Tuesday, December 16, 2014

REGIME CHANGE IN CANADA: it's more likely than you think!

Globe & Mail - oil freefall: Canada braces for fallout. This affects Canada too:
Today, CIBC World Markets added its voice, in a new report on just how painful the shock could be to Canada.

“The recent dive in crude oil prices is an unprecedented development for the Canadian economy,” said CIBC economists Avery Shenfeld, Peter Buchanan and Warren Lovely.

“Even after allowing for the cushions provided by tighter heavy oil spreads and a weaker C$, the local currency value of a weighted index of Canadian barrels is down over 40 per cent in the last four months,” they added.

“That’s unprecedented since, while we’ve seen retreats of that magnitude before, the recent ones were demand-led corrections in which broader U.S. or global recessions did much of the economic damage to Canada.”
However, we're forgetting that there isn't any oil in Ontario, Quebec or BC, and those are the important provinces in Canada:
The provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador are in the eye of this storm, as is the federal government, when it comes to revenues.

Indeed, just yesterday, Alberta Premier Jim Prentice unveiled cost-cutting measures such as a “hiring restraint,” limited spending where possible, and curtailed “discretionary grants, travel, training and other related costs.”


Provinces such as Ontario and Quebec, of course, will get something of a boost from lower energy costs and a weaker dollar.
The upshot?

Frankly, I think this spells imminent regime change in Canada. How can Harper continue to promote Albertan politics when Alberta falls into recession? His power base will be gone, and I doubt he'll be able to muster enough strength in rural Ontario anymore once they have nothing left to whine about.

Finally the east rises again, and finally we send fascist Albertan politics back to where it came from.

Dunno if The Prince will be a good PM, but at least he's not a fascist pig.

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