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Saturday, December 13, 2014

News: Consumer sentiment skyrockets, gold ETF sees inflows, B2Gold still sucks

A bit more news:

Calculated Risk - preliminary consumer sentiment skyrockets. Really, check out this chart:

For the entirety of the post-2008 US economic malaise, consumer sentiment hasn't gotten this high. Above 94 is a reading that you only get about 10-15% of the time (from this chart, by inspection). Maybe this means inflation is right around the corner? Or maybe it means the consumer side of the US economy is back to firing on all cylinders? Obviously the rational response to this is to puke the S&P 500 another 10%, right?

Reuters - gold ETF sees inflows. If you use the gold ETF as a proxy for speculative interest in gold, then this is good: 5 tons of inflows, annualized, is enough to move the price of the marginal ounce, so let's hope this keeps up. Gold right now is priced near (or below?) the marginal ounce, which means speculative premium has been at zero or negative. And the inflow is good because it might mean that the move up in gold ex-USD has begun to be noticed by market participants.

And if you don't believe in the idea of speculative premium, please 'splain to me how oil can crash from $100 to $50 on no significant change in demand outlook. Was there really a $50 difference in the marginal barrel from demand(t-n) to demand(t)?

Mineweb - Otjikoto sees first pour ahead of schedule. Good news, right? Quote:
In the first five years of its initially planned twelve year mine life, the Otjikoto Mine is expected to produce approximately 141,000 ounces of gold per year at an average cash operating cost of $524 per ounce. For 2015 the anticipated figures are for the new mine to produce between 140,000 to 150,000 ounces of gold at a cash operating cost of approximately US$500 per ounce and all in sustaining costs of approximately $700 per ounce

Pre-development cost estimates of $244 million and deferred stripping estimates of $33 million remain in line with original pre-feasibility study estimates.

In November last year the company announced additional positive drilling results from its exploration program at the Wolfshag zone, adjacent to the planned Otjikoto pit. The company says that these positive results further indicate the potential to outline a higher grade resource that could lead to additional future expansion of production and an increase in the mine life.

Once the planned mill expansion is completed in the third quarter of 2015, B2Gold expects annual gold production at Otjikoto to increase to approximately 200,000 ounces in 2016 and 2017. Gold production would also be enhanced by the development of the Wolfshag zone should this go ahead as indicated.
And still B2 is under $2. Why? Cos everyone's underwater below $2.

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