wanting to credit him. After all, he's the candirĂº of the junior mining scene whereas you're trying to pretend that Haywood has serious analysis.

Though I could also understand him retaliating by posting your weekly mailers for free on his blog, with sarcastic commentary added, until you do credit him. I mean, that's what I'd do. But maybe he's nicer than that.


Liz-Ann Sonders on Crimea


Here's a quote from Liz-Ann Sonders' market update:

I do just want to just say a couple of words about what seems to be rolling crises within the emerging markets, most recently what's happening in Russia and the Ukraine. And, again, the news is moving, so I hope I don't date myself by the time you read this. But, as of this point, Russian president Putin has retreated to some degree from military action. And I think it's a function of the fact that the market got absolutely crushed the first day of the real crisis. So that, obviously, impacts the elite. It impacts the economy. That doesn't tend to serve politicians well. The currency went into freefall. That's a recipe for a major inflation problem. Russia was facing not only sanctions across the board, but particularly upon the elite, and that hurts across the board[....]

Perceptive of her to note that Putin only stays in power as long as his cronies can make money off him.


Some Monday news


The US markets seem to be freaking out inconclusively, what with this being the five-year anniversary of the 666 bottom and the pussies' inability to just be thankful the market is still going up.

I am concerned that the metals are taking on the stench of dooooom.

Here's some newsreading:

Liz-Ann Sonders - market snapshot. She's doing video instead of old-fashioned typing now. Thankfully, you can still see the transcript and the slides. She goes into a lot of detail. You should pay attention to her.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - on the Feb jobs report. He notes that college grads are essentially at full employment now, and points out that the increase in hourly earnings is very good for the US outlook. So why this pussy doesn't just shut up with his whining and buy SPY is beyond me.

Ritholtz - five years ago today I switched from bear to bull because the evidence told me to. Big Barry on his bottom-tick buy call from 2009. If only more people could get their heads out of their asses, look around them, and see the real world.

der Spargel - Europe stressed by upcoming stress tests. Maybe this'll cause some relative underperformance for core Europe over these next few weeks? And here's a funny quote:
"Supposedly, the ECB intends to fail 30 banks to establish credibility," says Dirk Becker, an analyst with Kepler Cheuvreux in Frankfurt. "If that is true, it could get dicey for German institutions as well, such as Commerzbank, HSH Nordbank or Nord/LB." The US investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) believes that 27 banks will fail, but that German institutions will be particularly hard hit. KBW forecasts that eight banks in Germany won't pass the test, almost as many as in Italy and Spain combined.
Oh dear! You mean the debt-hating superior German race actually has the shittiest, least-capitalized, most-dangerous banks in the Eurozone? Worse than Italy and Spain? Oh my!

BI - copper futures fall. You think this is only due to bad export data, huh? Well, we'll see how smart you look a month from now, cheese.

WSJ India Realtime - El Nino will hurt Indian monsoon. That's why I'm not very positive gold after the April/May election season. The prediction might change, but if not, you've got to remember that Indian peasants are the ones who buy gold. If India stops buying due to a drought, and China starts dumping due to collateral seizure, you goldbugs are going to get anally romanced.

FT beyond brics - Indian CEOs on the election. That's nice and all that you clowns have opinions, but I know that the election results are determined locally by which candidate can buy people the most motorbikes.

ZeroHedge - what ten-baggers (and hundred-baggers!) look like. IKN this weekend inventoried his reasons for thinking we've already had the bottom in the juniors scene. Well, here's another bottom indicator for you: Casey Research is writing articles for ZeroHedge again, trying to lure a new crop of fools into their subscription service by promising ten-baggers.

Marginal Revolution - your porn is not Canadian enough. Hey, dudes, we've got CanCon regulations, and you agreed to them when you applied to the CRTC for your broadcast license, so quit whining. Personally, I'd be very happy to subscribe to your channels if you showed 8 hours a day of Ariel Rebel videos. Look her up, she's a little sweetie.

And yes, Ariel, I'd love to promote you on my blog in return for a free membership to your site! Plus a big hug and kiss.