Sunday, December 21, 2014

Some more weekend reading

Here's some weekend news for you:

BI - here were last year's 2014 analyst S&P 500 predictions. Every one of these clowns grossly undershot where we are today, except Tom Lee. Here's what he said:
Historically, bull markets lasting at least 4 years (since 1897) have only ended with a recession—that is, they typically do not end just because "everyone is too bullish."
He was right and everyone else is wrong, so we should probably pay attention to what he said.

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. More foreign weakness and US strength.

Calculated Risk - ATA trucking index up 3.5% in November. Thus the US economy is still growing.

Brett Steenbarger - is the market rally broadening or narrowing? What a dick, eh? I'll tell you what he says: it's broadening. Quote:
Given the expanding relative strength from the smaller caps, this does not appear to be a weakening market--which suggests that the rally should have legs.
Dickish move to put a question in the headline though.

Bloomberg - there's $1.7 trillion locked out of China's rally. Eugh - ASHR is limited in share creation because of foreigner buying quotas, so don't buy it: it's probably at a massive premium to NAV. I guess all you can do is buy the FXI-based crappy ETFs and hope for a fraction of the return; this really is a rally for Chinese people only.

Bloomberg - China purging foreign technology. I just finished Glenn Greenwald's No Place to Hide, and it notes that the NSA was stopping all server equipment and routers for export at the border to put bugs in them. So this isn't just some nationalist move by the Chinese. - bullish reversal in miners. Jojo notes GDXJ popped 50% in 2 months last year. I'll point out that the move came on a $200 pop in gold. It also came on a pop in gold ex-USD. If you want another pop like that this year in the miners, you'll need to see a pop in gold itself.

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