Sunday, December 14, 2014

Some Sunday evening news

Here's some more stuff:

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. His summary:
With one exception, the significant negatives mainly tell s story of global weakness - a flight to treasury bonds vs. corporate bonds, shipping, and commodities. US data, with the sole exception of Gallup daily spending, continues to tell a story of strength.
So keep puking the S&P 500, people!

BBC - Abe wins. Now the market can find something else to shit itself about.

Gavyn Davies - I don't know what caused the oil crash. Economists are morons:
Like investors, economists have been thrown into confusion. Almost no-one in the profession (including myself) predicted the oil price collapse in advance. After the shock, it took months for oil price forecasts to be brought into line with the new reality. Futures prices in the oil market have performed no better: predicting oil prices can be a mug’s game.

More surprisingly, there has also been a disinclination to accept the potential benefits in the oil shock. Some economists have said it largely reflects an adverse demand shock in the global economy, so it is axiomatically bad news. Others have said that, even if it is a supply shock in the oil market, which would normally be beneficial, this time will be different, because it will be deflationary, and will therefore raise real interest rates.
How the hell could any economist say it "reflects an adverse demand shock"? Is this in the actual demand data that you can (order your grad student to) look up? Or are you really just saying "prices down proves demand must be down"? Is there really nothing else that affects prices?

Then again, this kind of ignorance should be expected from a "science" that can't even make advance predictions on oil prices.

Reuters - India to reap $12 billion budget bonus from oil slide. Probably an awful lot more of a benefit than this if oil drops to $40 - this is for an assumed future price of $70 oil. Gee, how much of this money will flow into gold, y'think?

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