Friday, February 21, 2014

Friday videos: Kylie's catchy new single

Can't get it out of your head?

Woop! D'ya wanna wanna
Woop! I wanna wanna

Stuck back in your head again? More than you care to think about?

Here, maybe watching her on The Voice will get it out of your head. So let's just do it right now, do it, come on.

Woop! D'ya wanna wanna
Woop! I wanna wanna

I guess if it's still stuck in your head, it's just going to stay forever, and ever, and ever....

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Market Narrative is even more not a blog than IKN

Market Narrative is even more not a blog than IKN.

No, not only is Market Narrative in fact a proprietary, cross-platform message relaying system adapted for modern use for all major internet access devices, including smartphones and mobile devices, which allows instant and free access of contained information to the client and accessible via all major platforms, including Android, Apple iOS, Windows Phone and Blackberry, but Market Narrative also features animated gifs of kittens:

Extensive market research has conclusively demonstrated the superior results that a cross-platform message relaying system will obtain by leveraging cute kitten gifs as part of the unified user experience.

For example, this blog presently generates over $20 a month in earnings; a monthly earnings growth of 20% (easily obtainable within the kitten gif submarket) would mean this blog will generate $6 billion/month profits after just nine years. Is that earnings potential, or what?

In addition, the Market Narrative blog also features investment commentary by Mila Kunis. Though I'm at work now so I can't post any Mila Kunis pics, sorry. But Mila is a famous follower of this blog, and this means Market Narrative is also ideally placed to ride on the coat-tails of her fame leverage the association with Mila Kunis for maximum benefit.

IKN, by contrast, is only read by smelly geologists and floor traders: truly the apex and epitome of unsexy, its readership guarantees slow and inglorious death for any corporation who associates with it (e.g. Vena Resources, Focus Ventures, Minera IRL).

Further, it must be noted that Otto Rock's a fucking Chavez-worshipping indigenous-people-sympathizing commie Bolivaran bastard who answers to a Soviet-trained handler and is only going to make a big show of how he doesn't want your fascist white American money. In stark contrast, I am a sociopathic corporate whore who would like nothing better than to see how fast I can burn through nineteen billion dollars. Or even nineteen thousand dollars. In fact, I've already bookmarked a significant number of higher-end Toronto-area escort agency websites in anticipation of your money.

Plz forward to Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Dick Costolo or frankly anyone with more money than brains superior ability to leverage growth from an established base of kitten gifs.

Two morning newsbits on gold, plus dietary advice

Yesterday afternoon I suddenly had extreme hunger pangs and had to go get an egg mcmuffin.

I think the hunger pangs must mean my lung infection is wearing off and I'm finally getting better. So today I'm going to go fill up on ribs and beer for lunch, to give my immune system that one final push that it needs.

By the way, I freakin' love egg mcmuffins! So chock-full of fat and protein! That stuff hits my bloodstream and it's like a veil has been lifted from my eyes.

Fat is actually good for you, btw - it's what your muscles run on, and it probably also is needed for proper functioning of your bone marrow and your immune system. So when your body is screaming for saturated fats, it's telling you that it's low on vital nutrients: so do make sure you indulge yourself.

Anyway, two morning newsbits for you, and they're both on the yellow metal:

Reuters - Switzerland's physical gold heads for Asia. Here's the customs data to reinforce what people have been saying. Quote:
Holdings of the largest gold-backed ETF, New York-listed SPDR Gold Shares, fell more than 550 tonnes.

Meanwhile, demand soared to record levels in China and rose sharply in Turkey, Egypt, Japan and India, despite tough import restrictions in the latter, historically the world's biggest bullion consumer.

While the statistics office does not provide data on the source or destination of its gold shipments by volume, analysts say outflows from ETFs are likely to have fed this demand via Switzerland.

"A lot of metal was migrating (last year) from Europe and North America, not least from the SPDR and similar funds, to the Middle East, the Far East, and to some extent South Asia," said Rhona O'Connell, head of metals research at consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS.

"Metal coming out of the ETFs and to some extent the over-the-counter market would have been large 400-ounce bars. They would have been going through refineries, predominantly in Switzerland, for conversion into kilobars or smaller."

Gold held to back the SPDR ETF is stored in 400-ounce bars in HSBC's vaults in London, according to the fund's prospectus.

In a note earlier this week, Australian bank Macquarie, citing trade data from EU statistics agency Eurostat, said the UK exported 1,739 tonnes of gold in 2013, with the vast majority sent to Switzerland.

This is more than 10 times higher than in 2012, it said. "We believe this largely reflects investor liquidation, and that much of it eventually found its way to China," Macquarie said.
So here's a question for Wall Street Whitey: when these guys are so desperately buying, do you really think it's smart for you to be selling?

Bullionvault - UK gold exports were twice ETF selling in 2013. Quote:
UK GOLD EXPORTS in 2013 were nearly double the volume of exchange-traded fund liquidation, new research shows.

Compared with only 160 tonnes in 2012, exports of physical gold bullion totaled 1,739 tonnes last year according to data reported by the UK's HMRC tax authority to the European Union's Eurostat agency.

More than 5 times visible UK gold imports, according to a report from Macquarie Bank analyst Matthew Turner, and equal to 60% of annual world gold mining output, that was nearly twice the outflow of gold from ETF gold trusts, which typically vault metal in London to back their shares.

The gap between gold ETF sales and UK exports suggests heavy sales by investors such as hedge funds and wealthy family offices, who owned metal outright and vaulted it securely in London – heart of the world's physical bullion and silver market – with either a major bank or private specialist.
Again, Whitey, you gots ta ax yourself: why do you want to give all your gold to Asia so darn cheap?

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Shanghai chart

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - chart of the day: Shanghai surprise. I don't see it, but Fatty notes that a Chinese breakout would be about the last thing that anyone would expect. And since it says something about gold, I thought I'd pass it on to you.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

a WTF moment

Seen on the way home, identifying information removed:

Dude, she's just not that into you.

The only thing worse than being talked about is being talked about unsatisfyingly

Someone on twitter - are you IWNATTOS?

Every time there's a scathing indictment, people compare it to me.

If I'm the standard by which scathing indictments are measured, I guess I should finally write that novel.

Too bad the novel in question is a twisted science-fiction investigation of existential dread and not anything remotely scathing.

Dow transports not confirming

Since I'm more interested in the capex cycle play, I've been owning NDX for my US exposure:

Looks fine, no?

Well, the transports don't:

Thankfully I bought my HQU at close enough to the last bottom that I don't have to freak out on one day of action and can hold my position with a mental stop in mind.

Caveat: there might be some other reason that transports look bad that don't have anything at all to do with Dow Theory.

on Grant Williams at PDAC

So someone suggested I go see Grant Williams at PDAC.

I never blindly follow the suggestions of anyone. Even with people I like and follow regularly, I recognize they sometimes exhibit disastrous judgment in their own reading material and news sources. So, I did some quick googling and found this:

The Gold Report - Greg Weldon and Grant Williams.

Now, there's nothing better than reading an interview about gold from February 2012 to determine whether a guy is worth listening to. And I'm sorry but this article is just plain embarrassing. Here's some takeaways:

1. Grant Williams thought gold was going to $2200, and silver to $60. Grade-A fail.

2. He's all about the "money printing" and "devaluation", which means he had no clue about the economic situation of the developed world in 2012.

3. He misread the Euro crisis, which means I don't care what he has to say for any future predictions.

4. When he said "This 11-year ascent in both precious metals is only going to change when central bank policy surrounding it changes. I just don't see that happening in the foreseeable future until they get this debt problem under control," he got the next two years in precious metals disastrously wrong, and he got it wrong via incompetent incomprehension of reality.

5. He uses the word "fiat". He uses it in that way.

6. Oh and he (elsewhere) thinks Eric Sprott is clever.

If I'm going to listen to a person speak in a room full of smelly goldbugs 4 levels down at the MTCC, I want that person to (a) be competent in his purported subject matter, (b) always be more-or-less right, or at least not regularly caught flat-footed, and (c) not be full of talking points cribbed from the Republican Party echo chamber.

Grant Williams fails at all three. So in place of his talk at PDAC, I'll be taking a smoke break.

GLD is not gold

Aleph Blog - gold inflows and outflows. A follow-up to Josh Brown's point that people sell at bottoms and buy at tops. Although I would point out that the sellers of GLD were not mom & pop investors: the sellers were major hedge funds.

As Peter Tchir noted on the collapse through $1500, these funds bought GLD for the weakest and most wrong reasons: first they hated Obama, and then they were expecting hyperinflation and dollar collapse, and then they were buying gold because it was going up, and finally everyone owned GLD just because everyone else owned GLD.

That wasn't going to end well, and so it didn't, and Tchir is the only guy who nailed it right at the outset.

The blogger also adds this:
As for GLD, be wary about paper gold. Is it really fully collateralized by audited gold in a warehouse? There are lots of promises of gold being traded, but how much physical gold could you have delivered to you, should you want it?
Maybe he's a doomer or something, I don't know him.

But I'll provide an easier, more sensible and mainstream translation of this for Barry and Josh:

GLD is not physical gold. It is a derivative of physical gold. This is so even if GLD is backed 100% by physical gold. This is because GLD carries counterparty risks that do not exist with physical gold: in a limit situation, the gold in GLD's vaults can disappear if enough things go wrong.

Those sorts of things that go wrong are exactly what physical gold is bought for protection against. Therefore, GLD is by definition not gold. You do not buy GLD if you want "the protection of gold".

But it doesn't matter because there's no good reason for any hedge fund to own physical gold. Because the insurance value of gold doesn't even pass through the hedge fund to the investors: if things go wrong in the world, that hedge fund also goes to zero as its investors' assets get gobbled up by its counterparties (or spent on hookers and blow by the fund managers).

So it's still true that GLD is not gold. You trade GLD to trade the price of gold without a commodity brokerage account, is all.

And now, the news

Some news:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - real consumer confidence returns. Fatty points out that we should pay attention to hard data and not people's stupid opinions.

BI - Jim Rogers' worries about China. For what it's worth: he's come down with the rabies these past few years, but he's still Jim Rogers.

Reuters - auspicious dates in 2014 for buying gold in India. I'm not that bullish on Indian demand after May, because apparently we might have an El Nino to worry about this year. Keep your eyes open for that.

Mineweb - forecasters still bearish gold. SocGen is calling for 4Q14 average of $1050, and some other clown is calling for a 4Q14 of $1020. I guess you can call this a demonstration of the inertia of narrative? I'm sure that they'll change their forecasts at $1400. And people in the LameStream media will still think their forecasts are worth listening to.

Reuters - gold smuggling will increase if India doesn't back down says WGC. Well duh.

The Guardian - one in four Americans think Obama is the Antichrist. But really, is it really a bad thing if you elect the Antichrist? Seems to me you're getting a useful ally. And it's not like the US is on the side of God or anything.

Slate - psychologists prove internet trolls are sadistic, narcissistic psychopaths. As opposed to the fluffy little balls of sunshine we always thought they were. Personally I just delete their moronic childish posts without any comment. That eventually clues them in. Takes time though, since psychopaths are very poor learners.

Silver chart looks idiotic

Take a look at the past couple days in silver:

There's no reason for silver to have broken out of that 3 month range like this. There's no shortage of silver, and silver is not gold, but for some stupid reason I guess Wall Street Whitey sees the positivity in gold and has decided to leverage that play buy buying a totally unrelated metal.

Monday, February 17, 2014

Opinions on PDAC speaker list

OK, again just for reference, this is Sunday at PDAC:

Except it seems Rick Rule has bumped Mickey and is now in the 2:05 spot.

I want to see Roulston, maybe Jojo, Kaiser, Cookie, Coffin and Adrian Day. Problem with Coffin is that I'll have to squeeze past Rick Rule's Jovian ego just to get into the room. I'm sure the room will be full of fanbois for Ricky.

Any of these other guys worth seeing at all? I think I haven't heard of Garrett Goggin, Mike Berry, Chris Berry and Grant Williams. The rest I already have opinions of and won't waste my time seeing in any case.

Though I might just stick around to heckle James West about Liberty Silver, if one of you guys offers to get me drunk.

Gold $1329.20, bitchez!

Things to expect over the next few days:

1. gold going up.

2. a slew of revisions to gold forecasts from the Wall Street clown car, with clever justifications that completely ignore how nothing has fundamentally changed for the gold market since their previous $1100 forecasts (other than Soros).

3. a bevy of articles from the click-whore media, suggesting gold's ascent is due to something stupid like the threat of coming inflation, or threat of US collapse, or whatever.

4. probably even mainstream media interviews with goldbug queers like Marc Faber, John Hussman and other Alex Jones types.

My advice? Ignore all except #1.

interesting chart for Lydian

The bit at the end is interesting:

From late Jan to early Feb, you get that little cusp drawn that finds support at the Bollinger mean and EMA(16), and the volume has been increasing over the past 2 weeks. That's been a breakout on everyone else's chart whenever it happened.

Plusses, LYD has a decent-grade low-capex deposit that needs to be bought if the world still wants to buy gold 5 years from now. And they're a GDXJ component, which means they're being bought indiscriminately.

Minuses, Armenia has been aggressively fucking them over.

Meh... may as well just buy GDX or GDXJ, or even HGU if you're Canadian and like leverage.

Major miners versus junior miners

Dammit, Canada and US markets are apparently closed today, and here's me wanting to buy more mining stocks!

It's fun, by the way, to look at my account summary and see very large numbers printed in green. I guess that's why I always want to come back to that filthy foul-mouthed slut known as junior mining - she's a diseased psychopath, sure, and she's got a horrible rep, but the sex is unbelievable when she lets you have some.

Anyway, upon reading my weekly dish of junior mining scene analysis, here's some charts:

Long-term, GDX has outperformed (not sucked as bad as) GDXJ over the past 3 years, maybe because the GDX is made up of companies with actual income, while the GDXJ is saddled with a large population of moose-pasture lies that were worth billions years ago and nothing now.

But if you look at the Bollinger bands, GDX is at the lower level of its valuation continuum.

And this is what that lower level looks like when zoomed in on the daily:

So the ratio has gone from 0.71 to 0.60 in a little over a month.

To some extent, this is because the GDXJ stocks were so hard puked-down that some have snapped back fiercely: OGC's gone from $1.50 to $2.60 is this time, while MUX went from $1.90 to $3.30. Idiot stocks like ATC have gone from under $.60 to over $1.20.

So maybe the outperformance of GDXJ is a function of how much those stocks suck?

Well now, apparently capital is now interested in loading up on gold miners again, and so the question is, can you see an outperformance in GDX versus GDXJ?

I doubt you can see 100% moves in the major miners. Seems unpossibru. But on the other hand, how much upside could possibly be left in the mosse-pasture purveyors? At a bare minimum, someone's gotta be left who'd be happy to unload their shares at a 100% premium over December. Then again, maybe those shareholders left in the juniors are truly stupid enough to think they can make back yet another 100% on where they are now?

Sunday, February 16, 2014

SMBC with a brilliant one

From SMBC:

I'd love to see the movie, personally. Kickstart it.

Some Sunday news

I'm slowly getting better, except for a nagging lung infection that makes fizzy noises after I've been sleeping for an hour. I'll probably have to see the doctor if it keeps up.

Anyway, here's some weekend reading:

New Deal Democrat - long leading indicators to the rescue. So apparently there's not a recession around the corner anymore?

Calculated Risk - retail sales decreased 0.4% in January. However, to avoid being misled, you should instead look at yoy, where it's up 2.6% - or 3.3% ex gasoline.

Bespoke - gold is above its 200DMA. Uh-oh! The blogosphere has picked up on gold! And this is a good website too, not Business Insider! It might be the overwhelming disgust of gold and the miners has finally dissipated and we're going to see cash flow back in to float us back to mediocrity now.

Yahoo Finacne - hedge funds going long gold. And suddenly balance has returned to the Force! It's funny by the way to read that Soros bought 6.3 million shares of Barrick, cuz... - 36 million ounces of gold vanished from Barrick's reserves. That happened when Barrick had to use $1100 gold instead of $1500 to calculate their reserves. This will hopefully explain to the pencil-pusher at Goldman Sachs that future gold supply really does disappear (from an accountancy standpoint, anyway) when the price goes down to $1100.

The Economic Geologist - the farce that is the junior exploreco website. Into a little more detail on Brent Cook's pet peeve of the month:
I review a lot of early and advanced stage projects and I can count on my one hand websites that I have come across that are actually attempting to present their results in a truthful and conservative (wise) way.

Eventually I realized the company mentioned did not even post their NI 43-101 report on their site. No, you had to go over to the SEDAR website and do a little advanced search. That’s the mandatory Canadian document filing system for listed companies. The geology and resource section was beautifully decorated, naturally, with the main emphasis on “equivalent grade”. The reporting/ publishing of “equivalent grade” is of course banned by the Canadian Securities Law unless it is accompanied by the actual metal grade. If you were to have had a magnifying glass at hand, you would have been able to see the actual metal grade printed in microscopic font and 1 RGB code away from pure white. Simply put, pathetic.

This sort of chronic dishonesty (a half truth is a lie and a truth told with the intent to deceive is also a lie) in the exploration industry is what perpetuates a negative stigma around the mining industry as a whole, but in the end, it is the junior company itself that loses the most. People, and/or companies who are looking to spend serious money tend to do rigorous due diligence. And a half baked, half honest marketing attempt leaves a bad and sceptical taste in the mouth.
Generally true, and I completely agree with the underlined two statements in the third paragraph, and I'd add that these companies should not be even traded on grown-up exchanges. Let them all go to the NEX or the pinks to scare up sucker capital. Because if they aren't giving you the information you need to know, they're asking you to play the sucker.