Friday, December 12, 2014

Friday newsbits

Here's some more stuff:

Bespoke - more on the energy sector crash. Broad US markets are still above the points where they've turned around before. And here's their typical dry analysis:
Shocks to the system like this are not met with enthusiasm by investors, regardless of whether or not falling oil prices may ultimately be good for the economy. For now, it looks like oil is going to need to stabilize for the market to remain in rally mode.
I guess when you add in the Greece and Japan elections, we should expect a bigger selloff today?

New Deal Demoncrat - you can already see the effect of lower oil prices on the consumer. Retail sales are setting new highs. So quit selling the US markets!

Noah Smith - sometimes the markets are stupid. A very interesting modification of efficient market theory, which explains why your high-value stock can continue going down no matter how long and how loud so scream at your screen. Quote:
[...] market efficiency breaks down, because people have to know too much information in order to push a stock’s price to the right level. Instead of just knowing about a stock’s value, they have to know all kinds of things about what other investors know and what other investors are thinking.
In other words,it's not enough that your stock doesn't suck: the entire rest of the market has to clue in, or else your stock will continue sucking.

Reuters - Chinese thinkers recommend 7% growth target. And for those of you who don't know math, 7% this year is one hell of a lot bigger for the world economy than 10% in 2005.

Bloomberg - Mobius says China bull market is just getting started. I wouldn't care what he says, except he's still agreeing with Jim O'Neill - who is smarter than all of us.

Schwab - surging A-shares: what's next? Yeah, Michelle Gibley basically says it might still go up from here, but there might also be a correction. Basically, nothing of value. More Liz-Ann Sonders, less Michelle Gibley, please.

Reuters - lowering inflation improves chances of Indian rate cut. But what India really needs is infrastructure. By the way: I've started reading Piketty, and one interesting factoid I came across already is that India's per-capita output is the same as that in sub-Saharan Africa. Wow. That tells you how backward India still is. You going to continue insisting that Modi can fix this just by waving the magical handbag of Margaret Thatcher?

FT beyond brics - Donbas has been split into pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian enclaves. And now they're all being run by mafia, by the way. But that's okay because the Russian mafia reports directly to Putin. Read Putin's Kleptocracy. - London Mines & Money recap. His review isn't as funny as what mine would have been.

BI - Morgan Stanley on oil cash costs. The marginal barrel is $35-$40. So that's where the price goes when the commodity traders have all existed the market. By the way, the marginal ounce of gold is about where it is right now.

HuffPo - another leak about secret Luxembourg tax deals. Rob a person of $50, you're a thief; rob the people of $50 billion, you're a CEO. What does that make the criminal justice system, other than a system of repression of the proletariat by the capitalist class?

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